PAWCON -This week in London

Watch out for the twitter hash news on PAWCON and the exciting agenda lined up. If your in the City- you may want to just drop in

http://www.predictiveanalyticsworld.com/london/2010/agenda.php#day1-7

Disclaimer- PAWCON has been a blog partner with Decisionstats (since the first PAWCON ). It is vendor neutral and features open source as well proprietary software, as well case studies from academia and Industry for a balanced view.

 

Little birdie told me some exciting product enhancements may be in the works including a not yet announced R plugin 😉 and the latest SAS product using embedded analytics and Dr Elder’s full day data mining workshop.

Citation-

http://www.predictiveanalyticsworld.com/london/2010/agenda.php#day1-7

Monday November 15, 2010
All conference sessions take place in Edward 5-7

8:00am-9:00am

Registration, Coffee and Danish
Room: Albert Suites


9:00am-9:50am

Keynote
Five Ways Predictive Analytics Cuts Enterprise Risk

All business is an exercise in risk management. All organizations would benefit from measuring, tracking and computing risk as a core process, much like insurance companies do.

Predictive analytics does the trick, one customer at a time. This technology is a data-driven means to compute the risk each customer will defect, not respond to an expensive mailer, consume a retention discount even if she were not going to leave in the first place, not be targeted for a telephone solicitation that would have landed a sale, commit fraud, or become a “loss customer” such as a bad debtor or an insurance policy-holder with high claims.

In this keynote session, Dr. Eric Siegel will reveal:

  • Five ways predictive analytics evolves your enterprise to reduce risk
  • Hidden sources of risk across operational functions
  • What every business should learn from insurance companies
  • How advancements have reversed the very meaning of fraud
  • Why “man + machine” teams are greater than the sum of their parts for
  • enterprise decision support

 

Speaker: Eric Siegel, Ph.D., Program Chair, Predictive Analytics World

Top of this page ] [ Agenda overview ]


IBM9:50am-10:10am

Platinum Sponsor Presentation
The Analytical Revolution

The algorithms at the heart of predictive analytics have been around for years – in some cases for decades. But now, as we see predictive analytics move to the mainstream and become a competitive necessity for organisations in all industries, the most crucial challenges are to ensure that results can be delivered to where they can make a direct impact on outcomes and business performance, and that the application of analytics can be scaled to the most demanding enterprise requirements.

This session will look at the obstacles to successfully applying analysis at the enterprise level, and how today’s approaches and technologies can enable the true “industrialisation” of predictive analytics.

Speaker: Colin Shearer, WW Industry Solutions Leader, IBM UK Ltd

Top of this page ] [ Agenda overview ]


Deloitte10:10am-10:20am

Gold Sponsor Presentation
How Predictive Analytics is Driving Business Value

Organisations are increasingly relying on analytics to make key business decisions. Today, technology advances and the increasing need to realise competitive advantage in the market place are driving predictive analytics from the domain of marketers and tactical one-off exercises to the point where analytics are being embedded within core business processes.

During this session, Richard will share some of the focus areas where Deloitte is driving business transformation through predictive analytics, including Workforce, Brand Equity and Reputational Risk, Customer Insight and Network Analytics.

Speaker: Richard Fayers, Senior Manager, Deloitte Analytical Insight

Top of this page ] [ Agenda overview ]


10:20am-10:45am

Break / Exhibits
Room: Albert Suites


10:45am-11:35am
Healthcare
Case Study: Life Line Screening
Taking CRM Global Through Predictive Analytics

While Life Line is successfully executing a US CRM roadmap, they are also beginning this same evolution abroad. They are beginning in the UK where Merkle procured data and built a response model that is pulling responses over 30% higher than competitors. This presentation will give an overview of the US CRM roadmap, and then focus on the beginning of their strategy abroad, focusing on the data procurement they could not get anywhere else but through Merkle and the successful modeling and analytics for the UK.

Speaker: Ozgur Dogan, VP, Quantitative Solutions Group, Merkle Inc.

