Happy $100 Billion to Mark Zuckerberg Productions !

Heres to an expected $100 billion market valuation to the latest Silicon Valley Legend, Facebook- A Mark Zuckerberg Production.

Some milestones that made FB what it is-

1) Beating up MySpace, Ibibo, Google Orkut combined

2) Smart timely acquisitions from Friend feed , to Instagram

3) Superb infrastructure for 900 million accounts, fast interface rollouts, and a policy of never deleting data. Some of this involved creating new technology like Cassandra. There have been no anti-trust complaints against FB’s behavior particularly as it simply stuck to being the cleanest interface offering a social network

4) Much envied and copied features like Newsfeed, App development on the FB platform, Social Gaming as revenue streams

5) Replacing Google as the hot techie employer, just like Google did to Microsoft.

6) An uncanny focus, including walking away from a billion dollars from Yahoo,resisting Google, Apple’s Ping, imposing design changes unilaterally, implementing data sharing only with flexible partners  and strategic investors (like Bing)

FB has made more money for more people than any other company in the past ten years. Here’s wishing it an even more interesting next ten years! With 900 million users if they could integrate a PayPal like system, or create an alternative to Adsense for content creators, they could create an all new internet economy – one which is more open than the Google dominated internet ; 0

 

Facebook Search- The fall of the machines

Increasingly I am beginning to search more and more on Facebook. This is for the following reasons-

1) Facebook is walled off to Google (mostly). While within Facebook , I get both people results and content results (from Bing).

Bing is an okay alternative , though not as fast as Google Instant.

2) Cleaner Web Results When Facebook increases the number of results from 3 top links to say 10 top links, there should be more outbound traffic from FB search to websites.For some reason Google continues to show 14 pages of results… Why? Why not limit to just one page.

3) Better People Search than  Pipl and Google. But not much (or any) image search. This is curious and I am hoping the Instagram results would be added to search results.

4) I am hoping for any company Facebook or Microsoft to challenge Adsense . Adwords already has rivals. Adsense is a de facto monopoly and my experiences in advertising show that content creators can make much more money from a better Adsense (especially ) if Adsense and Adwords do not have a conflict of interest from same advertisers.

Adwords should have been a special case of Adsense for Google.com but it is not.

5) Machine learning can only get you from tau to delta tau. When ad click behavior is inherently dependent on humans who behave mostly on chaotic , or genetic models than linear CPC models. I find FB has an inherent advantage in the quantity and quality of data collected on people behavior rather than click behavior. They are also more aggressive and less apologetic about behavorially targeted  ads.

Additional point- Analytics for Google Analytics is not as rich as analytics from Facebook pages in terms of demographic variables. This can be tested by anyone.

 

Quantitative Modeling for Arbitrage Positions in Ad KeyWords Internet Marketing

Assume you treat an ad keyword as an equity stock. There are slight differences in the cost for advertising for that keyword across various locations (Zurich vs Delhi) and various channels (Facebook vs Google) . You get revenue if your website ranks naturally in organic search for the keyword, and you have to pay costs for getting traffic to your website for that keyword.
An arbitrage position is defined as a riskless profit when cost of keyword is less than revenue from keyword. We take examples of Adsense  and Adwords primarily.
There are primarily two types of economic curves on the foundation of which commerce of the  internet  resides-
1) Cost Curve- Cost of Advertising to drive traffic into the website  (Google Adwords, Twitter Ads, Facebook , LinkedIn ads)
2) Revenue Curve – Revenue from ads clicked by the incoming traffic on website (like Adsense, LinkAds, Banner Ads, Ad Sharing Programs , In Game Ads)
The cost and revenue curves are primarily dependent on two things
1) Type of KeyWord-Also subdependent on
a) Location of Prospective Customer, and
b) Net Present Value of Good and Service to be eventually purchased
For example , keyword for targeting sales of enterprise “business intelligence software” should ideally be costing say X times as much as keywords for “flower shop for birthdays” where X is the multiple of the expected payoffs from sales of business intelligence software divided by expected payoff from sales of flowers (say in Location, Daytona Beach ,Florida or Austin, Texas)
2) Traffic Volume – Also sub-dependent on Time Series and
a) Seasonality -Annual Shoppping Cycle
b) Cyclicality– Macro economic shifts in time series
The cost and revenue curves are not linear and ideally should be continuous in a definitive exponential or polynomial manner, but in actual reality they may have sharp inflections , due to location, time, as well as web traffic volume thresholds
Type of Keyword – For example ,keywords for targeting sales for Eminem Albums may shoot up in a non linear manner after the musician dies.
The third and not so publicly known component of both the cost and revenue curves is factoring in internet industry dynamics , including relative market share of internet advertising platforms, as well as percentage splits between content creator and ad providing platforms.
For example, based on internet advertising spend, people belive that the internet advertising is currently heading for a duo-poly with Google and Facebook are the top two players, while Microsoft/Skype/Yahoo and LinkedIn/Twitter offer niche options, but primarily depend on price setting from Google/Bing/Facebook.
It is difficut to quantify  the elasticity and efficiency of market curves as most literature and research on this is by in-house corporate teams , or advisors or mentors or consultants to the primary leaders in a kind of incesteous fraternal hold on public academic research on this.
It is recommended that-
1) a balance be found in the need for corporate secrecy to protest shareholder value /stakeholder value maximization versus the need for data liberation for innovation and grow the internet ad pie faster-
2) Cost and Revenue Curves between different keywords, time,location, service providers, be studied by quants for hedging inetrent ad inventory or /and choose arbitrage positions This kind of analysis is done for groups of stocks and commodities in the financial world, but as commerce grows on the internet this may need more specific and independent quants.
3) attention be made to how cost and revenue curves mature as per level of sophistication of underlying economy like Brazil, Russia, China, Korea, US, Sweden may be in different stages of internet ad market evolution.
For example-
A study in cost and revenue curves for certain keywords across domains across various ad providers across various locations from 2003-2008 can help academia and research (much more than top ten lists of popular terms like non quantitative reports) as well as ensure that current algorithmic wightings are not inadvertently given away.
Part 2- of this series will explore the ways to create third party re-sellers of keywords and measuring impacts of search and ad engine optimization based on keywords.

