FarmVille – DECISION STATS

Facebook IPO- Do you feel lucky?

2 Jan 2011 dealbook.nytimes.com

Facebook has raised $500 million from Goldman Sachs and a Russian investor in a transaction that values the company at $50 billion

29 Jan 2011 -www.bloomberg.com-$82.9-billion

14 Jun 2011-CNBC———————-$100 billion

27 Jun 2011 -news.cnet.com———-$70 billion

27 Sep 2011-Venturebeat.com——-$82.5 billion

100 billion valuation divided by 1000 million subscribers

=100 $ net present value of ad profit (note if 80 billion valuation with 800 million subscribers it is the same)

=250 $ net present value of ad revenues (assuming 40 % profitability)

=2500 $ net present value of online purchases by Facebook ad clicking customer

(assuming advertisers dedicate 10% of revenue to advertising by Facebook)

and the lucky Russian Investor who invested at 50 billion valuation only to see it double in six months, where else has he inVested

http://nymag.com/daily/intel/2011/01/facebooks_russian_investor_hel.html

Digital Sky Technologies co-founder Yuri Milner, who co-invested in the Goldman-Facebook deal, enviably poised in the middle. DST has been investing early and aggressively in some of the biggest names in the tech bubble boom like Facebook (DST first invested in May 2009), Zynga (the company that makes Farmville and Cityville for Facebook), and Groupon (the dudes that just turned down Google’s $6 billion).

NOTE -Both groupon and Zynga IPO investors lost money as they are now below IPO price.

http://openchannel.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2011/01/05/5771129-russian-facebook-investors-have-sparked-us-concerns

More on Digital Sky Tech and Yuri Milner and the free internet in Putin’s Russia

Digital Sky got particular attention because of its broad control of the Russian Internet. DNI noted that the company is “a dominant force in the Runet,” owning the most popular Websites in the former Soviet Union, including Russia, Ukraine, Kazakhstan, Georgia, and Armenia as well as others in the Czech Republic and Poland. By some estimates it reported “over 70 percent of all page views in the Russian-language Internet are on its companies’ Websites.”

From Wall Street Journal-

May 1, 2011

http://www.zdnet.com/blog/facebook/wsj-facebook-growth-exceeds-expectations-100-billion-valuation-justifiable/1306

Last month, a private-market transaction of 100,000 shares of Facebook Class B Common Stock priced at $32.00 apiece gave the website a valuation of $80 billion. Two months ago, Facebook was valued at $65 billion, when investment firm General Atlantic reportedly bought 0.1 percent of Facebook by purchasing roughly 2.5 million Facebook shares from former Facebook employees. Three months ago, Kleiner Perkins Caufield & Byers (KPCB) invested $38 million in Facebook, which was only worth 0.00073 percent of the social network, but still resulted in a valuation of $52 billion.

Something is gotta give?

Go ahead and Please. Buy Facebook Stock !

Do you feel lucky?

Research on Social Games

Social Gaming is slightly different from arcade gaming, and the heavy duty PSP3, XBox, Wii world of gaming. Some observations on my research ( 😉 ) on social gaming across internet is as follows-

There are mostly 3 types of social games-

1) Quest- Build a town/area/farm to earn in game money or points

2) Fight- fight other people /players /pigs earn in game money or points

3) Puzzle- Stack up, make three of a kind, etc

Most successful social games are a crossover between the above three kinds of social games (so build and fight, or fight and puzzle etc)

In addition most social games have some in game incentives that are peculiar to social networks only. In game incentives are mostly in game cash to build, energy to fight others, or shortcuts in puzzle games. These social gaming incentives are-

1) Some incentive to log in daily/regularly/visit game site more often

2) Some incentive to invite other players on the social network

A characteristic of this domain is blatant me-too, copying and ripping creative ideas (but not the creative itself) from other social games. In general the successful game which is the early leader gets most of the players but other game studios can and do build up substantial long tail network of players by copying games. Thus there are a huge variety of games.

However there are massive hits like Farmville and Angry Birds, that prove that a single social game well executed can be very valuable and profitable to both itself as well as the primary social network hosting it.