Speaker: Trish Mathe, Life Line Screening

Top of this page ] [ Agenda overview ]


11:35am-12:25pm
Open Source Analytics; Healthcare
Case Study: A large health care organization
The Rise of Open Source Analytics: Lowering Costs While Improving Patient Care

Rapidminer and R were the number 1 and 2 in this years annual KDNuggets data mining tool usage poll, followed by Knime on place 4 and Weka on place 6. So what’s going on here? Are these open source tools really that good or is their popularity strongly correlated with lower acquisition costs alone? This session answers these questions based on a real world case for a large health care organization and explains the risks & benefits of using open source technology. The final part of the session explains how these tools stack up against their traditional, proprietary counterparts.

Speaker: Jos van Dongen, Associate & Principal, DeltIQ Group

Top of this page ] [ Agenda overview ]


12:25pm-1:25pm

Lunch / Exhibits
Room: Albert Suites


1:25pm-2:15pm
Keynote
Thought Leader:
Case Study: Yahoo! and other large on-line e-businesses
Search Marketing and Predictive Analytics: SEM, SEO and On-line Marketing Case Studies

Search Engine Marketing is a $15B industry in the U.S. growing to double that number over the next 3 years. Worldwide the SEM market was over $50B in 2010. Not only is this a fast growing area of marketing, but it is one that has significant implications for brand and direct marketing and is undergoing rapid change with emerging channels such as mobile and social. What is unique about this area of marketing is a singularly heavy dependence on analytics:

 

  • Large numbers of variables and options
  • Real-time auctions/bids and a need to adjust strategies in real-time
  • Difficult optimization problems on allocating spend across a huge number of keywords
  • Fast-changing competitive terrain and heavy competition on the obvious channels
  • Complicated interactions between various channels and a large choice of search keyword expansion possibilities
  • Profitability and ROI analysis that are complex and often challenging

 

The size of the industry, its growing importance in marketing, its upcoming role in Mobile Advertising, and its uniquely heavy reliance on analytics makes it particularly interesting as an area for predictive analytics applications. In this session, not only will hear about some of the latest strategies and techniques to optimize search, you will hear case studies that illustrate the important role of analytics from industry practitioners.

Speaker: Usama Fayyad, , Ph.D., CEO, Open Insights

Top of this page ] [ Agenda overview ]


SAS2:15pm-2:35pm

Platinum Sponsor Presentation
Creating a Model Factory Using in-Database Analytics

With the ever-increasing number of analytical models required to make fact-based decisions, as well as increasing audit compliance regulations, it is more important than ever that these models can be created, monitored, retuned and deployed as quickly and automatically as possible. This paper, using a case study from a major financial organisation, will show how organisations can build a model factory efficiently using the latest SAS technology that utilizes the power of in-database processing.

Speaker: John Spooner, Analytics Specialist, SAS (UK)

Top of this page ] [ Agenda overview ]


2:35pm-2:45pm

Session Break
Room: Albert Suites


2:45pm-3:35pm

Retail
Case Study: SABMiller
Predictive Analytics & Global Marketing Strategy

Over the last few years SABMiller plc, the second largest brewing company in the world operating in 70 countries, has been systematically segmenting its markets in different countries globally in order optimize their portfolio strategy & align it to their long term country specific growth strategy. This presentation talks about the overall methodology followed and the challenges that had to be overcome both from a technical as well as from a change management stand point in order to successfully implement a standard analytics approach to diverse markets and diverse business positions in a highly global setting.

The session explains how country specific growth strategies were converted to objective variables and consumption occasion segments were created that differentiated the market effectively by their growth potential. In addition to this the presentation will also provide a discussion on issues like:

  • The dilemmas of static vs. dynamic solutions and standardization vs. adaptable solutions
  • Challenges in acceptability, local capability development, overcoming implementation inertia, cost effectiveness, etc
  • The role that business partners at SAB and analytics service partners at AbsolutData together play in providing impactful and actionable solutions

 

Speaker: Anne Stephens, SABMiller plc

Speaker: Titir Pal, AbsolutData

Top of this page ] [ Agenda overview ]


3:35pm-4:25pm

Retail
Case Study: Overtoom Belgium
Increasing Marketing Relevance Through Personalized Targeting

 

Since many years, Overtoom Belgium – a leading B2B retailer and division of the French Manutan group – focuses on an extensive use of CRM. In this presentation, we demonstrate how Overtoom has integrated Predictive Analytics to optimize customer relationships. In this process, they employ analytics to develop answers to the key question: “which product should we offer to which customer via which channel”. We show how Overtoom gained a 10% revenue increase by replacing the existing segmentation scheme with accurate predictive response models. Additionally, we illustrate how Overtoom succeeds to deliver more relevant communications by offering personalized promotional content to every single customer, and how these personalized offers positively impact Overtoom’s conversion rates.

