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In a world of experts-some questions to ask about China’s foreign policy , trade and military convergence

1) How can an increasingly rich 1.2 billion people accept a restricted internet, one child policies, and severe political restrictions/

2) How long can the Chinese respect for elders and ancestors be translated to a respect for the communist government? How do you measure the level of satisfaction?

3) Can ambitious Chinese Mandarins be motivated by career motives to act tougher than the country’s national interest demands?

4) Rare earth demand and supply curves? Clean energy investments versus climate change commitments graph?

5)Military- Metrics like Chinese Air Force flying hours per pilot, or submarine activity per annum?

As the Chinese supposedly said- May you live in interesting times

Dude, Where’s my Water!

A recent extract from the “independent” Times of India – privately owned and indeed the World’s largest newspaper in English

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/West-uses-glacier-theory-to-flog-India-on-climate-change/articleshow/5482652.cms

NEW DELHI: IPCC’s admission of getting its facts on Himalayan glaciers completely wrong has again brought out concerns about the use of science,

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and pseudo-science, to put pressure on India to take stronger action on climate change or to put greater responsibility for the climate crisis on it.

The ‘2035 demise’ date drawn by IPCC in its fourth assessment report for Himalayan glaciers was used very often to demand that India should take greater action to reduce its emissions in order to protect people from catastrophes like glacial melts and floods. Similarly, a ‘premature’ release of information on the so-called Asian Brown Cloud was used by several western NGOs and governments to pin the blame on the melting of glaciers and other climate change impacts on pollution from burning firewood and cow dung in India.

I had earlier pointed out the same based on my proximity to Oakridge , TN and some data ( see here-

https://decisionstats.wordpress.com/2010/01/05/climate-die-oxide/

on January 5

1) What is the expected date of melting of glaciers in Himalayas thus affecting sacred rivers like Ganges and also causing floods in densely populated Asia. How would nation states with shareable resources like Water react on the disputes, dams , hydro electricity and floods.

2) How would you count per capita CO2 consumption- Assume a Factory in China makes 3 tonnes of C02 every year but exports all its products to USA on Indian Cargo ship. Travel contributes another 1 tonne of C02 including air travel, visits etc.

As of now this will be counted as 3 tonne for China, 1 Tonne for India, X tonne for USA ? What is wrong in these assumptions

Indeed I gave a presentation ro senior Times Group People on using data which is available on my Linkedin profile with the Google Docs presentation at

http://linkedin.com/in/ajayohri

Who is correct? The Indians or the Cowboys see NYT article

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/01/05/science/earth/05satellite.html

The nation’s top scientists and spies are collaborating on an effort to use the federal government’s intelligence assets — including spy satellites and other classified sensors — to assess the hidden complexities of environmental change. They seek insights from natural phenomena like clouds and glaciers, deserts and tropical forests.

Not a coincidence this comes close on the National Security Function in India coming totally revamped

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/Narayanans-exit-gives-full-control-of-internal-security-to-Chidambaram/articleshow/5474408.cms

The exit of M K Narayanan as national security advisor has set the stage for a significant re-ordering of UPA-2’s power structure with

home minister P Chidambaram set to gain fuller control of internal security reducing the role of the next NSA to foreign policy.

Debate and discussion between the freest and largest democracy are welcome steps.

But who is right?

Is climate change negotiations also a proxy for negotiation on terror co operation- as pointed out by me the Sikhs and Indians remain the only forces to be in Kabul (respectively the Sikhs  in recent (late 18th-19th Century) Source- A Brief History of Sikhs and ancient history ( 8 th Century AD) while Churchill’s memoirs in Young Winston talk of the stellar role of the Indian Army in Afghanistan or NWFP. Remember we have been here before- the Bush Administration negotiated and failed to get Indian troops in Iraq in 2004 over lack of monetary negotiations- the Indians turned to be right on true costs!

Are the Chinese or the Americans using India’s insecurities as a proxy?

ps- on Movies Why was Shekhar Kapur’s ( The Oscar nomianted director of Elizabeth ) documentary Paani stopped due to funding issues?

How can ice melting in North Pole lead to lack of water. Do water projections measure that rainwater harvesting has been low in India and ancient Indian religion is okay with Saraswati as one dis appeared river. If the Ganges dries up- the people in India may riot or may just blame it on sin and build smaller rain water dams.

Dude, Where’s my water? When is it gonna go ?

Climate Die Oxide ( Updated)


Here is some room for thought in climate control negotiations.

[tweetmeme=”Decisionstats”]

Decisionstats on Facebook

1) What is the expected date of melting of glaciers in Himalayas thus affecting sacred rivers like Ganges and also causing floods in densely populated Asia. How would nation states with shareable resources like Water react on the disputes, dams , hydro electricity and floods.

2) How would you count per capita CO2 consumption- Assume a Factory in China makes 3 tonnes of C02 every year but exports all its products to USA on Indian Cargo ship. Travel contributes another 1 tonne of C02 including air travel, visits etc.

As of now this will be counted as 3 tonne for China, 1 Tonne for India, X tonne for USA ? What is wrong in these assumptions.

3) Some countries that used to be cold will get warmer- will that lead to extra crops. Which countries will that be.

4) It took a world war to create fission. Will it take another World War on Energy to create fusion. How much energy and resources are needed for creating a dedicated project ManHatten 2 for sharing with the world.

5) Most of the bigger data owned by climate change observations is in the Western Hemisphere under National labs not under UN control OR INSPECTION. How sacrosanct is the data to fudging, or infiltration by intelligence agencies of those countries hoping to influence bargaining chips on the climate change table.

6) Are there last action military ways to change climate during wars- like cause glaciers to melt by thermal bombs, earthquakes by seismic sensitive explosions and how high tech are these solutions and which countries have them.

7) If the planet is running out of Resources- why dont we go to Mars. 🙂

Source

http://manyeyes.alphaworks.ibm.com/manyeyes/files/thumbnails/bb09d328-d863-11de-a602-000255111976.wm.png

Note this is from 2006 Data, so assume 2009 CO2 as more than this.

Data Source-

TN guys at ORNL at http://cdiac.ornl.gov/trends/emis/glo.html

Data Visualization: MANY EYES IBM

http://manyeyes.alphaworks.ibm.com/manyeyes/visualizations/2006-co2-emissions-by-country