Tag: Time

Thursday is for fun reading

Thats the world’s most widely read marketing textbook in slideshare format slides. You think you are a marketing guru expert at selling or promoting software- well spend 10 minutes flipping for a fun reading

and a presentation trying to be the worlds best presentation by putting social causes, geeky languages, hot looks in the same slides – Hi It is BO (not Barack Obama)

and if you are like me and suck at presentations , but unlike me would like to get better at presentations

if you are still reading this you probably have too much time on a Friday, so here is one YouTube poetry video I created while in a graphics design course in Vol State- it’s a mashuo of 12 poems, some Prezi, some music by  that big proft making Google machine called You Tub

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Is 21 st century cloud computing same as 1960's time sharing

Diagram showing three main types of cloud comp...
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and yes Prof Goodnight, cloud computing is not time sharing. (Dr J was on a roll there- bashing open source AND cloud computing in the SAME interview at http://www.cbronline.com/news/sas-ceo-says-cep-open-source-and-cloud-bi-have-limited-appeal)

What was time sharing? In the 1960’s when people had longer hair, listened to the Beatles and IBM actually owned ALL computers-

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Time-sharing

or is it?

The Internet has brought the general concept of time-sharing back into popularity. Expensive corporate server farms costing millions can host thousands of customers all sharing the same common resources. As with the early serial terminals, websites operate primarily in bursts of activity followed by periods of idle time. This bursting nature permits the service to be used by many website customers at once, and none of them notice any delays in communications until the servers start to get very busy.

What is 21 st century cloud computing? Well… they are still writing papers to define it BUT http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cloud_computing

Cloud computing is Web-based processing, whereby shared resources, software, and information are provided to computers and other devices (such as smartphones) on demand over the Internet.

 

 

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Open Source's worst enemy is itself not Microsoft/SAS/SAP/Oracle

The decision of quality open source makers to offer their software at bargain basement prices even to enterprise customers who are used to pay prices many times more-pricing is the reason open source software is taking a long time to command respect in enterprise software.

I hate to be the messenger who brings the bad news to my open source brethren-

but their worst nightmare is not the actions of their proprietary competitors like Oracle, SAP, SAS, Microsoft ( they hate each other even more than open source )

nor the collective marketing tactics which are textbook like (but referred as Fear Uncertainty Doubt by those outside that golden quartet)- it is their own communities and their own cheap pricing.

It is community action which prevents them from offering their software by ridiculously low bargain basement prices. James Dixon, head geek and founder at Pentaho has a point when he says traditional metrics like revenue need o be adjusted for this impact in his article at http://jamesdixon.wordpress.com/2010/11/02/comparing-open-source-and-proprietary-software-markets/

But James, why offer software to enterprise customers at one tenth the next competitor- one reason is open source companies more often than not compete more with their free community version software than with big proprietary packages.

Communities including academics are used to free- hey how about paying say 1$ for each download.

There are two million R users- if say even 50 % of them  paid 1 $ as a lifetime license fee- you could sponsor enough new packages than twenty years of Google Summer of Code does right now.

Secondly, this pricing can easily be adjusted by shifting the licensing to say free for businesses less than 2 people (even for the enhanced corporate software version not just the plain vanilla community software thus further increasing the spread of the plain vanilla versions)- for businesses from 10 to 20 people offer a six month trial rather than one month trial.

– but adjust the pricing to much more realistic levels compared to competing software. Make enterprise software pay a real value.

That’s the only way to earn respect. as well as a few dollars more.

As for SAS, it is time it started ridiculing Python now that it has accepted R.

Python is even MORE powerful than R in some use cases for stat computing

Dixon’s Pentaho and the Jaspersoft/ Revolution combo are nice _ I tested both Jasper and Pentaho thanks to these remarks this week 🙂  (see slides at http://www.jaspersoft.com/sites/default/files/downloads/events/Analytics%20-Jaspersoft-SEP2010.pdf or http://www.revolutionanalytics.com/news-events/free-webinars/2010/deploying-r/index.php )

Pentaho and Jasper do give good great graphics in BI (Graphical display in BI is not a SAS forte though probably I dont know how much they cross sell JMP to BI customers- probably too much JMP is another division syndrome there)

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Doing Time Series using a R GUI

The Xerox Star Workstation introduced the firs...
Image via Wikipedia

Until recently I had been thinking that RKWard was the only R GUI supporting Time Series Models-

however Bob Muenchen of http://www.r4stats.com/ was helpful to point out that the Epack Plugin provides time series functionality to R Commander.

