Heritage Health Prize- Data Mining Contest for 3mill USD

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If Netflix was about 1 mill USD to better online video choices, here is a chance to earn serious money, write great code, and save lives!

From http://www.heritagehealthprize.com/

Heritage Health Prize
Launching April 4

Laptop

More than 71 Million individuals in the United States are admitted to
hospitals each year, according to the latest survey from the American
Hospital Association. Studies have concluded that in 2006 well over
$30 billion was spent on unnecessary hospital admissions. Each of
these unnecessary admissions took away one hospital bed from someone
else who needed it more.

Prize Goal & Participation

The goal of the prize is to develop a predictive algorithm that can identify patients who will be admitted to the hospital within the next year, using historical claims data.

Official registration will open in 2011, after the launch of the prize. At that time, pre-registered teams will be notified to officially register for the competition. Teams must consent to be bound by final competition rules.

Registered teams will develop and test their algorithms. The winning algorithm will be able to predict patients at risk for an unplanned hospital admission with a high rate of accuracy. The first team to reach the accuracy threshold will have their algorithms confirmed by a judging panel. If confirmed, a winner will be declared.

The competition is expected to run for approximately two years. Registration will be open throughout the competition.

Data Sets

Registered teams will be granted access to two separate datasets of de-identified patient claims data for developing and testing algorithms: a training dataset and a quiz/test dataset. The datasets will be comprised of de-identified patient data. The datasets will include:

  • Outpatient encounter data
  • Hospitalization encounter data
  • Medication dispensing claims data, including medications
  • Outpatient laboratory data, including test outcome values

The data for each de-identified patient will be organized into two sections: “Historical Data” and “Admission Data.” Historical Data will represent three years of past claims data. This section of the dataset will be used to predict if that patient is going to be admitted during the Admission Data period. Admission Data represents previous claims data and will contain whether or not a hospital admission occurred for that patient; it will be a binary flag.

DataThe training dataset includes several thousand anonymized patients and will be made available, securely and in full, to any registered team for the purpose of developing effective screening algorithms.

The quiz/test dataset is a smaller set of anonymized patients. Teams will only receive the Historical Data section of these datasets and the two datasets will be mixed together so that teams will not be aware of which de-identified patients are in which set. Teams will make predictions based on these data sets and submit their predictions to HPN through the official Heritage Health Prize web site. HPN will use the Quiz Dataset for the initial assessment of the Team’s algorithms. HPN will evaluate and report back scores to the teams through the prize website’s leader board.

Scores from the final Test Dataset will not be made available to teams until the accuracy thresholds are passed. The test dataset will be used in the final judging and results will be kept hidden. These scores are used to preserve the integrity of scoring and to help validate the predictive algorithms.

Teams can begin developing and testing their algorithms as soon as they are registered and ready. Teams will log onto the official Heritage Health Prize website and submit their predictions online. Comparisons will be run automatically and team accuracy scores will be posted on the leader board. This score will be only on a portion of the predictions submitted (the Quiz Dataset), the additional results will be kept back (the Test Dataset).

Form

Once a team successfully scores above the accuracy thresholds on the online testing (quiz dataset), final judging will occur. There will be three parts to this judging. First, the judges will confirm that the potential winning team’s algorithm accurately predicts patient admissions in the Test Dataset (again, above the thresholds for accuracy).

Next, the judging panel will confirm that the algorithm does not identify patients and use external data sources to derive its predictions. Lastly, the panel will confirm that the team’s algorithm is authentic and derives its predictive power from the datasets, not from hand-coding results to improve scores. If the algorithm meets these three criteria, it will be declared the winner.

Failure to meet any one of these three parts will disqualify the team and the contest will continue. The judges reserve the right to award second and third place prizes if deemed applicable.

 

HIGHLIGHTS from REXER Survey :R gives best satisfaction

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A Summary report from Rexer Analytics Annual Survey

 

HIGHLIGHTS from the 4th Annual Data Miner Survey (2010):

 

•   FIELDS & GOALS: Data miners work in a diverse set of fields.  CRM / Marketing has been the #1 field in each of the past four years.  Fittingly, “improving the understanding of customers”, “retaining customers” and other CRM goals are also the goals identified by the most data miners surveyed.

 

•   ALGORITHMS: Decision trees, regression, and cluster analysis continue to form a triad of core algorithms for most data miners.  However, a wide variety of algorithms are being used.  This year, for the first time, the survey asked about Ensemble Models, and 22% of data miners report using them.
A third of data miners currently use text mining and another third plan to in the future.

 

•   MODELS: About one-third of data miners typically build final models with 10 or fewer variables, while about 28% generally construct models with more than 45 variables.

 

•   TOOLS: After a steady rise across the past few years, the open source data mining software R overtook other tools to become the tool used by more data miners (43%) than any other.  STATISTICA, which has also been climbing in the rankings, is selected as the primary data mining tool by the most data miners (18%).  Data miners report using an average of 4.6 software tools overall.  STATISTICA, IBM SPSS Modeler, and R received the strongest satisfaction ratings in both 2010 and 2009.

 

•   TECHNOLOGY: Data Mining most often occurs on a desktop or laptop computer, and frequently the data is stored locally.  Model scoring typically happens using the same software used to develop models.  STATISTICA users are more likely than other tool users to deploy models using PMML.

 

•   CHALLENGES: As in previous years, dirty data, explaining data mining to others, and difficult access to data are the top challenges data miners face.  This year data miners also shared best practices for overcoming these challenges.  The best practices are available online.

 

•   FUTURE: Data miners are optimistic about continued growth in the number of projects they will be conducting, and growth in data mining adoption is the number one “future trend” identified.  There is room to improve:  only 13% of data miners rate their company’s analytic capabilities as “excellent” and only 8% rate their data quality as “very strong”.

 

Please contact us if you have any questions about the attached report or this annual research program.  The 5th Annual Data Miner Survey will be launching next month.  We will email you an invitation to participate.

 

Information about Rexer Analytics is available at www.RexerAnalytics.com. Rexer Analytics continues their impressive journey see http://www.rexeranalytics.com/Clients.html

|My only thought- since most data miners are using multiple tools including free tools as well as paid software, Perhaps a pie chart of market share by revenue and volume would be handy.

