Going off Search Radar for 2012 Q1

I just used the really handy tools at

https://www.google.com/webmasters/tools/crawl-access

, clicked Remove URL

https://www.google.com/webmasters/tools/crawl-access?hl=en&siteUrl=https://decisionstats.com/&tid=removal-list

and submitted http://www.decisionstats.com

and I also modified my robots.txt file to

User-agent: *
Disallow: /

Just to make sure- I added the meta tag to each right margin of my blog

“<meta name=”robots” content=”noindex”>”

Now for last six months of 2011 as per Analytics, search engines were really generous to me- Giving almost 170 K page views,

Source                            Visits          Pages/Visit
1. google                       58,788                       2.14
2. (direct)                     10,832                       2.24
3. linkedin.com            2,038                       2.50
4. google.com                1,823                       2.15
5. bing                              1,007                      2.04
6. reddit.com                    749                       1.93
7. yahoo                              740                      2.25
8. google.co.in                  576                       2.13
9. search                             572                       2.07

 

I do like to experiment though, and I wonder if search engines just –

1) Make people lazy to bookmark or type the whole website name in Chrome/Opera  toolbars

2) Help disguise sources of traffic by encrypted search terms

3) Help disguise corporate traffic watchers and aggregators

So I am giving all spiders a leave for Q1 2012. I am interested in seeing impact of this on my traffic , and I suspect that the curves would not be as linear as I think.

Is search engine optimization over rated? Let the data decide…. 🙂

I am also interested in seeing how social sharing can impact traffic in the absence of search engine interaction effects- and whether it is possible to retain a bigger chunk of traffic by reducing SEO efforts and increasing social efforts!

 

Protected: Happy Labour Day to American Stats-ical Association

This content is password protected. To view it please enter your password below:

Is Random Poetry Click Fraud

Meta-search-vi
Image via Wikipedia

Is poetry when randomized

Tweaked, meta tagged , search engine optimized

Violative of unseen terms and conditional clauses

Is random poetry or aggregated prose farmed for click fraud uses

 

 

 

I dont know, you tell me, says the blog boy,

Tapping away at the keyboard like a shiny new toy,

Geeks unfortunately too often are men too many,

Forgive the generalization, but the tech world is yet to be equalized.

 

If a New York Hot Dog  is a slice of heaven at four bucks a piece

Then why is prose and poetry at five bucks an hour considered waste

Ah I see, you have grown old and cynical,

Of the numerous stupid internet capers and cyber ways

 

The clicking finger clicks on

swiftly but mostly delightfully virally moves on

While people collect its trails and

ponder its aggregated merry ways

 

All people are equal but all links are not,

Thus overturning two centuries of psychology had you been better taught,

But you chose to drop out of school, and create that search engine so big

It is now a fraud catchers head ache that millions try to search engine optimize and rig

 

Once again, people are different, in so many ways so prettier

Links are the same hyper linked code number five or earlier

People think like artificial artificial (thus natural) neural nets

Biochemically enhanced Harmonically possessed.

 

rather than  analyze forensically and quite creepily

where people have been

Gentic Algorithms need some chaos

To see what till now hasnt been seen.

 

Again this was a random poem,

inspired by a random link that someone clicked

To get here, on a carbon burning cyber machine,

Having digested poem, moves on, unheard , unseen.

(Inspired by the Hyper Link at http://goo.gl/a8ijW )

Also-

How to balance your online advertising and your offline conscience

Google in 1998, showing the original logo
Image via Wikipedia

I recently found an interesting example of  a website that both makes a lot of money and yet is much more efficient than any free or non profit. It is called ECOSIA

If you see a website that wants to balance administrative costs  plus have a transparent way to make the world better- this is a great example.

