Lovely forecasting blog

Eight different random walks.
Image via Wikipedia

I really loved this simple, smart and yet elegant explanation of forecasting. even a high school quarterback could understand it, and maybe get a internship job building and running and re running code for Mars shot.

Despite my plea that you remain svelte in real life, I implore you to be naïve in business forecasting – and use a naïve forecasting model early and often. A naïve forecasting model is the most important model you will ever use in business forecasting.

and now the killer line

Purists may argue that the only true naïve forecast is the “no-change” forecast, meaning either a random walk (forecast = last known actual) or a seasonal random walk (e.g. forecast = actual from corresponding period last year). These are referred to as NF1 and NF2 in the Makridakis text (where NF = Naïve Forecast). In our 2006 SAS webseries Finding Flaws in Forecasting, an attendee asked “What about using a simple time series forecast with no intervention as the naïve forecast?” Is that allowed?

i did write a blog article on forecasting some time back, but back then I was a little blogger, with the website name being http://iwannacrib.com

great work in helping make forecasting easier to understand for people who have flower shops and dont have a bee, to help them with the forecasts, nor an geeky email list, not 4000$.

make it easier for the little guy to forecast his sales, so he cuts down on his supply chain inventory, lowering his carbon footprint.

Blog.sas.com take a bow, on labour day, helping workers with easy to understand models.

http://blogs.sas.com/forecasting/index.php?/archives/68-Which-Naive-Model-to-Use.html

Is 21 st century cloud computing same as 1960's time sharing

Diagram showing three main types of cloud comp...
Image via Wikipedia

and yes Prof Goodnight, cloud computing is not time sharing. (Dr J was on a roll there- bashing open source AND cloud computing in the SAME interview at http://www.cbronline.com/news/sas-ceo-says-cep-open-source-and-cloud-bi-have-limited-appeal)

What was time sharing? In the 1960’s when people had longer hair, listened to the Beatles and IBM actually owned ALL computers-

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Time-sharing

or is it?

The Internet has brought the general concept of time-sharing back into popularity. Expensive corporate server farms costing millions can host thousands of customers all sharing the same common resources. As with the early serial terminals, websites operate primarily in bursts of activity followed by periods of idle time. This bursting nature permits the service to be used by many website customers at once, and none of them notice any delays in communications until the servers start to get very busy.

What is 21 st century cloud computing? Well… they are still writing papers to define it BUT http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cloud_computing

Cloud computing is Web-based processing, whereby shared resources, software, and information are provided to computers and other devices (such as smartphones) on demand over the Internet.

 

 

Climate Die Oxide ( Updated)


Here is some room for thought in climate control negotiations.

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1) What is the expected date of melting of glaciers in Himalayas thus affecting sacred rivers like Ganges and also causing floods in densely populated Asia. How would nation states with shareable resources like Water react on the disputes, dams , hydro electricity and floods.

2) How would you count per capita CO2 consumption- Assume a Factory in China makes 3 tonnes of C02 every year but exports all its products to USA on Indian Cargo ship. Travel contributes another 1 tonne of C02 including air travel, visits etc.

As of now this will be counted as 3 tonne for China, 1 Tonne for India, X tonne for USA ? What is wrong in these assumptions.

3) Some countries that used to be cold will get warmer- will that lead to extra crops. Which countries will that be.

4) It took a world war to create fission. Will it take another World War on Energy to create fusion. How much energy and resources are needed for creating a dedicated project ManHatten 2 for sharing with the world.

5) Most of the bigger data owned by climate change observations is in the Western Hemisphere under National labs not under UN control OR INSPECTION. How sacrosanct is the data to fudging, or infiltration by intelligence agencies of those countries hoping to influence bargaining chips on the climate change table.

6) Are there last action military ways to change climate during wars- like cause glaciers to melt by thermal bombs, earthquakes by seismic sensitive explosions and how high tech are these solutions and which countries have them.

7) If the planet is running out of Resources- why dont we go to Mars. 🙂

Source

http://manyeyes.alphaworks.ibm.com/manyeyes/files/thumbnails/bb09d328-d863-11de-a602-000255111976.wm.png

Note this is from 2006 Data, so assume 2009 CO2 as more than this.

Data Source-

TN guys at ORNL at http://cdiac.ornl.gov/trends/emis/glo.html

Data Visualization: MANY EYES IBM

http://manyeyes.alphaworks.ibm.com/manyeyes/visualizations/2006-co2-emissions-by-country