Also some ideas on comparing diverse data mining projects by data size, or complexity.

 

Zementis partners with R Analytics Vendor- Revo

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Just got a  PR email from Michael Zeller,CEO , Zementis annoucing Zementis (ADAPA) and Revolution  Analytics just partnered up.

Is this something substantial or just time-sharing http://bi.cbronline.com/news/sas-ceo-says-cep-open-source-and-cloud-bi-have-limited-appeal or a Barney Partnership (http://www.dbms2.com/2008/05/08/database-blades-are-not-what-they-used-to-be/)

Summary- Thats cloud computing scoring of models on EC2 (Zementis) partnering with the actual modeling software in R (Revolution Analytics RevoDeployR)

See previous interviews with both Dr Zeller at https://decisionstats.com/2009/02/03/interview-michael-zeller-ceozementis/ ,https://decisionstats.com/2009/05/07/interview-ron-ramos-zementis/ and https://decisionstats.com/2009/10/05/interview-michael-zellerceo-zementis-on-pmml/)

and Revolution guys at https://decisionstats.com/2010/08/03/q-a-with-david-smith-revolution-analytics/

and https://decisionstats.com/2009/05/29/interview-david-smith-revolution-computing/

strategic partnership with Revolution Analytics, the leading commercial provider of software and support for the popular open source R statistics language. With this partnership, predictive models developed on Revolution R Enterprise are now accessible for real-time scoring through the ADAPA Decisioning Engine by Zementis. 

ADAPA is an extremely fast and scalable predictive platform. Models deployed in ADAPA are automatically available for execution in real-time and batch-mode as Web Services. ADAPA allows Revolution R Enterprise to leverage the Predictive Model Markup Language (PMML) for better decision management. With PMML, models built in R can be used in a wide variety of real-world scenarios without requiring laborious or expensive proprietary processes to convert them into applications capable of running on an execution system.

partnership

“By partnering with Zementis, Revolution Analytics is building an end-to-end solution for moving enterprise-level predictive R models into the execution environment,” said Jeff Erhardt, Revolution Analytics Chief Operation Officer. “With Zementis, we are eliminating the need to take R applications apart and recode, retest and redeploy them in order to obtain desirable results.”

 

Got demo? 

Yes, we do! Revolution Analytics and Zementis have put together a demo which combines the building of models in R with automatic deployment and execution in ADAPA. It uses Revolution Analytics’ RevoDeployR, a new Web Services framework that allows for data analysts working in R to publish R scripts to a server-based installation of Revolution R Enterprise.

Action Items:

  1. Try our INTERACTIVE DEMO
  2. DOWNLOAD the white paper
  3. Try the ADAPA FREE TRIAL

RevoDeployR & ADAPA allow for real-time analysis and predictions from R to be effectively used by existing Excel spreadsheets, BI dashboards and Web-based applications, all in real-time.

RevoADAPAPredictive analytics with RevoDeployR from Revolution Analytics and ADAPA from Zementis put model building and real-time scoring into a league of their own. Seriously!

Common Analytical Tasks

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Some common analytical tasks from the diary of the glamorous life of a business analyst-

1) removing duplicates from a dataset based on certain key values/variables
2) merging two datasets based on a common key/variable/s
3) creating a subset based on a conditional value of a variable
4) creating a subset based on a conditional value of a time-date variable
5) changing format from one date time variable to another
6) doing a means grouped or classified at a level of aggregation
7) creating a new variable based on if then condition
8) creating a macro to run same program with different parameters
9) creating a logistic regression model, scoring dataset,
10) transforming variables
11) checking roc curves of model
12) splitting a dataset for a random sample (repeatable with random seed)
13) creating a cross tab of all variables in a dataset with one response variable
14) creating bins or ranks from a certain variable value
15) graphically examine cross tabs
16) histograms
17) plot(density())
18)creating a pie chart
19) creating a line graph, creating a bar graph
20) creating a bubbles chart
21) running a goal seek kind of simulation/optimization
22) creating a tabular report for multiple metrics grouped for one time/variable
23) creating a basic time series forecast

and some case studies I could think of-

 

As the Director, Analytics you have to examine current marketing efficiency as well as help optimize sales force efficiency across various channels. In addition you have to examine multiple sales channels including inbound telephone, outgoing direct mail, internet email campaigns. The datawarehouse is an RDBMS but it has multiple data quality issues to be checked for. In addition you need to submit your budget estimates for next year’s annual marketing budget to maximize sales return on investment.

As the Director, Risk you have to examine the overdue mortgages book that your predecessor left you. You need to optimize collections and minimize fraud and write-offs, and your efforts would be measured in maximizing profits from your department.

As a social media consultant you have been asked to maximize social media analytics and social media exposure to your client. You need to create a mechanism to report particular brand keywords, as well as automated triggers between unusual web activity, and statistical analysis of the website analytics metrics. Above all it needs to be set up in an automated reporting dashboard .

As a consultant to a telecommunication company you are asked to monitor churn and review the existing churn models. Also you need to maximize advertising spend on various channels. The problem is there are a large number of promotions always going on, some of the data is either incorrectly coded or there are interaction effects between the various promotions.

As a modeller you need to do the following-
1) Check ROC and H-L curves for existing model
2) Divide dataset in random splits of 40:60
3) Create multiple aggregated variables from the basic variables

4) run regression again and again
5) evaluate statistical robustness and fit of model
6) display results graphically
All these steps can be broken down in little little pieces of code- something which i am putting down a list of.
Are there any common data analysis tasks that you think I am missing out- any common case studies ? let me know.

 

 

 

PAW Videos

A message from Predictive Analytics World on  newly available videos. It has many free videos as well so you can check them out.