Speaker: Dr. Geert Verstraeten, Python Predictions

Top of this page ] [ Agenda overview ]


4:25pm-4:50pm

Break / Exhibits
Room: Albert Suites


4:50pm-5:40pm
Uplift Modelling:
Case Study: Lloyds TSB General Insurance & US Bank
Uplift Modelling: You Should Not Only Measure But Model Incremental Response

Most marketing analysts understand that measuring the impact of a marketing campaign requires a valid control group so that uplift (incremental response) can be reported. However, it is much less widely understood that the targeting models used almost everywhere do not attempt to optimize that incremental measure. That requires an uplift model.

This session will explain why a switch to uplift modelling is needed, illustrate what can and does go wrong when they are not used and the hugely positive impact they can have when used effectively. It will also discuss a range of approaches to building and assessing uplift models, from simple basic adjustments to existing modelling processes through to full-blown uplift modelling.

The talk will use Lloyds TSB General Insurance & US Bank as a case study and also illustrate real-world results from other companies and sectors.

 

Speaker: Nicholas Radcliffe, Founder and Director, Stochastic Solutions

Top of this page ] [ Agenda overview ]


5:40pm-6:30pm

Consumer services
Case Study: Canadian Automobile Association and other B2C examples
The Diminishing Marginal Returns of Variable Creation in Predictive Analytics Solutions

 

Variable Creation is the key to success in any predictive analytics exercise. Many different approaches are adopted during this process, yet there are diminishing marginal returns as the number of variables increase. Our organization conducted a case study on four existing clients to explore this so-called diminishing impact of variable creation on predictive analytics solutions. Existing predictive analytics solutions were built using our traditional variable creation process. Yet, presuming that we could exponentially increase the number of variables, we wanted to determine if this added significant benefit to the existing solution.

Speaker: Richard Boire, BoireFillerGroup

Top of this page ] [ Agenda overview ]


6:30pm-7:30pm

Reception / Exhibits
Room: Albert Suites


Tuesday November 16, 2010
All conference sessions take place in Edward 5-7

8:00am-9:00am

Registration, Coffee and Danish
Room: Albert Suites


9:00am-9:55am
Keynote
Multiple Case Studies: Anheuser-Busch, Disney, HP, HSBC, Pfizer, and others
The High ROI of Data Mining for Innovative Organizations

Data mining and advanced analytics can enhance your bottom line in three basic ways, by 1) streamlining a process, 2) eliminating the bad, or 3) highlighting the good. In rare situations, a fourth way – creating something new – is possible. But modern organizations are so effective at their core tasks that data mining usually results in an iterative, rather than transformative, improvement. Still, the impact can be dramatic.

Dr. Elder will share the story (problem, solution, and effect) of nine projects conducted over the last decade for some of America’s most innovative agencies and corporations:

    Streamline:

  • Cross-selling for HSBC
  • Image recognition for Anheuser-Busch
  • Biometric identification for Lumidigm (for Disney)
  • Optimal decisioning for Peregrine Systems (now part of Hewlett-Packard)
  • Quick decisions for the Social Security Administration
    Eliminate Bad:

  • Tax fraud detection for the IRS
  • Warranty Fraud detection for Hewlett-Packard
    Highlight Good:

  • Sector trading for WestWind Foundation
  • Drug efficacy discovery for Pharmacia & UpJohn (now Pfizer)

Moderator: Eric Siegel, Program Chair, Predictive Analytics World

Speaker: John Elder, Ph.D., Elder Research, Inc.

