2011 Forecast-ying

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I had recently asked some friends from my Twitter lists for their take on 2011, atleast 3 of them responded back with the answer, 1 said they were still on it, and 1 claimed a recent office event.

Anyways- I take note of the view of forecasting from

http://www.uiah.fi/projekti/metodi/190.htm

The most primitive method of forecasting is guessing. The result may be rated acceptable if the person making the guess is an expert in the matter.

Ajay- people will forecast in end 2010 and 2011. many of them will get forecasts wrong, some very wrong, but by Dec 2011 most of them would be writing forecasts on 2012. almost no one will get called on by irate users-readers- (hey you got 4 out of 7 wrong last years forecast!) just wont happen. people thrive on hope. so does marketing. in 2011- and before

and some forecasts from Tom Davenport’s The International Institute for Analytics (IIA) at

http://iianalytics.com/2010/12/2011-predictions-for-the-analytics-industry/

Regulatory and privacy constraints will continue to hamper growth of marketing analytics.

(I wonder how privacy and analytics can co exist in peace forever- one view is that model building can use anonymized data suppose your IP address was anonymized using a standard secret Coco-Cola formula- then whatever model does get built would not be of concern to you individually as your privacy is protected by the anonymization formula)

Anyway- back to the question I asked-

What are the top 5 events in your industry (events as in things that occured not conferences) and what are the top 3 trends in 2011.

I define my industry as being online technology writing- research (with a heavy skew on stat computing)

My top 5 events for 2010 were-

1) Consolidation- Big 5 software providers in BI and Analytics bought more, sued more, and consolidated more.  The valuations rose. and rose. leading to even more smaller players entering. Thus consolidation proved an oxy moron as total number of influential AND disruptive players grew.

 

2) Cloudy Computing- Computing shifted from the desktop but to the mobile and more to the tablet than to the cloud. Ipad front end with Amazon Ec2 backend- yup it happened.

3) Open Source grew louder- yes it got more clients. and more revenue. did it get more market share. depends on if you define market share by revenues or by users.

Both Open Source and Closed Source had a good year- the pie grew faster and bigger so no one minded as long their slices grew bigger.

4) We didnt see that coming –

Technology continued to surprise with events (thats what we love! the surprises)

Revolution Analytics broke through R’s Big Data Barrier, Tableau Software created a big Buzz,  Wikileaks and Chinese FireWalls gave technology an entire new dimension (though not universally popular one).

people fought wars on emails and servers and social media- unfortunately the ones fighting real wars in 2009 continued to fight them in 2010 too

5) Money-

SAP,SAS,IBM,Oracle,Google,Microsoft made more money than ever before. Only Facebook got a movie named on itself. Venture Capitalists pumped in money in promising startups- really as if in a hurry to park money before tax cuts expired in some countries.

 

2011 Top Three Forecasts

1) Surprises- Expect to get surprised atleast 10 % of the time in business events. As internet grows the communication cycle shortens, the hype cycle amplifies buzz-

more unstructured data  is created (esp for marketing analytics) leading to enhanced volatility

2) Growth- Yes we predict technology will grow faster than the automobile industry. Game changers may happen in the form of Chrome OS- really its Linux guys-and customer adaptability to new USER INTERFACES. Design will matter much more in technology on your phone, on your desktop and on your internet. Packaging sells.

False Top Trend 3) I will write a book on business analytics in 2011. yes it is true and I am working with A publisher. No it is not really going to be a top 3 event for anyone except me,publisher and lucky guys who read it.

3) Creating technology and technically enabling creativity will converge at an accelerated rate. use of widgets, guis, snippets, ide will ensure creative left brains can code easier. and right brains can design faster and better due to a global supply chain of techie and artsy professionals.

 

 

RWui :Creating R Web Interfaces on the go

Here is a great R application created by http://sysbio.mrc-bsu.cam.ac.uk

R Wui for creating R Web Interfaces

its been there for some time now- but presumably R Apache is more well known.

From-

http://sysbio.mrc-bsu.cam.ac.uk/Rwui/tutorial/Rwui_Rnews_final.pdf

The web application Rwui is used to create web interfaces  for running R scripts. All the code is generated automatically so that a fully functional web interface for an R script can be downloaded and up and running in a matter of minutes.

