R Concerto- Computer Adaptive Tests

A really nice use for R is education

http://www.psychometrics.cam.ac.uk/page/300/concerto-testing-platform.htm

Concerto: R-Based Online Adaptive Testing Platform

Concerto is a web based, adaptive testing platform for creating and running rich, dynamic tests. It combines the flexibility of HTML presentation with the computing power of the R language, and the safety and performance of the MySQL database. It’s totally free for commercial and academic use, and it’s open source. If you have any questions, you feel like generously supporting the project, or you want to develop a commerical test on the platform, feel free to email Michal Kosinski.

We rely as much as possible on popular open source packages in order to maximize the safety and reliability of the system, and to ensure that its elements are kept up-to-date.

Why choose Concerto?

  • Simple to use: Check our Step-by-Step tutorial to see how to create a test in minutes.
  • Flexibility: You can use the R engine to apply virtually any IRT or CAT models.
  • Scalability: Modular design, MySQL tables, and low system requirements allow the testing of thousands for pennies.
  • Reliability: Concerto relies on popular, constantly updated, and reliable elements used by millions of users world-wide.
  • Elegant feedback and items: The flexibility of the HTML layer and the power of R allow you to use (or generate on the fly!) polished multi-media items, as well as feedback full of graphs and charts generated by R for each test taker.
  • Low costs: It’s free and open-source!

Demonstration tests:

 Concerto explained:

Get Concerto:

Before installing concerto you may prefer to test it using a demo account on our server.Email Michal Kosinski in order to get demo account.

Training in Concerto:

Next session 9th Dec 2011: book early!

Commercial tests and Concerto:

Concerto is an open-source project so anyone can use it free of charge, even for commercial purposes. However, it might be faster and less expensive to hire our experienced team to develop your test, provide support and maintenance, and take responsibility for its smooth and reliable operation. Contact us!

 

C4ISTAR for Hacking and Cyber Conflict

As per http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/C4ISTAR

C2I stands for command, control, and intelligence.

C3I stands for command, control, communications, and intelligence.

C4I stands for command, control, communications, computers, and (military) intelligence.

C4ISTAR is the British acronym used to represent the group of the military functions designated by C4 (command, control, communications, computers), I (military intelligence), and STAR (surveillance, target acquisition, and reconnaissance) in order to enable the coordination of operations

I increasingly believe that cyber conflict will develop its own terminology and theory and paradigms in due time. In the meantime, it will adopt paradigms from existing military literature and adapt it to the unique sub culture of cyber conflict for both offensive, defensive as well as pre-emptive actions. Here I am theorizing for a case of targeted hacking attacks rather than massive attacks that bring down a website for a few hours and achieve nothing but a few press headlines . I would also theorize on countering such attacks.

So what would be the C4ISTAR for –

1) Media company supporting SOPA/PIPA/Take down Mega Upload-

Command and Control refers to the ability of commanders to direct forces-

This will be the senior executives including the members of board, legal officers, and public relationship/marketing people. Their name is available from corporate websites, and social media scraping can ensure both a list of contact addresses (online) as well as biases for phishing /malware attacks. This could also include phone (flooding or voicemail hacking ) attacks , and attacks against the email server of the company rather than the corporate website.

Communications– This will include all online and social media channels including websites of the media company , but also  those of the press relations firms handling communications , phones,websites- anything which the target is likely to communicate externally (and if possible internal communication)

Timing is everything- coordinating attacks immediately is juevenile, but it might be more mature to attack on vulnerable days like product launches or just before a board of directors meeting

Intelligence

Most corporates have an in-house research team, they can be easily targeted using social media channels, but also offline research and digging deep. Targeting intelligence corps of the target corporate is likely to produce a much better disruption. Eventually they can be persuaded to stop working for that corporate.