Also see Dr. Elder’s full-day workshop

 

Top of this page ] [ Agenda overview ]


9:55am-10:30am

Break / Exhibits
Room: Albert Suites


10:30am-11:20am
Telecommunications
Case Study: Leading Telecommunications Operator
Predictive Analytics and Efficient Fact-based Marketing

The presentation describes what are the major topics and issues when you introduce predictive analytics and how to build a Fact-Based marketing environment. The introduced tools and methodologies proved to be highly efficient in terms of improving the overall direct marketing activity and customer contact operations for the involved companies. Generally, the introduced approaches have great potential for organizations with large customer bases like Mobile Operators, Internet Giants, Media Companies, or Retail Chains.

Main Introduced Solutions:-Automated Serial Production of Predictive Models for Campaign Targeting-Automated Campaign Measurements and Tracking Solutions-Precise Product Added Value Evaluation.

Speaker: Tamer Keshi, Ph.D., Long-term contractor, T-Mobile

Speaker: Beata Kovacs, International Head of CRM Solutions, Deutsche Telekom

Top of this page ] [ Agenda overview ]


11:20am-11:25am

Session Changeover


11:25am-12:15pm
Thought Leader
Nine Laws of Data Mining

Data mining is the predictive core of predictive analytics, a business process that finds useful patterns in data through the use of business knowledge. The industry standard CRISP-DM methodology describes the process, but does not explain why the process takes the form that it does. I present nine “laws of data mining”, useful maxims for data miners, with explanations that reveal the reasons behind the surface properties of the data mining process. The nine laws have implications for predictive analytics applications: how and why it works so well, which ambitions could succeed, and which must fail.

 

Speaker: Tom Khabaza, khabaza.com

 

Top of this page ] [ Agenda overview ]


12:15pm-1:30pm

Lunch / Exhibits
Room: Albert Suites


1:30pm-2:25pm
Expert Panel: Kaboom! Predictive Analytics Hits the Mainstream

Predictive analytics has taken off, across industry sectors and across applications in marketing, fraud detection, credit scoring and beyond. Where exactly are we in the process of crossing the chasm toward pervasive deployment, and how can we ensure progress keeps up the pace and stays on target?

This expert panel will address:

  • How much of predictive analytics’ potential has been fully realized?
  • Where are the outstanding opportunities with greatest potential?
  • What are the greatest challenges faced by the industry in achieving wide scale adoption?
  • How are these challenges best overcome?

 

Panelist: John Elder, Ph.D., Elder Research, Inc.

Panelist: Colin Shearer, WW Industry Solutions Leader, IBM UK Ltd

Panelist: Udo Sglavo, Global Analytic Solutions Manager, SAS

Panel moderator: Eric Siegel, Ph.D., Program Chair, Predictive Analytics World


2:25pm-2:30pm

Session Changeover


2:30pm-3:20pm
Crowdsourcing Data Mining
Case Study: University of Melbourne, Chessmetrics
Prediction Competitions: Far More Than Just a Bit of Fun

Data modelling competitions allow companies and researchers to post a problem and have it scrutinised by the world’s best data scientists. There are an infinite number of techniques that can be applied to any modelling task but it is impossible to know at the outset which will be most effective. By exposing the problem to a wide audience, competitions are a cost effective way to reach the frontier of what is possible from a given dataset. The power of competitions is neatly illustrated by the results of a recent bioinformatics competition hosted by Kaggle. It required participants to pick markers in HIV’s genetic sequence that coincide with changes in the severity of infection. Within a week and a half, the best entry had already outdone the best methods in the scientific literature. This presentation will cover how competitions typically work, some case studies and the types of business modelling challenges that the Kaggle platform can address.

Speaker: Anthony Goldbloom, Kaggle Pty Ltd

Top of this page ] [ Agenda overview ]


3:20pm-3:50pm

Breaks /Exhibits
Room: Albert Suites


3:50pm-4:40pm
Human Resources; e-Commerce
Case Study: Naukri.com, Jeevansathi.com
Increasing Marketing ROI and Efficiency of Candidate-Search with Predictive Analytics

InfoEdge, India’s largest and most profitable online firm with a bouquet of internet properties has been Google’s biggest customer in India. Our team used predictive modeling to double our profits across multiple fronts. For Naukri.com, India’s number 1 job portal, predictive models target jobseekers most relevant to the recruiter. Analytical insights provided a deeper understanding of recruiter behaviour and informed a redesign of this product’s recruiter search functionality. This session will describe how we did it, and also reveal how Jeevansathi.com, India’s 2nd-largest matrimony portal, targets the acquisition of consumers in the market for marriage.

