Tag: blog

Lovely forecasting blog

Eight different random walks.
Image via Wikipedia

I really loved this simple, smart and yet elegant explanation of forecasting. even a high school quarterback could understand it, and maybe get a internship job building and running and re running code for Mars shot.

Despite my plea that you remain svelte in real life, I implore you to be naïve in business forecasting – and use a naïve forecasting model early and often. A naïve forecasting model is the most important model you will ever use in business forecasting.

and now the killer line

Purists may argue that the only true naïve forecast is the “no-change” forecast, meaning either a random walk (forecast = last known actual) or a seasonal random walk (e.g. forecast = actual from corresponding period last year). These are referred to as NF1 and NF2 in the Makridakis text (where NF = Naïve Forecast). In our 2006 SAS webseries Finding Flaws in Forecasting, an attendee asked “What about using a simple time series forecast with no intervention as the naïve forecast?” Is that allowed?

i did write a blog article on forecasting some time back, but back then I was a little blogger, with the website name being http://iwannacrib.com

great work in helping make forecasting easier to understand for people who have flower shops and dont have a bee, to help them with the forecasts, nor an geeky email list, not 4000$.

make it easier for the little guy to forecast his sales, so he cuts down on his supply chain inventory, lowering his carbon footprint.

Blog.sas.com take a bow, on labour day, helping workers with easy to understand models.

http://blogs.sas.com/forecasting/index.php?/archives/68-Which-Naive-Model-to-Use.html

FlattR goes free for all bloggers

This is the Flattr right now
Image via Wikipedia

Email from people at FlattR. What is FlattR- social micropayments. like small Paypal button that gives a fraction of your monthly budget (say 2 euros) to people you retweet/like (called Flattered in this social media service).

Some angels are smiling over some bays , it seems. congrats FlattR and their team (which includes tech team of largest bit torrent search engine in the world). Apparently this was done in time for the royal wedding.

Important service announcement

Hello!
Flattr’s first year has been great. And not just for us but for tens of thousands of bloggers, podcasters, developers, designers and other creators out there. Just ask Tim. We’re now making an important change to the service, one which should open the floodgates of Flattr, if you will.
From May 1st we no longer require users to flattr others before they can be flattrd. Or in other words, it’s not mandatory to add money to your account to have an active Flattr button.

How does this affect you?
If you’re mainly using Flattr to make payments you will soon have much more content to flattr.If you’re using Flattr both to make and receive payments then you no longer need to check your balance at the end of each month to see whether your Flattr button is still active or not. It is and always will be.

If your Flattr button was once deactivated because balance dropped to zero, it is now active again. Forever.

This makes Flattr simpler
We have good reasons for making this change and we’ve just added a post about it on our blog. In a nutshell, we just didn’t need to force the give before you get principle onto people. During the the last year we’ve learned that people want to flattr the content they like and therefore we decided to drop any rules that made the service restrictive or outright complicated.We hope you’ll like the simpler more straightforward Flattr. If you have any comments, questions or feedback please get in touch via our blog or support page.

Linus, Peter and the rest of Flattr team
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Getting Flatr on a wordpress.com blog

What is Flattr?

social micro payments- aka another way for bloggers, tweeters, facebookies to make money.

Thing of it as the Paypal plus a ReTweetmeme button.

FlattR is the new legal business of the creator of Pirate Bay- the large search engine for bit torrent data.

 and how to enable it on WordPress.com

Read some snarkly grrovy instructions here with a screenshot

http://thereturnofthepublic.wordpress.com/2011/04/10/putting-flattr-on-a-wordpress-com-blog-a-guide-for-drooling-imbeciles/

1.) Open a Flattr.com account here. This should be reasonably straightforward. A monkey hitting keys at random could manage it in about half an hour. It took me less than 45 minutes.

2.) In the top right of ‘Your Flattr Dashboard’ there is a button ‘Submit Thing’. Click on that and enter the details of your blog – the URL (like decisionstats.com for me) and a description (make that atleast 3 sentences). Flattr will create a page – for example,https://flattr.com/thing/162940/example-blog


Now go to your wordpress dashboard- sharing tab.

/wp-admin/options-general.php?page=sharing

Add the following lines to your New Add Service in respective tabs

URL= https://flattr.com/thing/175763/DecisionStats (change this to the one created for yourself instep2 above)

ICON = http://api.flatrr.com/button/flattr-badge-large.png

 If you have a non WordPress blog see instructions at http://markup.io/v/jz3wv155bsfg or screenshot of instructions here-

Predictive Analytics World Conference –New York City and London, UK

Please use the following code  to get a 15% discount on the 2 Day Conference Pass:  AJAYNY11.