Predictive Analytics World March 2011 in San Francisco

Access PAW DC Session Videos Now

Predictive Analytics World is pleased to announce on-demand access to the videos of PAW Washington DC, October 2010, including over 30 sessions and keynotes that you may view at your convenience. Access this leading predictive analytics content online now:

View the PAW DC session videos online

Register by January 18th and receive $150 off the full 2-day conference program videos (enter code PAW150 at checkout)

Trial videos – view the following for no charge:

Select individual conference sessions, or recognize savings by registering for access to one or two full days of sessions. These on-demand videos deliver PAW DC right to your desk, covering hot topics and advanced methods such as:

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Consumer privacy

Sales force optimization

Response & cross-sell

Recommender systems

Featuring experts such as:
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CEO, Open Insights Former Chief Data Officer, Yahoo!

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Sr Mgr, Media/DB Mktng
Target
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John F. Elder, Ph.D.
CEO and Founder
Elder Research

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Microsoft

Eric Siegel, Ph.D.
Conference Chair
Predictive Analytics World

PAW DC videos feature over 25 speakers with case studies from leading enterprises such as: CIBC, CEB, Forrester, Macy’s, MetLife, Microsoft, Miles Kimball, Monster.com, Oracle, Paychex, SunTrust, Target, UPMC, Xerox, Yahoo!, YMCA, and more.

How video access works:

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Sign up by January 18 for immediate video access and $150 discount


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Session Gallery: Day 1 of 2

Viewing (17) Sessions of (31)

 

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Keynote: Five Ways Predictive Analytics Cuts Enterprise Risk  

Eric Siegel, Ph.D., Program Chair, Predictive Analytics World

All business is an exercise in risk management. All organizations would benefit from measuring, tracking and computing risk as a core process, much like insurance companies do.

Predictive analytics does the trick, one customer at a time. This technology is a data-driven means to compute the risk each customer will defect, not respond to an expensive mailer, consume a retention discount even if she were not going to leave in the first place, not be targeted for a telephone solicitation that would have landed a sale, commit fraud, or become a “loss customer” such as a bad debtor or an insurance policy-holder with high claims.

In this keynote session, Dr. Eric Siegel reveals:

– Five ways predictive analytics evolves your enterprise to reduce risk

– Hidden sources of risk across operational functions

– What every business should learn from insurance companies

– How advancements have reversed the very meaning of fraud

– Why “man + machine” teams are greater than the sum of their parts for enterprise decision support

Length – 00:45:57 | Email to a Colleague

Price: $195

 

 

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Play video of session: Platinum Sponsor Presentation, Analytics: The Beauty of Diversity
Platinum Sponsor Presentation: Analytics – The Beauty of Diversity 

Anne H. Milley, Senior Director of Analytic Strategy, Worldwide Product Marketing, SAS

Analytics contributes to, and draws from, multiple disciplines. The unifying theme of “making the world a better place” is bred from diversity. For instance, the same methods used in econometrics might be used in market research, psychometrics and other disciplines. In a similar way, diverse paradigms are needed to best solve problems, reveal opportunities and make better decisions. This is why we evolve capabilities to formulate and solve a wide range of problems through multiple integrated languages and interfaces. Extending that, we have provided integration with other languages so that users can draw on the disciplines and paradigms needed to best practice their craft.

Length – 20:11 | Email to a Colleague

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Play video of session: Gold Sponsor Presentation Predictive Analytics Accelerate Insight for Financial Services
Gold Sponsor Presentation: Predictive Analytics Accelerate Insight for Financial Services 

Finbarr Deely, Director of Business Development,ParAccel

Financial services organizations face immense hurdles in maintaining profitability and building competitive advantage. Financial services organizations must perform “what-if” scenario analysis, identify risks, and detect fraud patterns. The advanced analytic complexity required often makes such analysis slow and painful, if not impossible. This presentation outlines the analytic challenges facing these organizations and provides a clear path to providing the accelerated insight needed to perform in today’s complex business environment to reduce risk, stop fraud and increase profits. * The value of predictive analytics in Accelerating Insight * Financial Services Analytic Case Studies * Brief Overview of ParAccel Analytic Database

Length – 09:06 | Email to a Colleague

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TOPIC: BUSINESS VALUE
Case Study: Monster.com
Creating Global Competitive Power with Predictive Analytics 

Jean Paul Isson, Vice President, Globab BI & Predictive Analytics, Monster Worldwide

Using Predictive analytics to gain a deeper understanding of customer behaviours, increase marketing ROI and drive growth

– Creating global competitive power with business intelligence: Making the right decisions – at the right time

– Avoiding common change management challenges in sales, marketing, customer service, and products

– Developing a BI vision – and implementing it: successful business intelligence implementation models

– Using predictive analytics as a business driver to stay on top of the competition

– Following the Monster Worldwide global BI evolution: How Monster used BI to go from good to great

Length – 51:17 | Email to a Colleague

Price: $195

 

 

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TOPIC: SURVEY ANALYSIS
Case Study: YMCA
Turning Member Satisfaction Surveys into an Actionable Narrative 

Dean Abbott, President, Abbott Analytics

Employees are a key constituency at the Y and previous analysis has shown that their attitudes have a direct bearing on Member Satisfaction. This session will describe a successful approach for the analysis of YMCA employee surveys. Decision trees are built and examined in depth to identify key questions in describing key employee satisfaction metrics, including several interesting groupings of employee attitudes. Our approach will be contrasted with other factor analysis and regression-based approaches to survey analysis that we used initially. The predictive models described are currently in use and resulted in both greater understanding of employee attitudes, and a revised “short-form” survey with fewer key questions identified by the decision trees as the most important predictors.

Length – 50:19 | Email to a Colleague

Price: $195

 

 

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TOPIC: INDUSTRY TRENDS
2010 Data Minter Survey Results: Highlights
 

Karl Rexer, Ph.D., Rexer Analytics

Do you want to know the views, actions, and opinions of the data mining community? Each year, Rexer Analytics conducts a global survey of data miners to find out. This year at PAW we unveil the results of our 4th Annual Data Miner Survey. This session will present the research highlights, such as:

– Analytic goals & key challenges

– Impact of the economy

– Regional differences

– Text mining trends

Length – 15:20 | Email to a Colleague

Price: $195

 

 

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Multiple Case Studies: U.S. DoD, U.S. DHS, SSA
Text Mining: Lessons Learned 

John F. Elder, Chief Scientist, Elder Research, Inc.