 

Speaker: Suvomoy Sarkar, Chief Analytics Officer, HT Media & Info Edge India (parent company of the two companies above)

 

Top of this page ] [ Agenda overview ]


4:40pm-5:00pm
Closing Remarks

Speaker: Eric Siegel, Ph.D., Program Chair, Predictive Analytics World

Top of this page ] [ Agenda overview ]


Wednesday November 17, 2010

Full-day Workshop
The Best and the Worst of Predictive Analytics:
Predictive Modeling Methods and Common Data Mining Mistakes

Click here for the detailed workshop description

  • Workshop starts at 9:00am
  • First AM Break from 10:00 – 10:15
  • Second AM Break from 11:15 – 11:30
  • Lunch from 12:30 – 1:15pm
  • First PM Break: 2:00 – 2:15
  • Second PM Break: 3:15 – 3:30
  • Workshop ends at 4:30pm

Speaker: John Elder, Ph.D., CEO and Founder, Elder Research, Inc.

 

Bruno Aziza, Microsoft Global BI Lead joins PAW Keynote

By Richard Wheeler (Zephyris) 2007. Lambda rep...
Image via Wikipedia

 

An interesting development, Bruno Aziza, Director, Worldwide Strategy Lead, Business Intelligence, Microsoft has joined Predictive Analytics World as a keynote speaker.

http://www.predictiveanalyticsworld.com/dc/2010/agenda.php#day2-2

Keynote
Predictive Analytics and Business Performance

In this session, Bruno Aziza will discuss the challenges organizations face with Analytics and Performance. This participative session will provide first-hand accounts from Fortune 500 companies who are winning by building accountability, intelligence, and informed decision-making into their organizational DNA.

Speaker: Bruno Aziza, Director, Worldwide Strategy Lead, Business Intelligence, Microsoft

Some info about Mr Aziza,

http://www.predictiveanalyticsworld.com/dc/2010/speakers.php#aziza

Bruno Aziza, Director, Worldwide Strategy Lead, Business Intelligence,Microsoft

Bruno AzizaBruno Aziza is a recognized authority on Strategy Execution, Business Intelligence and Information Management. He is the co-author of best-selling book, “Drive Business Performance: Enabling a Culture of Intelligent Execution” and a Fellow at the Advanced Performance Institute, a world-leading and independent advisory group specialized in organizational performance. Drs. Kaplan & Norton, of Balanced Scorecard fame, praise Aziza for moving “the field of performance management forward in important new directions.”

Aziza’s work has been featured in publications across North America, Europe and Asia such as Business Finance magazine, Intelligent Enterprise, CRM magazine and others.

Aziza has held management positions at Apple Inc.Business Objects (SAP), AppStream(Symantec) and Decathlon SA. He currently works on Microsoft Business Intelligence go-to-market strategy and execution for partners, services, sales and marketing. Aziza lives in Seattle with his family and enjoys sports and travelling.

He regularly provides views on leadership and performance on the SuccessFactors thought leader Network , the CIO Network and Forbes Magazine. Aziza is the host ofBizIntelligence.TV – a leading weekly show on Business Intelligence and Analytics. An award-winning speaker, Aziza frequently keynotes international events and has shared the stage with executives and thought leaders such as Dr. Kaplan. Aziza’s biggest crowd to date is 5,000 people.

Follow or contact Bruno via:
•Twitter @ http://twitter.com/brunoaziza
•Facebook @ http://tinyurl.com/bruno-on-facebook
•Linkedin @ http://www.linkedin.com/in/brunoaziza
•YouTube @ http://tinyurl.com/bruno-on-tv
•Kindle blog @ http://tinyurl.com/culture-blog
•Forbes blog @ http://tinyurl.com/culture-blog

That makes it an interesting Pow Wow between the big players at the conference Oracle,SAP, IBM, SAS and now MS –all seem to be there.