Rwui is aimed at R script writers who have scripts that they want people unversed in R to use. The script writer uses Rwui to create a web application that will run their R script. Rwui allows the script writer to do this without them having to do any web application programming, because Rwui generates all the code for them.

The script writer designs the web application to run their R script by entering information on a sequence of web pages. The script writer then downloads the application they have created and installs it on their own server.

http://sysbio.mrc-bsu.cam.ac.uk/Rwui/tutorial/Technical_Report.pdf

Features of web applications created by Rwui

  1. Whole range of input items available if required – text boxes, checkboxes, file upload etc.
  2. Facility for uploading of an arbitrary number of files (for example, microarray replicates).
  3. Facility for grouping uploaded files (for example, into ‘Diseased’ and ‘Control’ microarray data files).
  4. Results files displayed on results page and available for download.
  5. Results files can be e-mailed to the user.
  6. Interactive results files using image maps.
  7. Repeat analyses with different parameters and data files – new results added to results list, as a link to the corresponding results page.
  8. Real time progress information (text or graphical) displayed when running the application.

Requirements

In order to use the completed web applications created by Rwui you will need:

  1. A Java webserver such as Tomcat version 5.5 or later.
  2. Java version 1.5
  3. R – a version compatible with your R script(s).

Using Rwui

Using Rwui to create a web application for an R script simply involves:

  1. Entering details about your Rscript on a sequence of web pages.
  2. Rwui is quite flexible so you can backtrack, edit and insert, as you design your application.
  3. Rwui then generates the web application, which is Java based and platform independent.
  4. The application can be downloaded either as a .zip or .tgz file.
  5. Unpacked, the download contains all the source code and a .war file.
  6. Once the .war file is copied to the Tomcat webapps directory, the application is ready to use.
  7. Application details are saved in an ‘application definition file’ for reuse and modification.
Interested-
go click and check out a new web app from http://sysbio.mrc-bsu.cam.ac.uk/Rwui/ in a matter of minutes
Also see

Tale of Two Analytical Interfaces

Occam’s razor (or Ockham’s razor[1]) is often expressed in Latin as the lex parsimoniae(translating to the law of parsimonylaw of economy or law of succinctness). The principle is popularly summarized as “the simplest explanation is more likely the correct one.

Using a simple screenshot- you can see Facebook Analytics for a Facebook page is simpler at explaining who is coming to visit rather than Google Analytics Dashboard (which has not seen the attention of a Visual UI or Graphic Redesign)

And if Facebook is going to take over the internet, well it is definitely giving better analytics in the process. What do you think?

Which Interface is simpler- and gives you better targeting. Ignore the numbers and just see the metrics measured and the way they are presented. Coincidently R is used at Facebook a lot (which has given the jjplot package)- and Google has NOT INVESTED MAJOR MONEY in creating Premium R Packages or Big Data Packages. I am talking investment at the scale Google is known for- not measly meetups.

(the summer of code dont count- it is for students mostly)

(but thanks for the Pizza G Men- and maybe revise that GA interface by putting a razor to some metrics)

GA vs Facebook Analytics

 

Facebook Gmail Killer Threatens to commit Hara Kari live on AOL Techcrunch if unsucessful

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As per Techcrunchhttp://techcrunch.com/2010/11/11/facebook-gmail-titan/

Project Titan — a web-based email client that we hear is unofficially referred to internally as its “Gmail killer”. Now we’ve heard from sources that this is indeed what’s coming on Monday during Facebook’s special event, alongside personal @facebook.com email addresses for users.

Now Techcrunch always tells the Truth and the Gospel as per Mike is always right, especially when he is talking of gates of heaven and Angels.

Again as per the newly rich Mike Arringotn (who qualifies to be an Angel Investor himself except AOL has locked in his err wings)

Our understanding is that this is more than just a UI refresh for Facebook’s existing messaging service with POP access tacked on. Rather, Facebook is building a full-fledged webmail client, and while it may only be in early stages come its launch Monday, there’s a huge amount of potential here.