  • http://ecosia.org/how.php
  • HOW IT WORKS
    You search with Ecosia.
  • Perhaps you click on an interesting sponsored link.
  • The sponsoring company pays Bing or Yahoo for the click.
  • Bing or Yahoo gives the bigger chunk of that money to Ecosia.
  • Ecosia donates at least 80% of this income to support WWF’s work in the Amazon.
  • If you like what we’re doing, help us spread the word!
  • Key facts about the park:

    • World’s largest tropical forest reserve (38,867 square kilometers, or about the size of Switzerland)
    • Home to about 14% of all amphibian species and roughly 54% of all bird species in the Amazon – not to mention large populations of at least eight threatened species, including the jaguar
    • Includes part of the Guiana Shield containing 25% of world’s remaining tropical rainforests – 80 to 90% of which are still pristine
    • Holds the last major unpolluted water reserves in the Neotropics, containing approximately 20% of all of the Earth’s water
    • One of the last tropical regions on Earth vastly unaltered by humans
    • Significant contributor to climatic regulation via heat absorption and carbon storage

     

    http://ecosia.org/statistics.php

    They claim to have donated 141,529.42 EUR !!!

    http://static.ecosia.org/files/donations.pdf

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

    Well suppose you are the Web Admin of a very popular website like Wikipedia or etc

    One way to meet server costs is to say openly hey i need to balance my costs so i need some money.

    The other way is to use online advertising.

    I started mine with Google Adsense.

    Click per milli (or CPM)  gives you a very low low conversion compared to contacting ad sponsor directly.

    But its a great data experiment-

    as you can monitor which companies are likely to be advertised on your site (assume google knows more about their algols than you will)

    which formats -banner or text or flash have what kind of conversion rates

    what are the expected pay off rates from various keywords or companies (like business intelligence software, predictive analytics software and statistical computing software are similar but have different expected returns (if you remember your eco class)

     

    NOW- Based on above data, you know whats your minimum baseline to expect from a private advertiser than a public, crowd sourced search engine one (like Google or Bing)

    Lets say if you have 100000 views monthly. and assume one out of 1000 page views will lead to a click. Say the advertiser will pay you 1 $ for every 1 click (=1000 impressions)

    Then your expected revenue is $100.But if your clicks are priced at 2.5$ for every click , and your click through rate is now 3 out of 1000 impressions- (both very moderate increases that can done by basic placement optimization of ad type, graphics etc)-your new revenue is  750$.

    Be a good Samaritan- you decide to share some of this with your audience -like 4 Amazon books per month ( or I free Amazon book per week)- That gives you a cost of 200$, and leaves you with some 550$.

    Wait! it doesnt end there- Adam Smith‘s invisible hand moves on .

    You say hmm let me put 100 $ for an annual paper writing contest of $1000, donate $200 to one laptop per child ( or to Amazon rain forests or to Haiti etc etc etc), pay $100 to your upgraded server hosting, and put 350$ in online advertising. say $200 for search engines and $150 for Facebook.

    Woah!

    Month 1 would should see more people  visiting you for the first time. If you have a good return rate (returning visitors as a %, and low bounce rate (visits less than 5 secs)- your traffic should see atleast a 20% jump in new arrivals and 5-10 % in long term arrivals. Ignoring bounces- within  three months you will have one of the following

    1) An interesting case study on statistics on online and social media advertising, tangible motivations for increasing community response , and some good data for study

    2) hopefully better cost management of your server expenses

    3)very hopefully a positive cash flow

     

    you could even set a percentage and share the monthly (or annually is better actions) to your readers and advertisers.

    go ahead- change the world!

    the key paradigms here are sharing your traffic and revenue openly to everyone

    donating to a suitable cause

    helping increase awareness of the suitable cause

    basing fixed percentages rather than absolute numbers to ensure your site and cause are sustained for years.

    New Year Resolutions (mostly)

    Top  New Year Resolutions

    I will lose (or do less of)-

    • weight (in pounds or kilos)
    • double (or triple chins)
    • stretch marks,cellulite, acne
    • generally try and eat /drink/smoke less

    I will gain (or do more of)

    • exercise
    • more time with family
    • write my book/blog/poetry

    I will quit (or stop doing this)

    • smoking
    • drinking
    • miscellaneous time or health wasting addictions

    I will start (initiative)

    • my secret hobby (blog)
    • my latent fantasy (business)
    • something I always wanted to do but didnt, and so likely wouldnt, but it looks good on the list (vacation)
    • keeping my new year resolutions because my spouse and kids forced me to (but not say so too loudly).