Truly a Predictive Analytics World.

 

Interview Michael J. A. Berry Data Miners, Inc

Here is an interview with noted Data Mining practitioner Michael Berry, author of seminal books in data mining, noted trainer and consultantmjab picture

Ajay- Your famous book “Data Mining Techniques: For Marketing, Sales, and Customer Relationship Management” came out in 2004, and an update is being planned for 2011. What are the various new data mining techniques and their application that you intend to talk about in that book.

Michael- Each time we do a revision, it feels like writing a whole new book. The first edition came out in 1997 and it is hard to believe how much the world has changed since then. I’m currently spending most of my time in the on-line retailing world. The things I worry about today–improving recommendations for cross-sell and up-sell,and search engine optimization–wouldn’t have even made sense to me back then. And the data sizes that are routine today were beyond the capacity of the most powerful super computers of the nineties. But, if possible, Gordon and I have changed even more than the data mining landscape. What has changed us is experience. We learned an awful lot between the first and second editions, and I think we’ve learned even more between the second and third.

One consequence is that we now have to discipline ourselves to avoid making the book too heavy to lift. For the first edition, we could write everything we knew (and arguably, a bit more!); now we have to remind ourselves that our intended audience is still the same–intelligent laymen with a practical interest in getting more information out of data. Not statisticians. Not computer scientists. Not academic researchers. Although we welcome all readers, we are primarily writing for someone who works in a marketing department and has a title with the word “analyst” or “analytics” in it. We have relaxed our “no equations” rule slightly for cases when the equations really do make things easier to explain, but the core explanations are still in words and pictures.

The third edition completes a transition that was already happening in the second edition. We have fully embraced standard statistical modeling techniques as full-fledged components of the data miner’s toolkit. In the first edition, it seemed important to make a distinction between old, dull, statistics, and new, cool, data mining. By the second edition, we realized that didn’t really make sense, but remnants of that attitude persisted. The third edition rectifies this. There is a chapter on statistical modeling techniques that explains linear and logistic regression, naive Bayes models, and more. There is also a brand new chapter on text mining, a curious omission from previous editions.

There is also a lot more material on data preparation. Three whole chapters are devoted to various aspects of data preparation. The first focuses on creating customer signatures. The second is focused on using derived variables to bring information to the surface, and the third deals with data reduction techniques such as principal components. Since this is where we spend the greatest part of our time in our work, it seemed important to spend more time on these subjects in the book as well.

Some of the chapters have been beefed up a bit. The neural network chapter now includes radial basis functions in addition to multi-layer perceptrons. The clustering chapter has been split into two chapters to accommodate new material on soft clustering, self-organizing maps, and more. The survival analysis chapter is much improved and includes material on some of our recent application of survival analysis methods to forecasting. The genetic algorithms chapter now includes a discussion of swarm intelligence.

Ajay- Describe your early career and how you came into Data Mining as a profession. What do you think of various universities now offering MS in Analytics. How do you balance your own teaching experience with your consulting projects at The Data Miners.

Michael- I fell into data mining quite by accident. I guess I always had a latent interest in the topic. As a high school and college student, I was a fan of Martin Gardner‘s mathematical games in in Scientific American. One of my favorite things he wrote about was a game called New Eleusis in which one players, God, makes up a rule to govern how cards can be played (“an even card must be followed by a red card”, say) and the other players have to figure out the rule by watching what plays are allowed by God and which ones are rejected. Just for my own amusement, I wrote a computer program to play the game and presented it at the IJCAI conference in, I think, 1981.

That paper became a chapter in a book on computer game playing–so my first book was about finding patterns in data. Aside from that, my interest in finding patterns in data lay dormant for years. At Thinking Machines, I was in the compiler group. In particular, I was responsible for the run-time system of the first Fortran Compiler for the CM-2 and I represented Thinking Machines at the Fortran 8X (later Fortran-90) standards meetings.

What changed my direction was that Thinking Machines got an export license to sell our first machine overseas. The machine went to a research lab just outside of Paris. The connection machine was so hard to program, that if you bought one, you got an applications engineer to go along with it. None of the applications engineers wanted to go live in Paris for a few months, but I did.

