Month: November 2016

Data Analytics post Demonetization in India

The demonetisation of ₹500 and ₹1000 banknotes was a policy enacted by the Government of India on 8 November 2016.

The announcement was made by the Prime Minister  Narendra Modi .PM  Modi declared that use of all ₹500 and ₹1000 banknotes would be invalid from midnight  and announced the issuance of new ₹500 and ₹2000 banknotes in exchange for the old banknotes.

The government claimed that the demonetisation was an effort to stop counterfeiting of the current banknotes allegedly used for funding terrorism, as well as a crack down on black money in the country. The move was described as an effort to reduce corruption, the use of drugs, and smuggling.

(source – https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indian_500_and_1000_rupee_note_demonetisation )

 

This led to huge lines of people  outside banks and ATMs to withdraw new notes for daily needs and depositing cash to exchange notes f older denominations.

This also leads to a huge data analytics opportunity for data science to serve treasury and tax departments of India. The following data points would be of particular scrutiny for Indian data scientists helping or om contract to Indian Govt.

  1. Fraud– This would examine data points where inactive and dormant bank accounts suddenly had a huge inflow of cash. This data would be further matched and merged with income tax records using PAN CARD as a matching and AADHAR CARD too. Additional matching keys would be Name, Date of Birth, Address
  2. Terrorism – Terrorism in India is specific to a few geographic areas like Jammu and Kashmir and Naxalite areas. These could be further analyzed for fine tume of unusual currency patterns
  3. Cashless modes for laundering money ( Anti Money Laundering)- Plastic Money and Mobile apps saw a huge upsurge for transactions. This could be further used for additional sources of information since KYC norms of Telecom need Identification and so do Bank Accounts.
  4. Specific sectors- Land (real estate), Jewelery and other high value, high ticket items can be scrutinized

 

Overall data will be huge, so choosing the right database combination as well as the analytic (including especialy Big Data Spatial Analytics) could be key to help the current PM ‘s ambitious vision to transform India’s economy.

Comments are welcome.

The Hack of the Century

  • Fake news propogated by social media just before the US General Election
  • Hacking of Democratic Party by hackers of East European Russian origin /affiliation coordinating publication of leaked emails
  • Leaked emails by hackers causing FBI chief to make fateful statement days before election
  • Recanting of statement by FBI chief further undermining Clintonian credibility

I really think- given the margin of victory- that general elections 2016 in USA was the hack of the century. Cyber players influenced enough to tip the scales slightly.

So folks, there would be no Khaleesi after all, yall. Thanks for watching. We will be back, say in 4 years

14543535534530

 

PESTLE Analysis of Barack H Obama’s Presidency

On Nov , 2008 I wrote the article on using PESTLE for analyzing 43 POTUS.

https://decisionstats.com/2008/11/02/pestle-analysis-of-george-w-bushs-presidency-2/

 

The article tries to use the PESTLE ( details below ) analysis framework for analyzing the 43 President of United States. It may be a bit biased , as all articles written by men are. It will try its best to be faithful to the facts , and not to the opinions surrounding this President.

The PESTLE framework stands for –

  • Political
  • Economic
  • Social
  • Technological
  • Legal
  • Environmental.
It will rate the Presidency as a Presidency, means it will evaluate his tenure as leader of the United States, not of the free world or anything else he was not elected or declared by the Supreme Court to be ( pun unintended). Scores are from 1 to 10, but you are free to comment with your own rating scores.
 I am writing this on July 30, 2016 for analyzing Barack H Obama‘s Presidency using PESTLE framework.
Political-5
 A change from 8 years of Republican to 8 years of Democratic politics was made with a relatively inexperienced senator following a relatively experienced governor to be POTUS
The United States retreated from the preemptive doctrine to eliminate hostile nations by September 11.It used special forces and drones to be selective in military action and used social media for enabling change. It retreated but not fully from a successful war in Afghanistan . The inability to deal with ISIS with a coalition is a big failure. The breach with Europe over the Iraq war has largely been remedied new threats from ISIS. Overall the United States gained diplomatic leverage in 8 years but lost political leverage
Both on  North Korean , and ISIS it failed. No tangible progress on climate change was made. Isolationism gained ground as political capital was spent getting healthcare passed but the initiative was lost in terms of current domestic politics. Cuba detente and Arab revolutions were a change. POTUS 44 promised hope and change but he did deliver change.
Economic-8
In terms of job creation, and economic growth POTUS 44 presided over the best period of growth and the best period of spin on this front since Bill Clinton. Remarkably economic growth happened as financial crisis eased but war driven spending eased. Keynesian spending on bailouts was corrupt and unethical but proved effective for the financial sector bailout
Social- 7
The Obama era was categorized by even more partisan politics amplified by social media, as the first black POTUS failed to prevent black men from being legally killed leading to Black Lives Matter movement and the killings of police by black men. Gun control debates were remarkable partisan and enhanced, the gains in gay equality were almost  lost in a nighclub in Orlando as repeated ISIS attempts tested the great melting pot.
The  standards of health care for the average American citizen remain a concern compared to rest of developing world, and immigration reform is now a partisan matter., and the rising income  rhetoric this as one of the most under performing sector of the 44 rd presidency. While the Bush presidency is marked for both generous aid to Africa, the Obama era proved prone to a few charges of hypocritical elitism in its defensive way of not defending black America against social tensions. The dreams of the mother will take a village to give back the audacity of hope to one of largest incarcerated societies in the world.
Technology-9
American innovation chugged on, but FB and Google both came up despite and inspite Bush. Today Uber, Air BNB, Whatsapp and Facebook Live offer innovation and  changes to the world not just America. On a disappointing note, climate change innovation was largely either absent or not shared openly.
Legal-3
Astonishingly POTUS 44 chose legal nihilism for selective targeting for US citizens. This included cyber whistle blowers like Snowden and propaganda from clerics. Rather than shutting down the ability to speak, POTUS 44 enhanced the ability to kill legally without involving Congress
Environmental-7
Environmental record by a President was better thanks to a good call on delaying the Canadian pipeline and more investment in alternative sources.  Not much was achieved in effective environmental change that addresses climate change

In summary ,

the Obama presidency would be judged much later for how much good or bad it actually did versus how much it got criticized for, but it did became one of the most historic presidencies
Conclusion- POTUS 44 disappointed  domestic audiences on the expectations it raised at start in 2008 and this shall be an important factor for evaluation in terms of historical legacy)
TO BE EXPANDED AND UPDATED