Note the GUI helps explore various time series functionality.

Using Bulkfit you can fit various ARMA models to dataset and choose based on minimum AIC

 

> bulkfit(AirPassengers$x)
$res
ar d ma      AIC
[1,]  0 0  0 1790.368
[2,]  0 0  1 1618.863
[3,]  0 0  2 1522.122
[4,]  0 1  0 1413.909
[5,]  0 1  1 1397.258
[6,]  0 1  2 1397.093
[7,]  0 2  0 1450.596
[8,]  0 2  1 1411.368
[9,]  0 2  2 1394.373
[10,]  1 0  0 1428.179
[11,]  1 0  1 1409.748
[12,]  1 0  2 1411.050
[13,]  1 1  0 1401.853
[14,]  1 1  1 1394.683
[15,]  1 1  2 1385.497
[16,]  1 2  0 1447.028
[17,]  1 2  1 1398.929
[18,]  1 2  2 1391.910
[19,]  2 0  0 1413.639
[20,]  2 0  1 1408.249
[21,]  2 0  2 1408.343
[22,]  2 1  0 1396.588
[23,]  2 1  1 1378.338
[24,]  2 1  2 1387.409
[25,]  2 2  0 1440.078
[26,]  2 2  1 1393.882
[27,]  2 2  2 1392.659
$min
ar        d       ma      AIC
2.000    1.000    1.000 1378.338
> ArimaModel.5 <- Arima(AirPassengers$x,order=c(0,1,1),
+ include.mean=1,
+   seasonal=list(order=c(0,1,1),period=12))
> ArimaModel.5
Series: AirPassengers$x
ARIMA(0,1,1)(0,1,1)[12]
Call: Arima(x = AirPassengers$x, order = c(0, 1, 1), seasonal = list(order = c(0,      1, 1), period = 12), include.mean = 1)
Coefficients:
ma1     sma1
-0.3087  -0.1074
s.e.   0.0890   0.0828
sigma^2 estimated as 135.4:  log likelihood = -507.5
AIC = 1021   AICc = 1021.19   BIC = 1029.63
> summary(ArimaModel.5, cor=FALSE)
Series: AirPassengers$x
ARIMA(0,1,1)(0,1,1)[12]
Call: Arima(x = AirPassengers$x, order = c(0, 1, 1), seasonal = list(order = c(0,      1, 1), period = 12), include.mean = 1)
Coefficients:
ma1     sma1
-0.3087  -0.1074
s.e.   0.0890   0.0828
sigma^2 estimated as 135.4:  log likelihood = -507.5
AIC = 1021   AICc = 1021.19   BIC = 1029.63
In-sample error measures:
ME        RMSE         MAE         MPE        MAPE        MASE
0.32355285 11.09952005  8.16242469  0.04409006  2.89713514  0.31563730
Dataset79 <- predar3(ArimaModel.5,fore1=5)

 

And I also found an interesting Ref Sheet for Time Series functions in R-

http://cran.r-project.org/doc/contrib/Ricci-refcard-ts.pdf

and a slightly more exhaustive time series ref card

http://www.statistische-woche-nuernberg-2010.org/lehre/bachelor/datenanalyse/Refcard3.pdf

Also of interest a matter of opinion on issues in Time Series Analysis in R at

http://www.stat.pitt.edu/stoffer/tsa2/Rissues.htm

Of course , if I was the sales manager for SAS ETS I would be worried given the increasing capabilities in Time Series in R. But then again some deficiencies in R GUI for Time Series-

1) Layout is not very elegant

2) Not enough documented help (atleast for the Epack GUI- and no integrated help ACROSS packages-)

3) Graphical capabilties need more help documentation to interpret the output (especially in ACF and PACF plots)