Computers– Anything that runs on electricity and can be disabled – should be disabled. This might require much more creativity than just flooding.

 surveillance-  This can be both online as well as offline, and would be of electronic assets, likely responses for the attack, and the key people who are to be disrupted.

target acquisition-  at least ten people within each corporate can and should be ideally disrupted, rather than just the website. this would call for social media scraping, and prior planning. even email in-boxes can be disrupted (if all else fails)

and reconnaissance-

study your target companies, target employees, and their strategies.

Then segment and prioritize in a list of  matrix of 10  to 10, who is more vulnerable and who is more valuable to attack.

the C4ISTAR for -a hacker activist organization is much more complicated but forensics reveal that most hackers tend to leave a signature style (in terms of computers,operating systems,machine ids,communication, tools, or even port numbers used)

the best defense for a media rich company to prevent hacking attacks is to first identify its own C4ISTAR structure for its digital content strategy and then fortify as well as scrub vulnerabilities (including from online information regarding its own employees)

(to be continued)

http://www.catb.org/~esr/faqs/hacker-howto.html

The Hacker Attitude

Going off Search Radar for 2012 Q1

I just used the really handy tools at

https://www.google.com/webmasters/tools/crawl-access

, clicked Remove URL

https://www.google.com/webmasters/tools/crawl-access?hl=en&siteUrl=https://decisionstats.com/&tid=removal-list

and submitted http://www.decisionstats.com

and I also modified my robots.txt file to

User-agent: *
Disallow: /

Just to make sure- I added the meta tag to each right margin of my blog

“<meta name=”robots” content=”noindex”>”

Now for last six months of 2011 as per Analytics, search engines were really generous to me- Giving almost 170 K page views,

Source                            Visits          Pages/Visit
1. google                       58,788                       2.14
2. (direct)                     10,832                       2.24
3. linkedin.com            2,038                       2.50
4. google.com                1,823                       2.15
5. bing                              1,007                      2.04
6. reddit.com                    749                       1.93
7. yahoo                              740                      2.25
8. google.co.in                  576                       2.13
9. search                             572                       2.07

 

I do like to experiment though, and I wonder if search engines just –

1) Make people lazy to bookmark or type the whole website name in Chrome/Opera  toolbars

2) Help disguise sources of traffic by encrypted search terms

3) Help disguise corporate traffic watchers and aggregators

So I am giving all spiders a leave for Q1 2012. I am interested in seeing impact of this on my traffic , and I suspect that the curves would not be as linear as I think.

Is search engine optimization over rated? Let the data decide…. 🙂

I am also interested in seeing how social sharing can impact traffic in the absence of search engine interaction effects- and whether it is possible to retain a bigger chunk of traffic by reducing SEO efforts and increasing social efforts!

 