Predictive Analytics World Conference –New York City and London, UK

October 17-21, 2011 – New York City, NY (pawcon.com/nyc)
Nov 30 – Dec 1, 2011 – London, UK (pawcon.com/london)

Predictive Analytics World (pawcon.com) is the business-focused event for predictive analytics
professionals, managers and commercial practitioners, covering today’s commercial deployment of
predictive analytics, across industries and across software vendors. The conference delivers case
studies, expertise, and resources to achieve two objectives:

1) Bigger wins: Strengthen the business impact delivered by predictive analytics

2) Broader capabilities: Establish new opportunities with predictive analytics

Case Studies: How the Leading Enterprises Do It

Predictive Analytics World focuses on concrete examples of deployed predictive analytics. The leading
enterprises have signed up to tell their stories, so you can hear from the horse’s mouth precisely how
Fortune 500 analytics competitors and other top practitioners deploy predictive modeling, and what
kind of business impact it delivers.

PAW NEW YORK CITY 2011

PAW’s NYC program is the richest and most diverse yet, featuring over 40 sessions across three tracks
– including both X and Y tracks, and an “Expert/Practitioner” track — so you can witness how predictive
analytics is applied at major companies.

PAW NYC’s agenda covers hot topics and advanced methods such as ensemble models, social data,
search marketing, crowdsourcing, blackbox trading, fraud detection, risk management, survey analysis,
and other innovative applications that benefit organizations in new and creative ways.

WORKSHOPS: PAW NYC also features five full-day pre- and post-conference workshops that
complement the core conference program. Workshop agendas include advanced predictive modeling
methods, hands-on training, an intro to R (the open source analytics system), and enterprise decision
management.

For more see http://www.predictiveanalyticsworld.com/newyork/2011/

PAW LONDON 2011

PAW London’s agenda covers hot topics and advanced methods such as risk management, uplift
(incremental lift) modeling, open source analytics, and crowdsourcing data mining. Case study
presentations cover campaign targeting, churn modeling, next-best-offer, selecting marketing channels,
global analytics deployment, email marketing, HR candidate search, and other innovative applications
that benefit organizations in new and creative ways.

Join PAW and access the best keynotes, sessions, workshops, exposition, expert panel, live demos,
networking coffee breaks, reception, birds-of-a-feather lunches, brand-name enterprise leaders, and

industry heavyweights in the business.

For more see http://www.predictiveanalyticsworld.com/london

CROSS-INDUSTRY APPLICATIONS

Predictive Analytics World is the only conference of its kind, delivering vendor-neutral sessions across
verticals such as banking, financial services, e-commerce, education, government, healthcare, high
technology, insurance, non-profits, publishing, social gaming, retail and telecommunications

And PAW covers the gamut of commercial applications of predictive analytics, including response
modeling, customer retention with churn modeling, product recommendations, fraud detection, online
marketing optimization, human resource decision-making, law enforcement, sales forecasting, and
credit scoring.

Why bring together such a wide range of endeavors? No matter how you use predictive analytics, the
story is the same: Predicatively scoring customers optimizes business performance. Predictive analytics
initiatives across industries leverage the same core predictive modeling technology, share similar project
overhead and data requirements, and face common process challenges and analytical hurdles.

RAVE REVIEWS:

“Hands down, best applied, analytics conference I have ever attended. Great exposure to cutting-edge
predictive techniques and I was able to turn around and apply some of those learnings to my work
immediately. I’ve never been able to say that after any conference I’ve attended before!”

Jon Francis
Senior Statistician
T-Mobile

Read more: Articles and blog entries about PAW can be found at http://www.predictiveanalyticsworld.com/
pressroom.php

VENDORS. Meet the vendors and learn about their solutions, software and service. Discover the best
predictive analytics vendors available to serve your needs – learn what they do and see how they
compare

COLLEAGUES. Mingle, network and hang out with your best and brightest colleagues. Exchange
experiences over lunch, coffee breaks and the conference reception connecting with those professionals
who face the same challenges as you.

GET STARTED. If you’re new to predictive analytics, kicking off a new initiative, or exploring new ways
to position it at your organization, there’s no better place to get your bearings than Predictive Analytics
World. See what other companies are doing, witness vendor demos, participate in discussions with the
experts, network with your colleagues and weigh your options!

