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The declining market for Telecommunication Churn Models

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Users of Predictive Analytics within telecom sector can look into an interesting side effect of the iPhone – AT &T agreement. With Google also jumping into the market with it’s Droid – the new norms in Telecom agreements is lockedin contracts for consumers. While this is permitted by the telecom regulators as fair to competition- this also means that there is very little churn within these locked in contracts. This leads to further savings for the telecom provider allowing them to have higher profits and even share the profits by price decreases-

and thus the traditional bug bear of telecom analytics churn modeling is slowly losing importance to plain vanilla reporting or better data mining dashboard like solutions. Lower Churn , means also lower costs on analytics softwares to predict churn.

As competition within the 3G Mobile market ramps up due to Google’s entry and licensing with partners exclusively- the trend will likely increase for reduced churn due to locked in customers.Even existing mobile providers can offer discounts to lock in customers for not switching ( especially in Mobile Markets like India- where I have personally interacted with large players like Bharti) and China which has even bigger mobile market.

Ergo Lower need to buy softwares that predict churn-

See Below Image from TeraData’s Churn Model.

The Great Game- How social media changes the Intelligence Industry

Since time immemorial, countries and corporations have used spies to displace existing equilibriums in balance of power or market share dynamics. An integral part of that was technology. From the pox infested rugs given to natives, to the plague rats, to the smuggling of the secret of silk and gunpowder from China to the West to the latest research in cloud seeding by China and Glaciars melting by India- technology espionage has been an integral part in keeping up with each other.

For the first time in history, technology has evolved to the point where tools for communicating securely , storing data has become cheap to the point of just having a small iPhone 3GS with applications for secure transmission. From an analytical purpose the need for analyzing signal from noise and the criticality in mapping chatter with events (like Major Hasan’s online activities)  has also created an opportunity for social media as well as an headache for the people involved. With Citizen Journalism, foreign relations office, and ambassadors with their bully pulpits have been brought down to defending news leaked by Twitter ( Iran) You Tube ( Thailand/Burma/Tibet) and Blogs ( Russia/Georgia). The rise of bot nets, dark clouds to create disruptions as well as hack into accounts for enhancing favourable noise and reducing unfavourable signals has only increased. Blogs have potential to influence customer behavior as they are seen more credible than public relations which is mostly public and rarely on relations.

Techniques like sentiment analysis , social network analysis, text mining and co relation of keywords to triggers remain active research points.

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The United States remains a leader as you can only think creatively out of a box if you are permitted to behave accordingly out of the box. The remaining countries are torn between a  mix of admiration , envy and plain old copy cat techniques. The rising importance of communities that act more tribal than hitherto loyal technology user lists is the reason almost all major corporates actively seek to cultivate social media communities. The market for blogs and twitter in China or Iran or Russia will have impacts on those government’s efforts to manage their growth as per their national strategic interests. Just like the title of an old and quaint novel- “The Brave New World” of social media and it’s convergence with increasing amounts of text data generated on customers, or citizens is evolving into creating new boundaries and space for itself.A fascinating Great Game in itself.

The Great Driving Challenge- coolest young couples

Here is one of the new startups in India. A batch mate from B school whom I owe too many beers, and too few

calculus notes —–well he asked me to help him vote. Treat this as shameless self promotion just like http://www.cerebralmastication.com/ ‘s moustache and R rated R stats profanity on #rstats in twitter

Please do vote and read- they are a fun couple. http://www.greatdrivingchallenge.com/application/1245656268196502/

The Great Driving Challenge

White Riders

Here is a nice company started by a fellow batchmate from the Indian Institute of Management, Kaustubh Mishra. It is called White Riders- It is a relative pioneer in adventure travel. Note these bikers are well behaved MBA’s and imparting Team Building Management lessons along the way. I caught up with Kaustubh long enough for him to tell me why he chose the adventure travel business.

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Ajay – What has been the story of your career and what message would you like to send to young people aspiring for MBA’s or just starting their careers?

Kaustubh- My first job was as a peon with SPCA, handling paperwork, dishes, etc. My Father wanted to see me getting a bicycle from my own money and that is why it happened. Thanks to Papa, I learnt some important lessons while serving people. During graduation I was doing odd jobs like a faculty at a computer institute, freelance programmer, etc.

The first experience of a large organization came @ Bharti Telecom, where I did my summers. It was a market research project and I remember sleeping in an interviewee’s cabin during a survey. After my PGDM from IIML, I got into Tech Pacific, and then ICICI then ABN AMRO. Please visit my linkedin profile for more details

My message to people doing their MBA is simple – MBA is not the end, it is just a via media for you to get into a good career. Get into an MBA because YOU want to do it and not because everyone else is doing it. There are so many careers options in front of you, follow your heart.

For people starting their careers, just 7 words – realize the power within & follow your dreams.

Ajay- Why did you create a startup? Why did you name it White Collar company ( there was an ad of a business school reunion which had the same name). What is your vision for White Collar Company
Kaustubh
– When I was doing my job, I was always over achieving targets, but after some time a rut sets in. I also realized that complete freedom and maximum returns for my efforts were absent. There were so many things, ideas, etc simmering inside me but I could not do anything inside. To do all that, I had to venture on my own and venture I did. So the biggest reason I started my own company was to put my ideas into practice.