    Happy New resolutions folks

    Jobs in Analytics

    Here are some jobs from Vincent Granville, founder Analyticbridge. Please contact him directly- I just thought the Season of Joy should have better jobs than currently.

    ————————————————————————————–

    Several job ads recently posted on DataShaping / AnalyticBridge, across United Sates and in Europe. Use the DataShaping search box to find more opportunities.

    Job ads are posted at:

     

    Selected opportunities:

    Quantitative Modeling Consultants – Agilex (Alexandria, VA)
    Sr. Software Development Engineers – Agilex (Alexandria, VA)
    Actuary – FBL Financial Group (Des Moines, IA)
    Relevance scientist – Yandex Labs (Palo Alto, CA)
    Research Engineer, Search Ranking – Chomp (San Francisco, CA)
    Mathematical Modeling and Optimization – Exxon (Clinton, NJ)
    Data Analyst – DISH Network (Englewood, CO)
    Sr Aviation Planning Research & Data Analyst – Port of Seattle (Seattle, WA)
    Statistician / Quantitative Analyst – Indeed (Austin, TX)
    Statistician – Pratt & Whitney (East Hartford, CT)
    Biostatistician – The J. David Gladstone Institutes (San Francisco, CA)
    Customer Service Representative (oklahoma, OK)
    Program Associate – Cambridge Systematics (Washington D.C., DC)
    Sr Risk Analyst – Paypal (Omaha, NE)
    Sr. Actuarial Analyst – Farmers (Simi Valley, CA)
    Senior Statistician, Data Services – Equifax (Alpharetta, GA)
    Business Intelligence Analyst – Burbery (NYC, NY)
    Fact Extraction – Amazon (Seattle, WA)
    Senior Researcher – Bing (Bellevue, WA)
    Senior Statistical Research Analyst – Walt Disney (Lake Buena Vista, FL)
    Statistician – Capital One (Nottingham, NH)
    Lead Data Analyst – Barclays (Northampton, UK)
    Analytical Data Scientist – Aviagen (Huntsville, AL or Edinburgh, UK)
    VP of Engineering for Analytics (Bay Area, CA)
    Senior Software Engineer – Numenta (Redwood City, CA)
    Numenta Internship Program – Numenta (Redwood City, CA)
    Director of Analytics – Mozilla Corporation (Mountain View, CA)
    Senior Sales Engineer – Statsoft (NY, NY)

    Google Raise What

    Google recently did the following-

    1 Raised salaries by 1000 $ across board, and gave a 10% increase at lower levels to reportedly 30% increase at higher levels.

    The surprise 1000$ cash bonus , was a simple application of expectation management, people love a surprise 1000$ raise, but hate if told they would be getting a 90$ raise in their monthly salary from next quarter.

    Ex Googlers or GoogleX as the groups is called have helped create a lot of not so evil value at Facebook, and at Twitter. Even the rest of the World made more money on Map Reduce than Google itself did

    And Google refuses to do simple things like sell Android )s at 10 bucks a pop, or Google Maps at 0.99 cents a pop. Not even a paid content search by integrating syndicating sources like Factiva, Bloomberg etc

    The book scanning project would be out soon , hey when, but they could better get some health record scanning contracts to help cut digital costs

    And the A/B experiment to move to pay per conversion rather than pay per click will hurt spamboy advertisers in Facebook or Bing more than Google.

    and will someone remove the 100$ limit in Adsense minimum revenue-the internet long tail doesnt end at the round number

    But Google ‘s rumors of firing the guy who leaked the raise rumor is totally deception –

    seems they are just plugging the leaks for hot new features to counter Gmail killers (where did we heard this phrase before) by

    Mark “Still dont have a diploma from Harvard”

    speaking of which if Facebook has 500 million unique customers logging and clicking ads (right)- how many unique customers search and click ads on Google. A histogram using a Monte Carlo would be nice- 🙂

     

     

    Image using png package courtesy Romain Francois at http://romainfrancois.blog.free.fr/