For more information:
http://www.predictiveanalyticsworld.com

View videos of PAW Washington DC, Oct 2010 — now available on-demand:
http://www.predictiveanalyticsworld.com/online-video.php

What is predictive analytics? See the Predictive Analytics Guide:
http://www.predictiveanalyticsworld.com/predictive_analytics.php

If you’d like our informative event updates, sign up at:
http://www.predictiveanalyticsworld.com/signup-us.php

To sign up for the PAW group on LinkedIn, see:
http://www.linkedin.com/e/gis/1005097

For inquiries e-mail regsupport@risingmedia.com or call (717) 798-3495.

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Google unleashes Fusion Tables

I just discovered Fusion Tables. There is life beyond the amazing Jeff’s Amazon Ec2/s3 after all!

Check out http://www.google.com/fusiontables/public/tour/index.html

Gather, visualize and share data online

Don’t have a Google Account?
Create one now

  • Visualize and publish your data as maps, timelines and charts
  • Host your data tables online
  • Combine data from multiple people

data table turns into map

Google Fusion Tables is a modern data management and publishing web application that makes it easy
to host, manage, collaborate on, visualize, and publish data tables online.

What can I do with Google Fusion Tables?

Import your own data
Upload data tables from spreadsheets or CSV files, even KML. Developers can use the Fusion Tables API to insert, update, delete and query data programmatically. You can export your data as CSV or KML too.

Visualize it instantly
See the data on a map or as a chart immediately. Use filters for more selective visualizations.

Publish your visualization on other web properties
Now that you’ve got that nice map or chart of your data, you can embed it in a web page or blog post. Or send a link by email or IM. It will always display the latest data values from your table and helps you communicate your story more easily.

Look at the Fusion Tables Example Gallery

at https://sites.google.com/site/fusiontablestalks/stories

If you are worried about data.gov closing down, heres a snapshot of Fusion Table Public datasets.


 

so I decide to quit blog and be a singer

Not kidding. but seriously. check out

http://www.google.co.in/search?source=aig&hl=en&rlz=&q=recursion&aq=f&aqi=g10&aql=&oq=

Libre Office turns six

On September 28th, 2010, The Document Foundation was announced. The last six months, it feels, have just passed within a short glimpse of time. Not only did we release three LibreOffice versions within three months, have created the LibreOffice-Box DVD image, and brought LibreOffice Portable on its way. We also have announced the LibreOffice Conference for October 2011 and have taken part in lots of events worldwide, with FOSDEM and CeBIT being the most prominent ones.

People follow us at Twitter, Identi.ca, XING, LinkedIn and a Facebook group and fan page, they discuss on our mailing lists with more than 6.000 subscriptions, collaborate in our wiki, get insight on our daily work in our blog, and post and blog themselves. From the very first day, openness, transparency and meritocracy have been shaping the framework we want to work in. Our discussions and decisions take place on a public mailing list, and regularly, we hold phone conferences for the Steering Committee and for the marketing teams, where everyone is invited to join. Our ideas and visions have made their way into our Next Decade Manifesto.

We have joined the Open Invention Network as well as the OpenDoc Society, and just last week have become an SPI-associated project, and we see a wide range of support from all over the world. Not only do Novell and Red Hat support our efforts with developers, but just recently, Canonical, creators of Ubuntu, joined as well. All major Linux distributions deliver LibreOffice with their operating systems, and more follow every day.

One of the most stunning contributions, that still leaves us speechless, is the support that we receive from the community. When we asked for 50,000 € capital stock for a German-based foundation, the community showed their support, appreciation and their power, and not only donated it in just eight days, but up to now has supported us with close to 100,000 €! Another one is that driven by our open, vendor neutral approach, combined with our easy hacks, we have included code contributions from over 150 entirely new developers to the project, alongside localisations from over 50 localizers. The community has developed itself better than we could ever dream of, and first meetings like the project’s weekend or the QA meeting of the Germanophone group are already being organized.

What we have seen now is just the beginning of something very big. The Document Foundation has a vision, and the creation of the foundation in Germany is about to happen soon. LibreOffice has been downloaded over 350,000 times within the first week, and we just counted more than 1,3 million downloads just from our download system — not counting packages directly delivered by Linux distributors, other download sites or DVDs included in magazines and newspapers — supported by 65 mirrors from all over the world, and millions already use and contribute to it worldwide. With our participation in the Google Summer of Code, we will engage more students and young developers to be part of our community. Our improved release schedule will ensure that new features and improvements will make their way to end-users soon, and for testers, we even provide daily builds.

We are so excited by what has been achieved over the last six months, and we are immensely grateful to all those who have supported the project in whatever ways they can. It is an honour to be working with you, to be part of one united community! The future as we are shaping it has just begun, and it will be bright and excellent.

 

from-

List archive: http://listarchives.documentfoundation.org/www/announce/

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