Text Mining is the “Wild West” of data mining and predictive analytics – the potential for gain is huge, the capability claims are often tall tales, and the “land rush” for leadership is very much a race.

In solving unstructured (text) analysis challenges, we found that principles from inductive modeling – learning relationships from labeled cases – has great power to enhance text mining. Dr. Elder highlights key technical breakthroughs discovered while working on projects for leading government agencies, including: Text Mining is the “Wild West” of data mining and predictive analytics – the potential for gain is huge, the capability claims are often tall tales, and the “land rush” for leadership is very much a race.

– Prioritizing searches for the Dept. of Homeland Security

– Quick decisions for Social Security Admin. disability

– Document discovery for the Dept. of Defense

– Disease discovery for the Dept. of Homeland Security

– Risk profiling for the Dept. of Defense

Length – 48:58 | Email to a Colleague

Price: $195

 

 

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Play video of session: Keynote: How Target Gets the Most out of Its Guest Data to Improve Marketing ROI
Keynote: How Target Gets the Most out of Its Guest Data to Improve Marketing ROI 

Andrew Pole, Senior Manager, Media and Database Marketing, Target

In this session, you’ll learn how Target leverages its own internal guest data to optimize its direct marketing – with the ultimate goal of enhancing our guests’ shopping experience and driving in-store and online performance. You will hear about what guest data is available at Target, how and where we collect it, and how it is used to improve the performance and relevance of direct marketing vehicles. Furthermore, we will discuss Target’s development and usage of guest segmentation, response modeling, and optimization as means to suppress poor performers from mailings, determine relevant product categories and services for online targeted content, and optimally assign receipt marketing offers to our guests when offer quantities are limited.

Length – 47:49 | Email to a Colleague

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Play video of session: Platinum Sponsor Presentation: Driving Analytics Into Decision Making
Platinum Sponsor Presentation: Driving Analytics Into Decision Making  

Jason Verlen, Director, SPSS Product Strategy & Management, IBM Software Group

Organizations looking to dramatically improve their business outcomes are turning to decision management, a convergence of technology and business processes that is used to streamline and predict the outcome of daily decision-making. IBM SPSS Decision Management technology provides the critical link between analytical insight and recommended actions. In this session you’ll learn how Decision Management software integrates analytics with business rules and business applications for front-line systems such as call center applications, insurance claim processing, and websites. See how you can improve every customer interaction, minimize operational risk, reduce fraud and optimize results.

Length – 17:29 | Email to a Colleague

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TOPIC: DATA INFRASTRUCTURE AND INTEGRATION
Case Study: Macy’s
The world is not flat (even though modeling software has to think it is) 

Paul Coleman, Director of Marketing Statistics, Macy’s Inc.

Software for statistical modeling generally use flat files, where each record represents a unique case with all its variables. In contrast most large databases are relational, where data are distributed among various normalized tables for efficient storage. Variable creation and model scoring engines are necessary to bridge data mining and storage needs. Development datasets taken from a sampled history require snapshot management. Scoring datasets are taken from the present timeframe and the entire available universe. Organizations, with significant data, must decide when to store or calculate necessary data and understand the consequences for their modeling program.

Length – 34:54 | Email to a Colleague

Price: $195

 

 

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TOPIC: CUSTOMER VALUE
Case Study: SunTrust
When One Model Will Not Solve the Problem – Using Multiple Models to Create One Solution 

Dudley Gwaltney, Group Vice President, Analytical Modeling, SunTrust Bank

In 2007, SunTrust Bank developed a series of models to identify clients likely to have large changes in deposit balances. The models include three basic binary and two linear regression models.

Based on the models, 15% of SunTrust clients were targeted as those most likely to have large balance changes. These clients accounted for 65% of the absolute balance change and 60% of the large balance change clients. The targeted clients are grouped into a portfolio and assigned to individual SunTrust Retail Branch. Since 2008, the portfolio generated a 2.6% increase in balances over control.

Using the SunTrust example, this presentation will focus on:

– Identifying situations requiring multiple models

– Determining what types of models are needed

– Combining the individual component models into one output

Length – 48:22 | Email to a Colleague

Price: $195

 

 

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TOPIC: RESPONSE & CROSS-SELL
Case Study: Paychex
Staying One Step Ahead of the Competition – Development of a Predictive 401(k) Marketing and Sales Campaign 

Jason Fox, Information Systems and Portfolio Manager,Paychex

In-depth case study of Paychex, Inc. utilizing predictive modeling to turn the tides on competitive pressures within their own client base. Paychex, a leading provider of payroll and human resource solutions, will guide you through the development of a Predictive 401(k) Marketing and Sales model. Through the use of sophisticated data mining techniques and regression analysis the model derives the probability a client will add retirement services products with Paychex or with a competitor. Session will include roadblocks that could have ended development and ROI analysis. Speaker: Frank Fiorille, Director of Enterprise Risk Management, Paychex Speaker: Jason Fox, Risk Management Analyst, Paychex

Length – 26:29 | Email to a Colleague

Price: $195

 

 

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TOPIC: SEGMENTATION
Practitioner: Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce
Segmentation Do’s and Don’ts 

Daymond Ling, Senior Director, Modelling & Analytics,Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce

The concept of Segmentation is well accepted in business and has withstood the test of time. Even with the advent of new artificial intelligence and machine learning methods, this old war horse still has its place and is alive and well. Like all analytical methods, when used correctly it can lead to enhanced market positioning and competitive advantage, while improper application can have severe negative consequences.

This session will explore what are the elements of success, and what are the worse practices that lead to failure. The relationship between segmentation and predictive modeling will also be discussed to clarify when it is appropriate to use one versus the other, and how to use them together synergistically.

Length – 45:57 | Email to a Colleague

Price: $195

 

 

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TOPIC: SOCIAL DATA
Thought Leadership
Social Network Analysis: Killer Application for Cloud Analytics
 

James Kobielus, Senior Analyst, Forrester Research

Social networks such as Twitter and Facebook are a potential goldmine of insights on what is truly going through customers´minds. Every company wants to know whether, how, how often, and by whom they´re being mentioned across the billowing new cloud of social media. Just as important, every company wants to influence those discussions in their favor, target new business, and harvest maximum revenue potential. In this session, Forrester analyst James Kobielus identifies fruitful applications of social network analysis in customer service, sales, marketing, and brand management. He presents a roadmap for enterprises to leverage their inline analytics initiatives and leverage high-performance data warehousing (DW) clouds and appliances in order to analyze shifting patterns of customer sentiment, influence, and propensity. Leveraging Forrester’s ongoing research in advanced analytics and customer relationship management, Kobielus will discuss industry trends, commercial modeling tools, and emerging best practices in social network analysis, which represents a game-changing new discipline in predictive analytics.