More resources on Time Series using R.

http://people.bath.ac.uk/masgs/time%20series/TimeSeriesR2004.pdf

and http://www.statoek.wiso.uni-goettingen.de/veranstaltungen/zeitreihen/sommer03/ts_r_intro.pdf

and books

http://www.springer.com/economics/econometrics/book/978-0-387-77316-2

http://www.springer.com/statistics/statistical+theory+and+methods/book/978-0-387-75960-9

http://www.springer.com/statistics/statistical+theory+and+methods/book/978-0-387-75958-6

http://www.springer.com/statistics/statistical+theory+and+methods/book/978-0-387-75966-1

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Getting Inside R

Forums and Minerals, the new Internet tools
Image via Wikipedia

I loved the new upgraded design of Inside-R, Revo’s new(?) community.

And promptly shot up a blog application.

What makes Inside- R- slightly better than SDC, Analyticbridge,PlanetR and R _bloggers (with due respects)

  1. Open Id logins (I think thats a new and good step)
  2. Options for automated feed parsing for blogs
  3. More than just a blog aggregator- includes sections on other stuff- thus more like a community than a big feed
  4. Abbreviated feeds- just gives you two-three lines of summary per post  than the whole big schmakaround -thats a time saver for me —(D Smith is the only -lonely blogger atm there)
  5. The more the merrier- One more place to read and write R.


 btw is the name insider (as in guy who knows inside stuff) or Inside- R (as in get inside the R box)- just kidding. With PlyR, ManipulatR, ApplyR and now Inside R- the pun gets MerrieR

If my blog app gets rejected- these views may change ,grr


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Scoring SAS and SPSS Models in the cloud

Outline of a cloud containing text 'The Cloud'
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An announcement from Zementis and Predixion Software– about using cloud computing for scoring models using PMML. Note R has a PMML package as well which is used by Rattle, data mining GUI for exporting models.

Source- http://www.marketwatch.com/story/predixion-software-introduces-new-product-to-run-sas-and-spss-predictive-models-in-the-cloud-2010-10-19?reflink=MW_news_stmp

——————————————————————————————————–

ALISO VIEJO, Calif., Oct 19, 2010 (BUSINESS WIRE) — Predixion Software today introduced Predixion PMML Connexion(TM), an interface that provides Predixion Insight(TM), the company’s low-cost, self-service in the cloud predictive analytics solution, direct and seamless access to SAS, SPSS (IBM) and other predictive models for use by Predixion Insight customers. Predixion PMML Connexion enables companies to leverage their significant investments in legacy predictive analytics solutions at a fraction of the cost of conventional licensing and maintenance fees.

The announcement was made at the Predictive Analytics World conference in Washington, D.C. where Predixion also announced a strategic partnership with Zementis, Inc., a market leader in PMML-based solutions. Zementis is exhibiting in Booth #P2.

The Predictive Model Markup Language (PMML) standard allows for true interoperability, offering a mature standard for moving predictive models seamlessly between platforms. Predixion has fully integrated this PMML functionality into Predixion Insight, meaning Predixion Insight users can now effortlessly import PMML-based predictive models, enabling information workers to score the models in the cloud from anywhere and publish reports using Microsoft Excel(R) and SharePoint(R). In addition, models can also be written back into SAS, SPSS and other platforms for a truly collaborative, interoperable solution.

“Predixion’s investment in this PMML interface makes perfect business sense as the lion’s share of the models in existence today are created by the SAS and SPSS platforms, creating compelling opportunity to leverage existing investments in predictive and statistical models on a low-cost cloud predictive analytics platform that can be fed with enterprise, line of business and cloud-based data,” said Mike Ferguson, CEO of Intelligent Business Strategies, a leading analyst and consulting firm specializing in the areas of business intelligence and enterprise business integration. “In this economy, Predixion’s low-cost, self-service predictive analytics solutions might be welcome relief to IT organizations chartered with quickly adding additional applications while at the same time cutting costs and staffing.”