Paris was a lot of fun, and so, I discovered, was actually working on applications. When I came back to the states, I stuck with that applied focus and my next assignment was to spend a couple of years at Epsilon, (then a subsidiary of American Express) working on a database marketing system that stored all the “records of charge” for American Express card members. The purpose of the system was to pick ads to go in the billing envelope. I also worked on some more general purpose data mining software for the CM-5.

When Thinking Machines folded, I had the opportunity to open a Cambridge office for a Virginia-based consulting company called MRJ that had been a major channel for placing Connection Machines in various government agencies. The new group at MRJ was focused on data mining applications in the commercial market. At least, that was the idea. It turned out that they were more interested in data warehousing projects, so after a while we parted company.

That led to the formation of Data Miners. My two partners in Data Miners, Gordon Linoff and Brij Masand, share the Thinking Machines background.

To tell the truth, I really don’t know much about the university programs in data mining that have started to crop up. I’ve visited the one at NC State, but not any of the others.

I myself teach a class in “Marketing Analytics” at the Carroll School of Management at Boston College. It is an elective part of the MBA program there. I also teach short classes for corporations on their sites and at various conferences.

Ajay- At the previous Predictive Analytics World, you took a session on Forecasting and Predicting Subsciber levels (http://www.predictiveanalyticsworld.com/dc/2009/agenda.php#day2-6) .

It seems inability to forecast is a problem many many companies face today. What do you think are the top 5 principles of business forecasting which companies need to follow.

Michael- I don’t think I can come up with five. Our approach to forecasting is essentially simulation. We try to model the underlying processes and then turn the crank to see what happens. If there is a principal behind that, I guess it is to approach a forecast from the bottom up rather than treating aggregate numbers as a time series.

Ajay- You often partner your talks with SAS Institute, and your blog at http://blog.data-miners.com/ sometimes contain SAS code as well. What particular features of the SAS software do you like. Do you use just the Enterprise Miner or other modules as well for Survival Analysis or Forecasting.

Michael- Our first data mining class used SGI’s Mineset for the hands-on examples. Later we developed versions using Clementine, Quadstone, and SAS Enterprise Miner. Then, market forces took hold. We don’t market our classes ourselves, we depend on others to market them and then share in the revenue.

SAS turned out to be much better at marketing our classes than the other companies, so over time we stopped updating the other versions. An odd thing about our relationship with SAS is that it is only with the education group. They let us use Enterprise Miner to develop course materials, but we are explicitly forbidden to use it in our consulting work. As a consequence, we don’t use it much outside of the classroom.

Ajay- Also any other software you use (apart from SQL and J)

Michael- We try to fit in with whatever environment our client has set up. That almost always is SQL-based (Teradata, Oracle, SQL Server, . . .). Often SAS Stat is also available and sometimes Enterprise Miner.

We run into SPSS, Statistica, Angoss, and other tools as well. We tend to work in big data environments so we’ve also had occasion to use Ab Initio and, more recently, Hadoop. I expect to be seeing more of that.

Biography-

Together with his colleague, Gordon Linoff, Michael Berry is author of some of the most widely read and respected books on data mining. These best sellers in the field have been translated into many languages. Michael is an active practitioner of data mining. His books reflect many years of practical, hands-on experience down in the data mines.

Data Mining Techniques cover

Data Mining Techniques for Marketing, Sales and Customer Relationship Management

by Michael J. A. Berry and Gordon S. Linoff
copyright 2004 by John Wiley & Sons
ISB

Mining the Web cover

Mining the Web

by Michael J.A. Berry and Gordon S. Linoff
copyright 2002 by John Wiley & Sons
ISBN 0-471-41609-6

Non-English editions available in Traditional Chinese and Simplified Chinese

This book looks at the new opportunities and challenges for data mining that have been created by the web. The book demonstrates how to apply data mining to specific types of online businesses, such as auction sites, B2B trading exchanges, click-and-mortar retailers, subscription sites, and online retailers of digital content.