Length – 48:16 | Email to a Colleague

Price: $195

 

 

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TOPIC: HEALTHCARE – INTERNATIONAL TARGETING
Case Study: Life Line Screening
Taking CRM Global Through Predictive Analytics 

Ozgur Dogan,
VP, Quantitative Solutions Group, Merkle Inc

Trish Mathe,
Director of Database Marketing, Life Line Screening

While Life Line is successfully executing a US CRM roadmap, they are also beginning this same evolution abroad. They are beginning in the UK where Merkle procured data and built a response model that is pulling responses over 30% higher than competitors. This presentation will give an overview of the US CRM roadmap, and then focus on the beginning of their strategy abroad, focusing on the data procurement they could not get anywhere else but through Merkle and the successful modeling and analytics for the UK. Speaker: Ozgur Dogan, VP, Quantitative Solutions Group, Merkle Inc Speaker: Trish Mathe, Director of Database Marketing, Life Line Screening

Length – 40:12 | Email to a Colleague

Price: $195

 

 

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TOPIC: SURVEY ANALYSIS
Case Study: Forrester
Making Survey Insights Addressable and Scalable – The Case Study of Forrester’s Technographics Benchmark Survey 

Nethra Sambamoorthi, Team Leader, Consumer Dynamics & Analytics, Global Consulting, Acxiom Corporation

Marketers use surveys to create enterprise wide applicable strategic insights to: (1) develop segmentation schemes, (2) summarize consumer behaviors and attitudes for the whole US population, and (3) use multiple surveys to draw unified views about their target audience. However, these insights are not directly addressable and scalable to the whole consumer universe which is very important when applying the power of survey intelligence to the one to one consumer marketing problems marketers routinely face. Acxiom partnered with Forrester Research, creating addressable and scalable applications of Forrester’s Technographics Survey and applied it successfully to a number of industries and applications.

Length – 39:23 | Email to a Colleague

Price: $195

 

 

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TOPIC: HEALTHCARE
Case Study: UPMC Health Plan
A Predictive Model for Hospital Readmissions 

Scott Zasadil, Senior Scientist, UPMC Health Plan

Hospital readmissions are a significant component of our nation’s healthcare costs. Predicting who is likely to be readmitted is a challenging problem. Using a set of 123,951 hospital discharges spanning nearly three years, we developed a model that predicts an individual’s 30-day readmission should they incur a hospital admission. The model uses an ensemble of boosted decision trees and prior medical claims and captures 64% of all 30-day readmits with a true positive rate of over 27%. Moreover, many of the ‘false’ positives are simply delayed true positives. 53% of the predicted 30-day readmissions are readmitted within 180 days.

Length – 54:18 | Email to a Colleague

Price: $195

PAWCON -This week in London

Watch out for the twitter hash news on PAWCON and the exciting agenda lined up. If your in the City- you may want to just drop in

http://www.predictiveanalyticsworld.com/london/2010/agenda.php#day1-7

Disclaimer- PAWCON has been a blog partner with Decisionstats (since the first PAWCON ). It is vendor neutral and features open source as well proprietary software, as well case studies from academia and Industry for a balanced view.

 

Little birdie told me some exciting product enhancements may be in the works including a not yet announced R plugin 😉 and the latest SAS product using embedded analytics and Dr Elder’s full day data mining workshop.

Citation-

http://www.predictiveanalyticsworld.com/london/2010/agenda.php#day1-7

Monday November 15, 2010
All conference sessions take place in Edward 5-7

8:00am-9:00am

Registration, Coffee and Danish
Room: Albert Suites


9:00am-9:50am

Keynote
Five Ways Predictive Analytics Cuts Enterprise Risk

All business is an exercise in risk management. All organizations would benefit from measuring, tracking and computing risk as a core process, much like insurance companies do.

Predictive analytics does the trick, one customer at a time. This technology is a data-driven means to compute the risk each customer will defect, not respond to an expensive mailer, consume a retention discount even if she were not going to leave in the first place, not be targeted for a telephone solicitation that would have landed a sale, commit fraud, or become a “loss customer” such as a bad debtor or an insurance policy-holder with high claims.

In this keynote session, Dr. Eric Siegel will reveal:

  • Five ways predictive analytics evolves your enterprise to reduce risk
  • Hidden sources of risk across operational functions
  • What every business should learn from insurance companies
  • How advancements have reversed the very meaning of fraud
  • Why “man + machine” teams are greater than the sum of their parts for
  • enterprise decision support

 

Speaker: Eric Siegel, Ph.D., Program Chair, Predictive Analytics World

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IBM9:50am-10:10am

Platinum Sponsor Presentation
The Analytical Revolution

The algorithms at the heart of predictive analytics have been around for years – in some cases for decades. But now, as we see predictive analytics move to the mainstream and become a competitive necessity for organisations in all industries, the most crucial challenges are to ensure that results can be delivered to where they can make a direct impact on outcomes and business performance, and that the application of analytics can be scaled to the most demanding enterprise requirements.

This session will look at the obstacles to successfully applying analysis at the enterprise level, and how today’s approaches and technologies can enable the true “industrialisation” of predictive analytics.

Speaker: Colin Shearer, WW Industry Solutions Leader, IBM UK Ltd

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Deloitte10:10am-10:20am

Gold Sponsor Presentation
How Predictive Analytics is Driving Business Value

Organisations are increasingly relying on analytics to make key business decisions. Today, technology advances and the increasing need to realise competitive advantage in the market place are driving predictive analytics from the domain of marketers and tactical one-off exercises to the point where analytics are being embedded within core business processes.