Accordingly the leading game studios are Zynga, Electronic Arts and (yes) Microsoft while Google has been mostly a investor in these.

A good website for studying data about social games is http://www.appdata.com/ while a sister website for studying developments is http://www.insidesocialgames.com/

As you can see below Appdata is a formidable data gatherer here (though I find the top App – Static HTML as both puzzling and a sign of un corrected automated data gathering),

but I expect more competition in this very lucrative segment.

Google Plus Games : Crime City or Fun with Funzio on G+

Probably the best designed game on Google Plus right now is Funzio’s Crime City at Google Plus

Funzio which has Zynga alumni http://www.funzio.com/games/ creates a mix of the best games in social game history Farmville and Mafia Wars (with some ideas from the classic Dope Wars) to make https://plus.google.com/u/0/games/865772480172

CRIME CITY

Zynga better hurry up with Farmville on this new G+ platform and the new platform needs to sort some teeny quality issues (which I shall elaborate later)

Poets and Hackers

analysts analyze bloggers blog but scientists research

if hackers hack and writers write why dont poets poe

or maybe everybody is a closet poet

some write prose some write code

some play in ones and zeros some play with images

some with video while most stick to playing with A to Z

we all have our favorite toys some we choose most are given to us

poets and hackers playjoes and crackers

choosing to play in a divine farmville playing till we slacken

Tips to Play Farmville Really Well

Here are some tips to play Farmville really well-

1) Keep your Farmville friends in a seperate friend list by creating a list at http://www.facebook.com/friends/edit/

This ensures friendship , work and Farmville dont mess around with each other. You also dont need a lot of friends in Farmville (max 40 actives) unlike Mafia Wars

2) Register at http://rewards.zynga.com/ to get free or double rewards by doing the same work. These rewards can be redeemed in-game

3) Set a time as well as money budget. Like $10 per month and 1 hour on weekends with 15 minutes on weekdays with max 3-4 logins. Continue reading “Tips to Play Farmville Really Well”

Facebook Gmail Killer Threatens to commit Hara Kari live on AOL Techcrunch if unsucessful

As per Techcrunch–http://techcrunch.com/2010/11/11/facebook-gmail-titan/

Project Titan — a web-based email client that we hear is unofficially referred to internally as its “Gmail killer”. Now we’ve heard from sources that this is indeed what’s coming on Monday during Facebook’s special event, alongside personal @facebook.com email addresses for users.

Now Techcrunch always tells the Truth and the Gospel as per Mike is always right, especially when he is talking of gates of heaven and Angels.

Again as per the newly rich Mike Arringotn (who qualifies to be an Angel Investor himself except AOL has locked in his err wings)

Our understanding is that this is more than just a UI refresh for Facebook’s existing messaging service with POP access tacked on. Rather, Facebook is building a full-fledged webmail client, and while it may only be in early stages come its launch Monday, there’s a huge amount of potential here.

Facebook has the world’s most popular photos product, the most popular events product, and soon will have a very popular local deals product as well. It can tweak the design of its webmail client to display content from each of these in a seamless fashion (and don’t forget messages from games, or payments via Facebook Credits). And there’s also the social element: Facebook knows who your friends are and how closely you’re connected to them; it can probably do a pretty good job figuring out which personal emails you want to read most and prioritize them accordingly.

Oh, and assuming our sources prove accurate, this explains the timing of the Google/Facebook slap fight over contact information.

In an exclusive chat with Decisionstats, Senior VP Eduard Patel Bumberg said- This is it. I am going to kill Gmail. This movie I just had a small part in the mens room while they had the groupies. If we finally kill Gmail, I hope to get a much bigger part in Social Network 3.

New The new Facebook email gives you lesses spam (primarily) as it leans on its contacts in the Cosa Nostra of Spam- and tell them no spam to .fb books.

Yes Anyone is someone in spam has had a connection in the spam pie in Facebook, like creating duplicate 50 million accounts just before the movie got launched, inflating the number of daily Farmville players, invites, links .

Arringutan even covered some of it in an earlier FB game called scamville.

Saint Mark and Mike would have approved Senior VP Eduard Patel Bumberg decision to either kill Gmail or commit hara kari live on U Stream. It is good for the sequel.

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