Analyzing AdSense

I ran a recent experiment on my website- subjugating it to CTR ads (and not just the banner ads). Of course there is hardly a choice I have except for Google Adsense-and let me know if you know any reliable alternatives.

This is what the analytics says

So basically 43 ads out of 147,305 Ads were clicked.

This makes a Google Adsense ad/algorithm/you almost 99.971% of the time to ignore it, ( I am assuming some of the 147,362 ads which were not clicked were a bit annoying)

So I apologize to yall -Adsense aint making no sense, as they would say in old Tennessee

Still $12 per month when directed to charity is good enough…I donated some to Wikipedia.

$19.77 AdSense Revenue
$0.42 AdSense Revenue / 1000 Visits
43 AdSense Ads Clicked
0.00 AdSense Ads Clicked / Visit
0.09% AdSense CTR
$0.42 AdSense eCPM
147,305 AdSense Ads Viewed
2.92 AdSense Unit Impressions / Visit
46,585 AdSense Page Impressions
0.99 AdSense Page Impressions / Visit

Search Engine Advertising sweet spot for arbitrage.

Assume I am a blogger using both Adsense and Adwords.

Suppose Adwords costs me X dollars per click, and Adsense pays me Y dollars per click.

Then a unique arbitrage opportunity would arise if

Y times CTR on my blog > X times CTR on my Ad Campaign

Is it possible. Theoretically yes? Long Tail of Internet yes.

However since there is a lag of time in which the Rates would converge , the Adsense rate would go lower or Adwords rate would go higher

Is there a tool that you can use to pump keywords with short times arbitrage opportunities , much like trading algols and quants do in finance.

Just asking !

 Hint- Its a trick math puzzle 🙂

 

Why does Matt (of WordPress) hate Matt (of Google)

Biz Stone, co-founder of Twitter
Image via Wikipedia

I want to show some bad ads of Google Ad sense. I pay through my nose for video upgrades and extra space to keep people happy.

120,000 views in 2010

Money earned By Matt (of WordPress)= $$$$$ from me

Money earned by Mutt -(thats me)= 000,000,000

Please allow me to run ads on wordpress.com

or create your own fucking ad networks

but do it PHAST.

ESLE blog trsnfer using Blog Export, divide Xml file into 13 files  using Notepad copy and paste

go to Appspot

Convert files to Blogger files\

Thats the company BIZ stone OF tWITTER  made

before these Two matts got into dog fights.

https://wordpress2blogger.appspot.com/

Ever wanted to move your WordPress blogs over to Blogger? This site can aid in the process!

Instructions

  1. Login to your WordPress account and navigate to the Dashboard for the blog that you’d like to transfer to Blogger.
  2. Click on the Manage tab below the Blog name.
  3. Click on the Export link below the Manage tab.
  4. Download the WordPress WXR export file by clicking on Download Export File.
  5. Save this file to your local machine.
  6. Browse to that saved document with the form below and click Convert.
     
  7. Save this file to your local machine. This file will be the contents of your posts/comments from WordPress in a Blogger export file.
  8. Login to your Blogger or create a new user.
  9. Once logged in, click on the Create a Blog link from the user dashboard, and then click on the Import Blog Tool
  10. Follow the instructions and upload your Blogger export file when prompted.
  11. After completing the import wizard, you should have a set of imported posts from WordPress that you can now publish to Blogger. Have fun!

NOTE: This hosted application will only allow downloads smaller than 1MB.

For information on how to run this conversion on your own, visit the open source project hosted at code.google.com

Powered by Google App Engine

Increasing views to Youtube Videos

YouTube
Image via Wikipedia

The Youtube Promoted Videos (basically a video form of Adsense) can really help companies like Oracle, SAP, IBM, Netezza, SAS Insititute, AsterData, Rapid Miner, Pentaho,  JasperSoft, Teradata, Revolution who create

either corporate videos/training videos or upload their seminar, webinar,conference videos to Youtube.

Making a video is hard work in itself- doing an A/ B test with Youtube Promoted videos might just get a better ROI for your video marketing budget and IMHO embeddable videos from Youtube are much better and easier to share than Videos that can be seen only after registration on a company web site. You want to get the word out for your software, or you want to get website views?