During this session, Richard will share some of the focus areas where Deloitte is driving business transformation through predictive analytics, including Workforce, Brand Equity and Reputational Risk, Customer Insight and Network Analytics.

Speaker: Richard Fayers, Senior Manager, Deloitte Analytical Insight

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10:20am-10:45am

Break / Exhibits
Room: Albert Suites


10:45am-11:35am
Healthcare
Case Study: Life Line Screening
Taking CRM Global Through Predictive Analytics

While Life Line is successfully executing a US CRM roadmap, they are also beginning this same evolution abroad. They are beginning in the UK where Merkle procured data and built a response model that is pulling responses over 30% higher than competitors. This presentation will give an overview of the US CRM roadmap, and then focus on the beginning of their strategy abroad, focusing on the data procurement they could not get anywhere else but through Merkle and the successful modeling and analytics for the UK.

Speaker: Ozgur Dogan, VP, Quantitative Solutions Group, Merkle Inc.

Speaker: Trish Mathe, Life Line Screening

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11:35am-12:25pm
Open Source Analytics; Healthcare
Case Study: A large health care organization
The Rise of Open Source Analytics: Lowering Costs While Improving Patient Care

Rapidminer and R were the number 1 and 2 in this years annual KDNuggets data mining tool usage poll, followed by Knime on place 4 and Weka on place 6. So what’s going on here? Are these open source tools really that good or is their popularity strongly correlated with lower acquisition costs alone? This session answers these questions based on a real world case for a large health care organization and explains the risks & benefits of using open source technology. The final part of the session explains how these tools stack up against their traditional, proprietary counterparts.

Speaker: Jos van Dongen, Associate & Principal, DeltIQ Group

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12:25pm-1:25pm

Lunch / Exhibits
Room: Albert Suites


1:25pm-2:15pm
Keynote
Thought Leader:
Case Study: Yahoo! and other large on-line e-businesses
Search Marketing and Predictive Analytics: SEM, SEO and On-line Marketing Case Studies

Search Engine Marketing is a $15B industry in the U.S. growing to double that number over the next 3 years. Worldwide the SEM market was over $50B in 2010. Not only is this a fast growing area of marketing, but it is one that has significant implications for brand and direct marketing and is undergoing rapid change with emerging channels such as mobile and social. What is unique about this area of marketing is a singularly heavy dependence on analytics:

 

  • Large numbers of variables and options
  • Real-time auctions/bids and a need to adjust strategies in real-time
  • Difficult optimization problems on allocating spend across a huge number of keywords
  • Fast-changing competitive terrain and heavy competition on the obvious channels
  • Complicated interactions between various channels and a large choice of search keyword expansion possibilities
  • Profitability and ROI analysis that are complex and often challenging

 

The size of the industry, its growing importance in marketing, its upcoming role in Mobile Advertising, and its uniquely heavy reliance on analytics makes it particularly interesting as an area for predictive analytics applications. In this session, not only will hear about some of the latest strategies and techniques to optimize search, you will hear case studies that illustrate the important role of analytics from industry practitioners.

Speaker: Usama Fayyad, , Ph.D., CEO, Open Insights

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SAS2:15pm-2:35pm

Platinum Sponsor Presentation
Creating a Model Factory Using in-Database Analytics

With the ever-increasing number of analytical models required to make fact-based decisions, as well as increasing audit compliance regulations, it is more important than ever that these models can be created, monitored, retuned and deployed as quickly and automatically as possible. This paper, using a case study from a major financial organisation, will show how organisations can build a model factory efficiently using the latest SAS technology that utilizes the power of in-database processing.

Speaker: John Spooner, Analytics Specialist, SAS (UK)

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2:35pm-2:45pm

Session Break
Room: Albert Suites


2:45pm-3:35pm

Retail
Case Study: SABMiller
Predictive Analytics & Global Marketing Strategy

Over the last few years SABMiller plc, the second largest brewing company in the world operating in 70 countries, has been systematically segmenting its markets in different countries globally in order optimize their portfolio strategy & align it to their long term country specific growth strategy. This presentation talks about the overall methodology followed and the challenges that had to be overcome both from a technical as well as from a change management stand point in order to successfully implement a standard analytics approach to diverse markets and diverse business positions in a highly global setting.

The session explains how country specific growth strategies were converted to objective variables and consumption occasion segments were created that differentiated the market effectively by their growth potential. In addition to this the presentation will also provide a discussion on issues like:

  • The dilemmas of static vs. dynamic solutions and standardization vs. adaptable solutions
  • Challenges in acceptability, local capability development, overcoming implementation inertia, cost effectiveness, etc
  • The role that business partners at SAB and analytics service partners at AbsolutData together play in providing impactful and actionable solutions

 

Speaker: Anne Stephens, SABMiller plc

Speaker: Titir Pal, AbsolutData

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3:35pm-4:25pm

Retail
Case Study: Overtoom Belgium
Increasing Marketing Relevance Through Personalized Targeting

 

Since many years, Overtoom Belgium – a leading B2B retailer and division of the French Manutan group – focuses on an extensive use of CRM. In this presentation, we demonstrate how Overtoom has integrated Predictive Analytics to optimize customer relationships. In this process, they employ analytics to develop answers to the key question: “which product should we offer to which customer via which channel”. We show how Overtoom gained a 10% revenue increase by replacing the existing segmentation scheme with accurate predictive response models. Additionally, we illustrate how Overtoom succeeds to deliver more relevant communications by offering personalized promotional content to every single customer, and how these personalized offers positively impact Overtoom’s conversion rates.

Speaker: Dr. Geert Verstraeten, Python Predictions

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4:25pm-4:50pm

Break / Exhibits
Room: Albert Suites


4:50pm-5:40pm
Uplift Modelling:
Case Study: Lloyds TSB General Insurance & US Bank
Uplift Modelling: You Should Not Only Measure But Model Incremental Response

Most marketing analysts understand that measuring the impact of a marketing campaign requires a valid control group so that uplift (incremental response) can be reported. However, it is much less widely understood that the targeting models used almost everywhere do not attempt to optimize that incremental measure. That requires an uplift model.