“We are pleased to be partnering with Zementis, truly a PMML market leader and innovator,” said Predixion CEO Simon Arkell. “To allow any SAS or SPSS customer to immediately score any of their predictive models in the cloud from within Predixion Insight, compare those models to those created by Predixion Insight, and share the results within Excel and Sharepoint is an exciting step forward for the industry. SAS and SPSS customers are fed up with the high prices they must pay for their business users just to access reports generated by highly skilled PhDs who are burdened by performing routine tasks and thus have become a massive bottleneck. That frustration is now a thing of the past because any information worker can now unlock the power of predictive analytics without relying on experts — for a fraction of the cost and from anywhere they can connect to the cloud,” Arkell said.

Dr. Michael Zeller, Zementis CEO, added, “Our mission is to significantly shorten the time-to-market for predictive models in any industry. We are excited to be contributing to Predixion’s self-service, cloud-based predictive analytics solution set.”

About Predixion Software

Predixion Software develops and markets collaborative predictive analytics solutions in the public and private cloud. Predixion enables self-service predictive analytics, allowing customers to use and analyze large amounts of data to make actionable decisions, all within the familiar environment of Excel and PowerPivot. Predixion customers are achieving immediate results across a multitude of industries including: retail, finance, healthcare, marketing, telecommunications and insurance/risk management.

Predixion Software is headquartered in Aliso Viejo, California with development offices in Redmond, Washington. The company has venture capital backing from established investors including DFJ Frontier, Miramar Venture Partners and Palomar Ventures. For more information please contact us at 949-330-6540, or visit us atwww.predixionsoftware.com.

About Zementis

Zementis, Inc. is a leading software company focused on the operational deployment and integration of predictive analytics and data mining solutions. Its ADAPA(R) decision engine successfully bridges the gap between science and engineering. ADAPA(R) was designed from the ground up to benefit from open standards and to significantly shorten the time-to-market for predictive models in any industry. For more information, please visit www.zementis.com.

 

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Using R for Time Series in SAS

 

Time series: random data plus trend, with best...
Image via Wikipedia

 

Here is a great paper on using Time Series in R, and it specifically allows you to use just R output in Base SAS.

SAS Code

/* three methods: */

/* 1. Call R directly – Some errors are not reported to log */

x “’C:\Program Files\R\R-2.12.0\bin\r.exe’–no-save –no-restore <“”&rsourcepath\tsdiag.r””>””&rsourcepath\tsdiag.out”””;

/* include the R log in the SAS log */7data _null_;

infile “&rsourcepath\tsdiag.out”;

file log;

input;

put ’R LOG: ’ _infile_;

run;

/* include the image in the sas output.Specify a file if you are not using autogenerated html output */

ods html;

data _null_;

file print;

put “<IMG SRC=’” “&rsourcepath\plot.png” “’ border=’0’>”;

put “<IMG SRC=’” “&rsourcepath\acf.png” “’ border=’0’>”;

put “<IMG SRC=’” “&rsourcepath\pacf.png” “’ border=’0’>”;

put “<IMG SRC=’” “&rsourcepath\spect.png” “’ border=’0’>”;

put “<IMG SRC=’” “&rsourcepath\fcst.png” “’ border=’0’>”;

run;

ods html close;

The R code to create a time series plot is quite elegant though-


library(tseries)

air <- AirPassengers #Datasetname

ts.plot(air)

acf(air)

pacf(air)

plot(decompose(air))

air.fit <- arima(air,order=c(0,1,1), seasonal=list(order=c(0,1,1), period=12) #The ARIMA Model Based on PACF and ACF Graphs

tsdiag(air.fit)

library(forecast)

air.forecast <- forecast(air.fit)

plot.forecast(air.forecast)

You can download the fascinating paper from the Analytics NCSU Website http://analytics.ncsu.edu/sesug/2008/ST-146.pdf

About the Author-

Sam Croker has a MS in Statistics from the University of South Carolina and has over ten years of experience in analytics.   His research interests are in time series analysis and forecasting with focus on stream-flow analysis.  He is currently using SAS, R and other analytical tools for fraud and abuse detection in Medicare and Medicaid data. He also has experience in analyzing, modeling and forecasting in the finance, marketing, hospitality, retail and pharmaceutical industries.

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