Facebook has the world’s most popular photos product, the most popular events product, and soon will have a very popular local deals product as well.  It can tweak the design of its webmail client to display content from each of these in a seamless fashion (and don’t forget messages from games, or payments via Facebook Credits). And there’s also the social element: Facebook knows who your friends are and how closely you’re connected to them; it can probably do a pretty good job figuring out which personal emails you want to read most and prioritize them accordingly.

Oh, and assuming our sources prove accurate, this explains the timing of the Google/Facebook slap fight over contact information.

In an exclusive chat with Decisionstats, Senior VP Eduard Patel Bumberg said- This is it. I am going to kill Gmail. This movie I just had  a small part in the mens room while they had the groupies. If we finally kill Gmail, I hope to get a much bigger part in Social Network 3.

New The new Facebook email gives you lesses spam (primarily) as it leans on its contacts in the Cosa Nostra of Spam- and tell them no spam to .fb books.

Yes Anyone is someone in spam has had a connection in the spam pie in Facebook, like creating duplicate 50 million accounts just before the movie got launched, inflating the number of daily Farmville players, invites, links .

Arringutan even covered some of it in an earlier FB game called scamville.

Saint Mark and Mike would have approved Senior VP Eduard Patel Bumberg decision to either kill Gmail or commit hara kari live on U Stream. It is good for the sequel.

New Google Ad Planner

Dusan's User Interface challenge
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The new Google Ad Planner is really nice-seems better than old Adwords interface, though needs a UI redesign before it can complete with the clean cut slice and dice of Facebook Ad Planner.

It’s the interface, stupid that makes an Iphone sell more than the Symbian even with 90% functionality. Same reasons why Google Storage is okay but Google Prediction API gets slower liftoff than Amazon Console (now with FREE instances) – though the R interface to Prediction API sure helps.

Prediction API is a terrific tool dying for oxygen out there (and will end up like Wave- I hope not)

Sometimes you need artists as well as engineers to design query tools, G Men- and guess the Double Click anti trust rumours have quietened down enough because why the heck did double click interface integration take so loooong.

( and btw why cant Google just get into the multi billion dashboard business if they can manage ALL the data IN THE INTERNET ——they sure can do it for specific companies- – but wait-

they are probably waiting for AsterData to stop sucking thumbs ,chanting on MapReduce SQL,  MapReduce SQL nursery rhymes and start inventing NEW STUFF again (or atleast creating two product brands from nCluster (when you and I were in school together giggle)

Btw the time Google make up their mind to enter BI or wait for Aster to finish- IBM would have gulped and burped all there it is- and thats the way that market rolls.

Back to Ad s and Mad Men.

Here are some screenshots-of the new Google Ad Planner-

I found it useful to review traffic for third party websites (even better than Google Trends) and thats a definite plus over Facebooks closed dormitory world of ads.

Click on them for some more views or go straight to http://google.com/adplanner and Enjoy Baby!

Which websites attract your target customers?

View a site listing: 

Ad Planner top 1,000 sites

Refine your online advertising with DoubleClick Ad Planner, a free media planning tool that can help you:

Identify websites your target customers are likely to visit

  • Define audiences by demographics and interests.
  • Search for websites relevant to your target audience.
  • Access unique users, page views, and other data for millions of websites from over 40 countries.

Easily build media plans for yourself or your clients

  • Create lists of websites where you’d like to advertise.
  • Generate aggregated website statistics for your media plan.

and

Take charge of your DoubleClick Ad Planner site listing

View a site listing: 

Ad Planner top 1,000 sites

DoubleClick Ad Planner is a media planning tool where advertisers find sites for their media buys. As a site owner, you can access the DoubleClick Ad Planner Publisher Center and
Market your site
Write a site description to present your audience and unique value to advertisers.
Help advertisers search for you
Choose categories for your site and ad formats you support.
Improve the data that advertisers see
Share your Google Analytics data to reflect the most accurate traffic numbers for your site.

 

Interview James Dixon Pentaho

Here is an interview with James Dixon the founder of Pentaho, self confessed Chief Geek and CTO. Pentaho has been growing very rapidly and it makes open source Business Intelligence solutions- basically the biggest chunk of enterprise software market currently.