This session will explain why a switch to uplift modelling is needed, illustrate what can and does go wrong when they are not used and the hugely positive impact they can have when used effectively. It will also discuss a range of approaches to building and assessing uplift models, from simple basic adjustments to existing modelling processes through to full-blown uplift modelling.

The talk will use Lloyds TSB General Insurance & US Bank as a case study and also illustrate real-world results from other companies and sectors.

 

Speaker: Nicholas Radcliffe, Founder and Director, Stochastic Solutions

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5:40pm-6:30pm

Consumer services
Case Study: Canadian Automobile Association and other B2C examples
The Diminishing Marginal Returns of Variable Creation in Predictive Analytics Solutions

 

Variable Creation is the key to success in any predictive analytics exercise. Many different approaches are adopted during this process, yet there are diminishing marginal returns as the number of variables increase. Our organization conducted a case study on four existing clients to explore this so-called diminishing impact of variable creation on predictive analytics solutions. Existing predictive analytics solutions were built using our traditional variable creation process. Yet, presuming that we could exponentially increase the number of variables, we wanted to determine if this added significant benefit to the existing solution.

Speaker: Richard Boire, BoireFillerGroup

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6:30pm-7:30pm

Reception / Exhibits
Room: Albert Suites


Tuesday November 16, 2010
All conference sessions take place in Edward 5-7

8:00am-9:00am

Registration, Coffee and Danish
Room: Albert Suites


9:00am-9:55am
Keynote
Multiple Case Studies: Anheuser-Busch, Disney, HP, HSBC, Pfizer, and others
The High ROI of Data Mining for Innovative Organizations

Data mining and advanced analytics can enhance your bottom line in three basic ways, by 1) streamlining a process, 2) eliminating the bad, or 3) highlighting the good. In rare situations, a fourth way – creating something new – is possible. But modern organizations are so effective at their core tasks that data mining usually results in an iterative, rather than transformative, improvement. Still, the impact can be dramatic.

Dr. Elder will share the story (problem, solution, and effect) of nine projects conducted over the last decade for some of America’s most innovative agencies and corporations:

    Streamline:

  • Cross-selling for HSBC
  • Image recognition for Anheuser-Busch
  • Biometric identification for Lumidigm (for Disney)
  • Optimal decisioning for Peregrine Systems (now part of Hewlett-Packard)
  • Quick decisions for the Social Security Administration
    Eliminate Bad:

  • Tax fraud detection for the IRS
  • Warranty Fraud detection for Hewlett-Packard
    Highlight Good:

  • Sector trading for WestWind Foundation
  • Drug efficacy discovery for Pharmacia & UpJohn (now Pfizer)

Moderator: Eric Siegel, Program Chair, Predictive Analytics World

Speaker: John Elder, Ph.D., Elder Research, Inc.

Also see Dr. Elder’s full-day workshop

 

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9:55am-10:30am

Break / Exhibits
Room: Albert Suites


10:30am-11:20am
Telecommunications
Case Study: Leading Telecommunications Operator
Predictive Analytics and Efficient Fact-based Marketing

The presentation describes what are the major topics and issues when you introduce predictive analytics and how to build a Fact-Based marketing environment. The introduced tools and methodologies proved to be highly efficient in terms of improving the overall direct marketing activity and customer contact operations for the involved companies. Generally, the introduced approaches have great potential for organizations with large customer bases like Mobile Operators, Internet Giants, Media Companies, or Retail Chains.

Main Introduced Solutions:-Automated Serial Production of Predictive Models for Campaign Targeting-Automated Campaign Measurements and Tracking Solutions-Precise Product Added Value Evaluation.

Speaker: Tamer Keshi, Ph.D., Long-term contractor, T-Mobile

Speaker: Beata Kovacs, International Head of CRM Solutions, Deutsche Telekom

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11:20am-11:25am

Session Changeover


11:25am-12:15pm
Thought Leader
Nine Laws of Data Mining

Data mining is the predictive core of predictive analytics, a business process that finds useful patterns in data through the use of business knowledge. The industry standard CRISP-DM methodology describes the process, but does not explain why the process takes the form that it does. I present nine “laws of data mining”, useful maxims for data miners, with explanations that reveal the reasons behind the surface properties of the data mining process. The nine laws have implications for predictive analytics applications: how and why it works so well, which ambitions could succeed, and which must fail.

 

Speaker: Tom Khabaza, khabaza.com

 

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12:15pm-1:30pm

Lunch / Exhibits
Room: Albert Suites


1:30pm-2:25pm
Expert Panel: Kaboom! Predictive Analytics Hits the Mainstream

Predictive analytics has taken off, across industry sectors and across applications in marketing, fraud detection, credit scoring and beyond. Where exactly are we in the process of crossing the chasm toward pervasive deployment, and how can we ensure progress keeps up the pace and stays on target?

This expert panel will address:

  • How much of predictive analytics’ potential has been fully realized?
  • Where are the outstanding opportunities with greatest potential?
  • What are the greatest challenges faced by the industry in achieving wide scale adoption?
  • How are these challenges best overcome?

 

Panelist: John Elder, Ph.D., Elder Research, Inc.

Panelist: Colin Shearer, WW Industry Solutions Leader, IBM UK Ltd

Panelist: Udo Sglavo, Global Analytic Solutions Manager, SAS

Panel moderator: Eric Siegel, Ph.D., Program Chair, Predictive Analytics World


2:25pm-2:30pm

Session Changeover


2:30pm-3:20pm
Crowdsourcing Data Mining
Case Study: University of Melbourne, Chessmetrics
Prediction Competitions: Far More Than Just a Bit of Fun

Data modelling competitions allow companies and researchers to post a problem and have it scrutinised by the world’s best data scientists. There are an infinite number of techniques that can be applied to any modelling task but it is impossible to know at the outset which will be most effective. By exposing the problem to a wide audience, competitions are a cost effective way to reach the frontier of what is possible from a given dataset. The power of competitions is neatly illustrated by the results of a recent bioinformatics competition hosted by Kaggle. It required participants to pick markers in HIV’s genetic sequence that coincide with changes in the severity of infection. Within a week and a half, the best entry had already outdone the best methods in the scientific literature. This presentation will cover how competitions typically work, some case studies and the types of business modelling challenges that the Kaggle platform can address.

