Facebook IPO- Do you feel lucky?

2 Jan 2011 dealbook.nytimes.com

Facebook has raised $500 million from Goldman Sachs and a Russian investor in a transaction that values the company at $50 billion

29 Jan 2011 -www.bloomberg.com-$82.9-billion

14 Jun 2011-CNBC———————-$100 billion

27 Jun 2011 -news.cnet.com———-$70 billion

27 Sep 2011-Venturebeat.com——-$82.5 billion

100 billion valuation divided by 1000 million subscribers

=100 $ net present value of ad profit (note if 80 billion valuation with 800 million subscribers it is the same)

=250 $ net present value of ad revenues (assuming 40 % profitability)

=2500 $ net present value of online purchases by Facebook ad clicking customer

(assuming advertisers dedicate 10% of revenue to advertising by Facebook)

and the lucky Russian Investor who invested at 50 billion valuation only to see it double in six months, where else has he inVested

http://nymag.com/daily/intel/2011/01/facebooks_russian_investor_hel.html

Digital Sky Technologies co-founder Yuri Milner, who co-invested in the Goldman-Facebook deal, enviably poised in the middle. DST has been investing early and aggressively in some of the biggest names in the tech bubble boom like Facebook (DST first invested in May 2009), Zynga (the company that makes Farmville and Cityville for Facebook), and Groupon (the dudes that just turned down Google’s $6 billion).

NOTE -Both groupon and Zynga IPO  investors lost money as they are now below IPO price.

http://openchannel.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2011/01/05/5771129-russian-facebook-investors-have-sparked-us-concerns

More on Digital Sky Tech and Yuri Milner and the free internet in Putin’s Russia

Digital Sky got particular attention because of its broad control of the Russian Internet. DNI noted that the company is “a dominant force in the Runet,” owning the most popular Websites in the former Soviet Union, including Russia, Ukraine, Kazakhstan, Georgia, and Armenia as well as others in the Czech Republic and Poland. By some estimates it reported “over 70 percent of all page views in the Russian-language Internet are on its companies’ Websites.”

 

 

From Wall Street Journal-

May 1, 2011

http://www.zdnet.com/blog/facebook/wsj-facebook-growth-exceeds-expectations-100-billion-valuation-justifiable/1306

Last month, a private-market transaction of 100,000 shares of Facebook Class B Common Stock priced at $32.00 apiece gave the website a valuation of $80 billion. Two months ago, Facebook was valued at $65 billion, when investment firm General Atlantic reportedly bought 0.1 percent of Facebook by purchasing roughly 2.5 million Facebook shares from former Facebook employees. Three months ago, Kleiner Perkins Caufield & Byers (KPCB) invested $38 million in Facebook, which was only worth 0.00073 percent of the social network, but still resulted in a valuation of $52 billion.

 

related-

http://techcrunch.com/2011/01/10/facebook-5/

 

Something is gotta give?

Go ahead and  Please. Buy Facebook Stock !

Do you feel lucky?

 

 

 

 

Should you buy Zynga or Wait for the FB IPO

I am going to make a case for whether to buy or not buy  Zynga, and waiting to buy Facebook instead. Of course if Mark Pincus offers you a deep discount, and Mark Zuckenberg totally goes over the top with his P/E multiple, all bets would be re-valuated.

In the interest of your time, and my personal happiness, I am going to use a fairly standard way to measure attractiveness of both these companies- notably the Porter’s Five Forces Model. I will also review the recent experiences of Groupon and LinkedIn valuation to underscore what subtle differences in culture, and reputation of founders can affect the eventual value creation or destruction in an IPO.

(to be continued)

Mafia Wars 2 -The review of the new game on G+

Mafia Wars2 tries to be Steve Jobs working on a PC. It substitutes storyline for fancier graphics, smoother icons and design, and the numeric fun of piling up scores is almost gone. Did you mention social gaming- there are hardly any incentives for “social” part of the game. It looks like a gaudy Vegas twist to a beloved franchise.

Leave sequels to the boys in Hollywood, Pincuss/Zynga- You will need to be much more original to create the next blockbuster. Of course given the size of Zynga’s captive addict-base, the game will be a hit. But it will be a hit more like Transformers 3 , than likes of Blade Hunter or Terminator 2.

May we suggest another NEW game , than rebooting the squeezed lemon juice of a beloved and now departed friend-chise.

ps The song is irritating too. and the skimpy clad players are insulting.

 

Zynga Mafia Wars 2 on Google Plus

The latest game on Google Plus is a clone of one of the most important games in social gaming history- Mafia Wars 2. Early days and a more detailed review to follow- but there has been a design paradigm change in terms of icons, fonts and storyline. Will this capture the gamers attention- time will tell?

Global Warfare on Google Plus

Global Warfare is one of the latest games on Google Plus. There are lots of similarities between this game and Evony at http://evony.com

Global Warfare is made by Kabam https://www.kabam.com/games/global-warfare which is making a total of 3 games for Google Plus (out of 18) and it has Google Ventures as a strategic investor as well (and a member on the board). Google is clearly wanting to bet on online gaming with its earlier strategic investment in Zynga as well. It also acquired http://www.labpixies.com/  (which makes the game Sudoko Puzzles and Flood It but it has more games in reserve as can be seen at https://market.android.com/search?q=labpixies, so clearly G+ is being selective on Games directory at https://plus.google.com/games/directory)

With these gaming companies and others like http://www.digitalchocolate.com/about/ and http://www.rovio.com/index.php?page=company and http://www.popcap.com/ – well they are all there on G+

is gaming the ace in hand in G+ plans for Facebook- time will tell.

Evony of course was a very good game, as it was also very similar (allegedly) to Civilization, and though its advertising campaign of semi clad characters draws flak, it got the worlds attention and recall. While Evony was situated in medieval world,  Global Warfare is a modern warfare equivalent.

Features in Global Warfare-

  • Alliances,
  • multiple player online gaming,
  • social sharing and rewards,
  • in game purchases,
  •  persistent world

Some drawbacks-

  • Slight clutter in gaming space (and lack of nice fonts!)
  • Lack of help forums (or easy availability)
  • Lack of in game search for searching or navigating alliances
Overall- a nice addition to the G+ family of games

 

Games on Google Plus get- Faster, Higher, Stronger

I am spending some time and some money on two games on Google Plus. One is Crime City at https://plus.google.com/games/865772480172 which I talk about in this post

http://www.decisionstats.com/google-plus-games-crime-city-or-fun-with-funzio-on-g/

and Global Warfare  https://plus.google.com/games/216622099218 (which is similar to Evony of the bad ads fame, and I will write on that in another post)

But the total number of games at Google Plus is increasingly and quietly getting better. It seems there is a distinct preference for existing blockbuster games , from both Zynga and non Zynga sources Even though Google is an investor in  Zynga, it clearly wants Google plus to avoid being so dependent on Zynga as Facebook clearly is. Continue reading “Games on Google Plus get- Faster, Higher, Stronger”

Google Plus Games : Crime City or Fun with Funzio on G+

Probably the best designed game on Google Plus right now is Funzio’s Crime City at Google Plus

Funzio which has Zynga alumni http://www.funzio.com/games/ creates a mix of the best games in social game history Farmville and Mafia Wars (with some ideas from the classic Dope Wars) to make https://plus.google.com/u/0/games/865772480172

CRIME CITY

Zynga better hurry up with Farmville on this new G+ platform and the new platform needs to sort some teeny quality issues (which I shall elaborate later)