Ajay-  How would you describe Pentaho as a BI product for someone who is completely used to traditional BI vendors (read non open source). Do the Oracle lawsuits over Java bother you from a business perspective?

James-

Pentaho has a full suite of BI software:

* ETL: Pentaho Data Integration

* Reporting: Pentaho Reporting for desktop and web-based reporting

* OLAP: Mondrian ROLAP engine, and Analyzer or Jpivot for web-based OLAP client

* Dashboards: CDF and Dashboard Designer

* Predictive Analytics: Weka

* Server: Pentaho BI Server, handles web-access, security, scheduling, sharing, report bursting etc

We have all of the standard BI functionality.

The Oracle/Java issue does not bother me much. There are a lot of software companies dependent on Java. If Oracle abandons Java a lot resources will suddenly focus on OpenJDK. It would be good for OpenJDK and might be the best thing for Java in the long term.

Ajay-  What parts of Pentaho’s technology do you personally like the best as having an advantage over other similar proprietary packages.

Describe the latest Pentaho for Hadoop offering and Hadoop/HIVE ‘s advantage over say Map Reduce and SQL.

James- The coolest thing is that everything is pluggable:

* ETL: New data transformation steps can be added. New orchestration controls (job entries) can be added. New perspectives can be added to the design UI. New data sources and destinations can be added.

* Reporting: New content types and report objects can be added. New data sources can be added.

* BI Server: Every factory, engine, and layer can be extended or swapped out via configuration. BI components can be added. New visualizations can be added.

This means it is very easy for Pentaho, partners, customers, and community member to extend our software to do new things.

In addition every engine and component can be fully embedded into a desktop or web-based application. I made a youtube video about our philosophy: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uMyR-In5nKE

Our Hadoop offerings allow ETL developers to work in a familiar graphical design environment, instead of having to code MapReduce jobs in Java or Python.

90% of the Hadoop use cases we hear about are transformation/reporting/analysis of structured/semi-structured data, so an ETL tool is perfect for these situations.

Using Pentaho Data Integration reduces implementation and maintenance costs significantly. The fact that our ETL engine is Java and is embeddable means that we can deploy the engine to the Hadoop data nodes and transform the data within the nodes.

Ajay-  Do you think the combination of recession, outsourcing,cost cutting, and unemployment are a suitable environment for companies to cut technology costs by going out of their usual vendor lists and try open source for a change /test projects.

Jamie- Absolutely. Pentaho grew (downloads, installations, revenue) throughout the recession. We are on target to do 250% of what we did last year, while the established vendors are flat in terms of new license revenue.

Ajay-  How would you compare the user interface of reports using Pentaho versus other reporting software. Please feel free to be as specific.

James- We have all of the everyday, standard reporting features covered.

Over the years the old tools, like Crystal Reports, have become bloated and complicated.

We don’t aim to have 100% of their features, because we’d end us just as complicated.

The 80:20 rule applies here. 80% of the time people only use 20% of their features.

We aim for 80% feature parity, which should cover 95-99% of typical use cases.

Ajay-  Could you describe the Pentaho integration with R as well as your relationship with Weka. Jaspersoft already has a partnership with Revolution Analytics for RevoDeployR (R on a web server)-

Any  R plans for Pentaho as well?

James- The feature set of R and Weka overlap to a small extent – both of them include basic statistical functions. Weka is focused on predictive models and machine learning, whereas R is focused on a full suite of statistical models. The creator and main Weka developer is a Pentaho employee. We have integrated R into our ETL tool. (makes me happy 🙂 )

(probably not a good time to ask if SAS integration is done as well for a big chunk of legacy base SAS/ WPS users)

About-

As “Chief Geek” (CTO) at Pentaho, James Dixon is responsible for Pentaho’s architecture and technology roadmap. James has over 15 years of professional experience in software architecture, development and systems consulting. Prior to Pentaho, James held key technical roles at AppSource Corporation (acquired by Arbor Software which later merged into Hyperion Solutions) and Keyola (acquired by Lawson Software). Earlier in his career, James was a technology consultant working with large and small firms to deliver the benefits of innovative technology in real-world environments.