Speaker: Anthony Goldbloom, Kaggle Pty Ltd

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3:20pm-3:50pm

Breaks /Exhibits
Room: Albert Suites


3:50pm-4:40pm
Human Resources; e-Commerce
Case Study: Naukri.com, Jeevansathi.com
Increasing Marketing ROI and Efficiency of Candidate-Search with Predictive Analytics

InfoEdge, India’s largest and most profitable online firm with a bouquet of internet properties has been Google’s biggest customer in India. Our team used predictive modeling to double our profits across multiple fronts. For Naukri.com, India’s number 1 job portal, predictive models target jobseekers most relevant to the recruiter. Analytical insights provided a deeper understanding of recruiter behaviour and informed a redesign of this product’s recruiter search functionality. This session will describe how we did it, and also reveal how Jeevansathi.com, India’s 2nd-largest matrimony portal, targets the acquisition of consumers in the market for marriage.

 

Speaker: Suvomoy Sarkar, Chief Analytics Officer, HT Media & Info Edge India (parent company of the two companies above)

 

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4:40pm-5:00pm
Closing Remarks

Speaker: Eric Siegel, Ph.D., Program Chair, Predictive Analytics World

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Wednesday November 17, 2010

Full-day Workshop
The Best and the Worst of Predictive Analytics:
Predictive Modeling Methods and Common Data Mining Mistakes

Click here for the detailed workshop description

  • Workshop starts at 9:00am
  • First AM Break from 10:00 – 10:15
  • Second AM Break from 11:15 – 11:30
  • Lunch from 12:30 – 1:15pm
  • First PM Break: 2:00 – 2:15
  • Second PM Break: 3:15 – 3:30
  • Workshop ends at 4:30pm

Speaker: John Elder, Ph.D., CEO and Founder, Elder Research, Inc.

 

Scoring SAS and SPSS Models in the cloud

Outline of a cloud containing text 'The Cloud'
Image via Wikipedia

An announcement from Zementis and Predixion Software– about using cloud computing for scoring models using PMML. Note R has a PMML package as well which is used by Rattle, data mining GUI for exporting models.

Source- http://www.marketwatch.com/story/predixion-software-introduces-new-product-to-run-sas-and-spss-predictive-models-in-the-cloud-2010-10-19?reflink=MW_news_stmp

——————————————————————————————————–

ALISO VIEJO, Calif., Oct 19, 2010 (BUSINESS WIRE) — Predixion Software today introduced Predixion PMML Connexion(TM), an interface that provides Predixion Insight(TM), the company’s low-cost, self-service in the cloud predictive analytics solution, direct and seamless access to SAS, SPSS (IBM) and other predictive models for use by Predixion Insight customers. Predixion PMML Connexion enables companies to leverage their significant investments in legacy predictive analytics solutions at a fraction of the cost of conventional licensing and maintenance fees.

The announcement was made at the Predictive Analytics World conference in Washington, D.C. where Predixion also announced a strategic partnership with Zementis, Inc., a market leader in PMML-based solutions. Zementis is exhibiting in Booth #P2.

The Predictive Model Markup Language (PMML) standard allows for true interoperability, offering a mature standard for moving predictive models seamlessly between platforms. Predixion has fully integrated this PMML functionality into Predixion Insight, meaning Predixion Insight users can now effortlessly import PMML-based predictive models, enabling information workers to score the models in the cloud from anywhere and publish reports using Microsoft Excel(R) and SharePoint(R). In addition, models can also be written back into SAS, SPSS and other platforms for a truly collaborative, interoperable solution.

“Predixion’s investment in this PMML interface makes perfect business sense as the lion’s share of the models in existence today are created by the SAS and SPSS platforms, creating compelling opportunity to leverage existing investments in predictive and statistical models on a low-cost cloud predictive analytics platform that can be fed with enterprise, line of business and cloud-based data,” said Mike Ferguson, CEO of Intelligent Business Strategies, a leading analyst and consulting firm specializing in the areas of business intelligence and enterprise business integration. “In this economy, Predixion’s low-cost, self-service predictive analytics solutions might be welcome relief to IT organizations chartered with quickly adding additional applications while at the same time cutting costs and staffing.”

“We are pleased to be partnering with Zementis, truly a PMML market leader and innovator,” said Predixion CEO Simon Arkell. “To allow any SAS or SPSS customer to immediately score any of their predictive models in the cloud from within Predixion Insight, compare those models to those created by Predixion Insight, and share the results within Excel and Sharepoint is an exciting step forward for the industry. SAS and SPSS customers are fed up with the high prices they must pay for their business users just to access reports generated by highly skilled PhDs who are burdened by performing routine tasks and thus have become a massive bottleneck. That frustration is now a thing of the past because any information worker can now unlock the power of predictive analytics without relying on experts — for a fraction of the cost and from anywhere they can connect to the cloud,” Arkell said.

Dr. Michael Zeller, Zementis CEO, added, “Our mission is to significantly shorten the time-to-market for predictive models in any industry. We are excited to be contributing to Predixion’s self-service, cloud-based predictive analytics solution set.”

About Predixion Software

Predixion Software develops and markets collaborative predictive analytics solutions in the public and private cloud. Predixion enables self-service predictive analytics, allowing customers to use and analyze large amounts of data to make actionable decisions, all within the familiar environment of Excel and PowerPivot. Predixion customers are achieving immediate results across a multitude of industries including: retail, finance, healthcare, marketing, telecommunications and insurance/risk management.

Predixion Software is headquartered in Aliso Viejo, California with development offices in Redmond, Washington. The company has venture capital backing from established investors including DFJ Frontier, Miramar Venture Partners and Palomar Ventures. For more information please contact us at 949-330-6540, or visit us atwww.predixionsoftware.com.

About Zementis

Zementis, Inc. is a leading software company focused on the operational deployment and integration of predictive analytics and data mining solutions. Its ADAPA(R) decision engine successfully bridges the gap between science and engineering. ADAPA(R) was designed from the ground up to benefit from open standards and to significantly shorten the time-to-market for predictive models in any industry. For more information, please visit www.zementis.com.