Quantitative Modeling for Arbitrage Positions in Ad KeyWords Internet Marketing

Assume you treat an ad keyword as an equity stock. There are slight differences in the cost for advertising for that keyword across various locations (Zurich vs Delhi) and various channels (Facebook vs Google) . You get revenue if your website ranks naturally in organic search for the keyword, and you have to pay costs for getting traffic to your website for that keyword.
An arbitrage position is defined as a riskless profit when cost of keyword is less than revenue from keyword. We take examples of Adsense  and Adwords primarily.
There are primarily two types of economic curves on the foundation of which commerce of the  internet  resides-
1) Cost Curve- Cost of Advertising to drive traffic into the website  (Google Adwords, Twitter Ads, Facebook , LinkedIn ads)
2) Revenue Curve – Revenue from ads clicked by the incoming traffic on website (like Adsense, LinkAds, Banner Ads, Ad Sharing Programs , In Game Ads)
The cost and revenue curves are primarily dependent on two things
1) Type of KeyWord-Also subdependent on
a) Location of Prospective Customer, and
b) Net Present Value of Good and Service to be eventually purchased
For example , keyword for targeting sales of enterprise “business intelligence software” should ideally be costing say X times as much as keywords for “flower shop for birthdays” where X is the multiple of the expected payoffs from sales of business intelligence software divided by expected payoff from sales of flowers (say in Location, Daytona Beach ,Florida or Austin, Texas)
2) Traffic Volume – Also sub-dependent on Time Series and
a) Seasonality -Annual Shoppping Cycle
b) Cyclicality– Macro economic shifts in time series
The cost and revenue curves are not linear and ideally should be continuous in a definitive exponential or polynomial manner, but in actual reality they may have sharp inflections , due to location, time, as well as web traffic volume thresholds
Type of Keyword – For example ,keywords for targeting sales for Eminem Albums may shoot up in a non linear manner after the musician dies.
The third and not so publicly known component of both the cost and revenue curves is factoring in internet industry dynamics , including relative market share of internet advertising platforms, as well as percentage splits between content creator and ad providing platforms.
For example, based on internet advertising spend, people belive that the internet advertising is currently heading for a duo-poly with Google and Facebook are the top two players, while Microsoft/Skype/Yahoo and LinkedIn/Twitter offer niche options, but primarily depend on price setting from Google/Bing/Facebook.
It is difficut to quantify  the elasticity and efficiency of market curves as most literature and research on this is by in-house corporate teams , or advisors or mentors or consultants to the primary leaders in a kind of incesteous fraternal hold on public academic research on this.
It is recommended that-
1) a balance be found in the need for corporate secrecy to protest shareholder value /stakeholder value maximization versus the need for data liberation for innovation and grow the internet ad pie faster-
2) Cost and Revenue Curves between different keywords, time,location, service providers, be studied by quants for hedging inetrent ad inventory or /and choose arbitrage positions This kind of analysis is done for groups of stocks and commodities in the financial world, but as commerce grows on the internet this may need more specific and independent quants.
3) attention be made to how cost and revenue curves mature as per level of sophistication of underlying economy like Brazil, Russia, China, Korea, US, Sweden may be in different stages of internet ad market evolution.
For example-
A study in cost and revenue curves for certain keywords across domains across various ad providers across various locations from 2003-2008 can help academia and research (much more than top ten lists of popular terms like non quantitative reports) as well as ensure that current algorithmic wightings are not inadvertently given away.
Part 2- of this series will explore the ways to create third party re-sellers of keywords and measuring impacts of search and ad engine optimization based on keywords.

Oracle Public Cloud

The slick website of Oracle Public Cloud- coming soon to an office near your location.

 

and including the oracle social network 😉

http://cloud.oracle.com/mycloud/f?p=service:social:0

Oracle Social Network

A secure collaboration tool for everyone you work with.

Public Cloud

http://cloud.oracle.com/mycloud/f?p=5001:1:0#

 

Occupy the Internet

BORN IN THE USA

Continue reading “Occupy the Internet”

Google Webinar on Web Analytics

Google webinar on web analytics-

recommended for anyone with anything to do with the WWW

From

http://analytics.blogspot.com/2011/11/webinar-reaching-your-goals-with.html

 

Webinar: Reaching Your Goals with Analytics

 

 

Is your website performing as well as it could be? Do you want to get more out of your digital marketing campaigns, including AdWords and other digital media? Do you feel like you have gaps in your current Google Analytics setup?

We’ve heard from many of our users who want to go deeper into their Analytics — with so much data, it can be hard to know where to look first. If you’d like to move beyond standard “pageview” metrics and visitor statistics, then please join us next Thursday:

Webinar: Reaching Your Goals with Analytics
Date: Thursday, December 1
Time: 11am PST / 2pm EST
Sign up here!

During the webinar, we’ll cover:

  • Key questions to ask for richer insights from your data
  • How to define “success” (for websites, visitors, or campaigns)
  • How to set up and use Goals
  • How to set up and use Ecommerce (for websites with a shopping cart)
  • How to link AdWords to your Google Analytics account

Whatever your online business model — shopping, lead-generation, or pure content — these tools will deliver actionable insights into your buying cycle.

This webinar will be led by Joe Larkin, a technical specialist on the Google Analytics team, and it’s designed for intermediate users of Google Analytics. If you’re comfortable with the basics, but you’d like to do more with your data, then we hope you’ll join us next week!