Cisco SocialMiner

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A new product from Cisco to mine social media for analytics on sentiment-

http://www.cisco.com/en/US/products/ps11349/index.html

Cisco SocialMiner is a social media customer care solution that can help you proactively respond to customers and prospects communicating through public social media networks like Twitter, Facebook, or other public forums or blogging sites. By providing social media monitoring, queuing, and workflow to organize customer posts on social media networks and deliver them to your social media customer care team, your company can respond to customers in real time using the same social network they are using.

Cisco SocialMiner provides:

  • The ability to configure multiple campaigns to search for customer postings on the public social web about your company’s products, services, or area of expertise
  • Filtering of social contacts based on preconfigured campaign filters to focus campaign searches
  • Routing of social contacts to skilled customer care representatives in the contact center or to experts in the enterprise–multiple people can work together to handle responses to customer postings through shared work queues
  • Detailed metrics for social media customer care activities, campaign reports, and team reports

With Cisco SocialMiner, your company can listen and respond to customer conversations originating in the social web. Being proactive can help your company enhance its service, improve customer loyalty, garner new customers, and protect your brand.

Table 1. Features and Benefits of Cisco SocialMiner 8.5

Feature Benefits
Product Baseline Features
Social media feeds

• Feeds are configurable sources to capture public social contacts that contain specific words, terms, or phrases.

• Feeds enable you to search for information on the public social web about your company’s products, services, or area of expertise.

• Cisco SocialMiner supports the following types of feeds:

• Facebook

• Twitter
Campaign management

• Groups feeds into campaigns to organize all posting activity related to a product category or business objective

• Produces metrics on campaign activity

• Provides the ability to configure multiple campaigns to search for customer postings on specific products or services

• Groups social contacts for handling by the social media customer care team

• Enables filtering of social contacts based on preconfigured campaign filters to focus campaign searches
Route and queue social contacts

• Enables routing of social contacts to skilled customer care representatives in the contact center

• Draws on expertise in the enterprise by allowing multiple people in the enterprise to work together to handle responses to customer postings through shared work queues

• Enables automated distribution of work to improve efficiency and effectiveness of social media engagement
Tagging

• Allows work to be routed to the appropriate team by grouping each post or social contact into different categories; for example, a post can be marked with the “customer_support” tag; this post will then appear on a customer support agent’s queue for processing
Social media customer care metrics

• Provides detailed metrics on social media customer care activities, campaign reports, and team reports

• Measures work and results

• Manages to service-level goals

• Supports brand management

• Optimizes staffing

• Includes dashboarding of social media posting activity when Cisco Unified Intelligence Center is used
Reporting for social contacts

• Provides a reporting database that can be accessed using any reporting tool, including Cisco Unified Intelligence Center

• Enables customer care management to accurately report on and track social media interactions by the contact center
OpenSocial-compliant gadgets

Representational State Transfer (REST) application programming interfaces (APIs)

• Provides flexible user interface options

• Enables extensive opportunities for customization
Optional integration with full suite of Cisco Collaboration tools

• Allows you to take advantage of the full suite of Cisco Collaboration tools, including Cisco Quad, Cisco Show and Share, and Cisco Pulse technology, to help your social media customer care team quickly find answers to help customers efficiently and effectively

• Easy to maintain with existing IT personnel
Operating Environment
Cisco Unified Computing System(UCS) C-Series or B-Series Servers

• Requires a Cisco UCS C-Series or B-Series Server.

• Server consolidation means lower cost per server with Cisco UCS Servers.
Architecture
Scalability

• One server supports up to 30 simultaneous social media customer care users and 10,000 social contacts per hour.
Management
Cisco Unified Real-Time Monitoring Tool (RTMT)

• Operational management is enhanced through integration with the Cisco Unified RTMT, providing consistent application monitoring across Cisco Unified Communications Solutions.
Simple Network Management Protocol (SNMP)

• SNMP with an associated MIB is supported through the Cisco Voice Operating System (VOS).
Reporting
Cisco Unified Intelligence Center

• Create customizable reports of social media customer care events using Cisco Unified Intelligence Center (purchased separately).