White Collar is a name generally associated with knowledge. I first wanted to name it ‘white’ but the name, domain name, trademarks etc were not available. White denotes knowledge. Our goddess of knowledge and learning ‘Saraswati’ is dressed in white. As all my ventures are essentially about knowledge and learning, so white collar. And White Collar Biker sounds cool and very oxymoronish.

I see White Collar Company to be known as the cradle of new ideas, innovation and creativity in the field of knowledge. A university is next in some years.

Ajay- What are the key learnings that you have learnt in this short period? name some companies in the United States that are similar to your company. What do you think is the market potential of this segment.
Kaustubh-
We are 3 industries – adventure tourism, corporate training and hr advisory. While in the first and the last there are people doing nearly the same thing (I would not say exactly, because we do have our USPs) in corporate training – White Collar Company is the only company in the world conducting management training through motorcycles

With innovation and RoI being extremely important in training, the market potential is huge. In adventure tourism also the potential is great as we are waking upto it. In consultancy as we operate in SME space, the potential again is very large.

It has been a short period to have big learning, but I have been applying learning I had in my previous jobs to this like vendor management, marketing channel management, etc. But yes, I learnt the art of hard bargain and negotiations during this short period.

Ajay- Is an MBA (IIM or Otherwise) necessary for success. Comments please.
Kaustubh-Ajay, your question here says success. Before answering this question, I would first differentiate between 2 successes we are talking about. Success in corporate life is different from success as a entrepreneur.

For being successful as a corporate executive, MBA to a certain extent is good. It gives you certain kind of thought processes and also a platform for future success.

However, if we talk of a successful entrepreneur, I personally do not think MBA will matter much. In fact I often talk of the ‘1st of the month’ syndrome – this is the comfort of getting a handsome amount deposited as your salary every month. When you get into that comfort zone, it becomes very hard to come out. Larger the amount, harder it gets. For a successful entrepreneur – perseverance, self belief, ability of trust and ability to take risk is very important. I doubt if any MBA is going to give you that. The very same thought processes, way of thinking that help you succeed in corporate life, need to be challenged as an entrepreneur.

Ajay- Whats your vision for your web site. Which website is a good analogy for it? Why should anyone visit the website?

Kaustubh- I am not a technical person, but having said that, I see my website to be the focal point of my business. I myself built my website using widgets, etc and going forward all my business will happen from the site. By 2010, we will put a strong CRM and PRM on the website, thus enabling all business processes to be routed through the website. Like I said, I am not a techie, but I think Web 2.0, participative nature of the internet and cloud computing are going to help me save and optimize. We already have an online chat built in site, any customer can come and get more details about our programs.

Going forward, customers will be able to do bookings themselves on the site. Vendors will be able to log in do all necessary business through website and we plan to implement SFA for our employees. I believe this answers the vision and why should anyone visit my site.

Ajay-What is your favorite incident in this short period of your startup. What were the key learnings. Are you seeking venture capital funds.

Kaustubh- For customers, I thought the typical profile that will come will be young males, I was delighted when a female became our first customer. We have tweaked our marketing strategy and positioning after that.

At this stage my baby is too young and fragile. If I give her crutches to walk, she will never be able to stand up herself and be counted. So while we will go for external funding at some point of time, that time is not now. With our kind of business model, right now we are not ready for the interference of a venture capitalist.

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So if you always wanted to travel to India and have an adventure as well contact Kaustubh at http://www.wccindia.com/rider/R_kaustubh.html and he will show you to be a White Rider too.

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Read more about his company here – http://www.wccindia.com/rider/whywhite.html

Strategic Tactics in Sanskrit/Hinduism

A representation of the Lion Capital of Ashoka...
Image via Wikipedia

I have used the word Hinduism in the title tag, but it may be interchangeably used by the word India. Hinduism remains the world’s only religion without a founder and also with the maximum number of Gods including gods of Nature, and was in existence long before the Egyptians, and Romans came and died. Most people end up taking the religion they were born into, without knowing what it means- Hinduism is a melting pot and a philosophy.

It has nothing in common with the people who try and market it for profit.

Here are some techniques for Strategy in Sanskrit

1) Sam ( Pronounced as Saahm) – Praise someone to gain their favor.

“Excellent Job”- Terrific- Wow

2) Dam ( Pronounced as Daahm)

Offer money to baser monetary instincts

3) Dand ( Pronounced as Dund)

Punish the person by denying him what he thinks he deserves.

4) Bhed ( Pronounced as Bhaid)

Provoke the target’s jealousy and envy by praising someone else in his presence or ignoring him.

The definitive manuscript for strategy was written by Kautilya and here is a paper from a University that refers to it-

http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/9962/1/MPRA_paper_9962.pdf

Other counterparts are Machievelli in Italy, Clausewitz and the concise Art of War by Tzu Su of the other great civilization China.

Indian Crabs – A story

Taj Mahal, Agra, India.
Image via Wikipedia

I heard the following story /parable as a child. I don’t know who is the author. It may be someone you know like most jokes it is more widespread than the author. If you already have heard it ,let me know it.

There was once a crab competition for all countries in the world.All countries sent their crabs to compete. Then someone noticed that the stall from India had a huge box, but it was open. There was no lid for it to keep the crabs in. So people asked the man standing there  Why is there no lid for these crabs. They may escape and spread here and there. The man replied , These are Indian crabs. They don’t need a lid. They are too busy pulling each other down.They wont escape.