Mastering Data Mining

by Michael J.A. Berry and Gordon S. Linoff
copyright 2000 by John Wiley & Sons
ISBN 0-471-33123-6

Non-English editions available in JapaneseItalianTraditional Chinese , and Simplified Chinese

A case study-based guide to applying data mining techniques for solving practical business problems. These “warts and all” case studies are drawn directly from consulting engagements performed by the authors.

A data mining educator as well as a consultant, Michael is in demand as a keynote speaker and seminar leader in the area of data mining generally and the application of data mining to customer relationship management in particular.

Prior to founding Data Miners in December, 1997, Michael spent 8 years at Thinking Machines Corporation. There he specialized in the application of massively parallel supercomputing techniques to business and marketing applications, including one of the largest database marketing systems of the time.

September Roundup by Revolution

From the monthly newsletter- which I consider quite useful for keeping updated on application of R

——————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————–

Revolution News
Every month, we’ll bring you the latest news about Revolution’s products and events in this section.
Follow us on Twitter at @RevolutionR for up-to-the-minute news and updates from Revolution Analytics!

Revolution R Enterprise 4.0 for Windows now available. Based on the latest R 2.11.1 and including the RevoScaleR package for big-data analysis in R, Revolution R Enterprise is now available for download for Windows 32-bit and 64-bit systems. Click here to subscribe, or available free to academia.

New! Integrate R with web applications, BI dashboards and more with web services. RevoDeployR is a new Web Services framework that integrates dynamic R-based computations into applications for business users. It will be available September 30 with Revolution R Enterprise Server on RHEL 5. Click here to learn more.

Free Webinar, September 22: In a joint webinar from Revolution Analytics and Jaspersoft, learn how to use RevoDeployR to integrate advanced analytics on-demand in applications, BI dashboards, and on the web. Register here.

Revolution in the News:
SearchBusinessAnalytics.com previews the forthcoming Revolution R GUI; Channel Register introduces RevoDeployR, while IT Business Edge shows off the Web Services architecture; and ReadWriteWeb.com looks at how RevoScaleR tackles the Big Data explosion.

Inside-R: A new site for the R Community. At www.inside-R.org you’ll find the latest information about R from around the Web, searchable R documentation and packages, hints and tips about R, and more. You can even add a “Download R” badge to your own web-page to help spread the word about R.

R News, Tips and Tricks from the Revolutions blog
The Revolutions blog brings you daily news and tips about R, statistics and open source. Here are some highlights from Revolutions from the past month
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R’s key role in the oil spill response: Read how NIST’s Division Chief of Statistical Engineering used R to provide critical analysis in real time to the Secretaries of Energy and the Interior, and helped coordinate the government’s response.

Animating data with R and Google Earth: Learn how to use R to create animated visualizations of geographical data with Google Earth, such as this video showing how tuna migrations intersect with the location of the Gulf oil spill.

Are baseball games getting longer? Or is it just Red Sox games? Ryan Elmore uses nonparametric regression in R to find out.

Keynote presentations from useR! 2010: the worldwide R user’s conference was a great success, and there’s a wealth of useful tips and information in the presentations. Video of the keynote presentations are available too: check out in particular Frank Harrell’s talk Information Allergy, and Friedrich Leisch’s talk on reproducible statistical research.

Looking for more R tips and tricks? Check out the monthly round-ups at the Revolutions blog.

Upcoming Events
Every month, we’ll highlight some upcoming events from R Community Calendar.

September 23: The San Diego R User Group has a meetup on BioConductor and microarray data analysis.

September 28: The Sydney Users of R Forum has a meetup on building world-class predictive models in R (with dinner to follow).

September 28: The Los Angeles R User Group presents an introduction to statistical finance with R.

September 28: The Seattle R User Group meets to discuss, “What are you doing with R?”

September 29: The Raleigh-Durham-Chapel Hill R Users Group has its first meeting.

October 7: The NYC R User Group features a presentation by Prof. Andrew Gelman.

There are also new R user groups in SingaporeSeoulDenverBrisbane, and New Jersey.  Please let us know if we’re missing your R user group, or if want to get a new one started.

———————————————————————————————-Editor

David Smith, VP Marketing
david@revolutionanalytics.com
Twitter: @revodavid

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