Category: Analytics

Forecasting World Events Team

a large and diverse panel of forecasters, including substantial representation from government, academia, “think tanks,” and industry. Here are a few other details concerning your fellow participants:
  • At this time, over 600 people are being invited to participate. Please note that we expect that new participants will be joining the panel on a rolling basis for years to come.
  • Around 85% of these 600+ participants have at least a Bachelor’s degree, and over 60% of them have advanced degrees.
  • In terms of background training, participants represent a range of academic fields. Around 40% report a Social-Behavioral Science background, but there is also significant representation from those with backgrounds in Business (15%), the Humanities (13%), Engineering (12%), and the Natural Sciences (10%), among others.
  • The average participant age is 43 years-old, with a standard deviation of 15 years.
  • The panel’s gender composition is 75% men / 25% women, and this closely mirrors the gender ratio for all FWE registrants.
  • In addition to participation from individuals overseas, we are pleased to have eligible participants representing 44 of the 50 United States.
We are currently scheduled to begin the core forecasting study in late summer, a few months later than we initially anticipated. In the meantime, we will be readying our web-based forecasting environment and assembling our initial set of forecasting questions. As our formal launch date approaches, we will be contacting you with a link to the forecasting website and any other information you’ll need to get started. Between now and then we may reach out to you with other related announcements.
Finally, registration remains open, and we encourage you to “spread the word” by sharing our registration homepage link with your friends and colleagues.
Thanks once again for your interest in Forecasting World Events. We look forward to you joining us this summer.
Sincerely,
The Forecasting World Events Team
E-mail is not a secure form of communication.

The confidentiality of this message cannot be guaranteed.

ps- above message was from this new contest. Enter at your initiative. Buyer Beware!.

Heritage prize= 3mill now open

I am still angry with THE netflix for 1 mill I lost out. No sweat! this time the money is 3 times as much, it is legit, and yes baby you can change the world, make it a better place and get rich.! see details below-http://www.heritagehealthprize.com/c/hhp/Data

HERITAGE HEALTH PRIZE DATA FILES

You must accept this competition’s rules before you’ll be able to download data files.

IMPORTANT NOTE: The information provided below is intended only to provide general guidance to participants in the Heritage Health Prize Competition and is subject to the Competition Official Rules. Any capitalized term not defined below is defined in the Competition Official Rules. Please consult the Competition Official Rules for complete details.

Heritage Provider Network is providing Competition Entrants with deidentified member data collected during a forty-eight month period that is allocated among three data sets (the “Data Sets”). Competition Entrants will use the Data Sets to develop and test their algorithms for accurately predicting the number of days that the members will spend in a hospital (inpatient or emergency room visit) during the 12-month period following the Data Set cut-off date.

HHP_release2.zip contains the latest files, so you can ignore HHP_release1.zip. SampleEntry.CSV shows you how an entry should look.

Data Sets will be released to Entrants after registration on the Website according to the following schedule:

April 4, 2011 Claims Table – Y1 and DaysInHospital Table – Y2

May 4, 2011

 All other Data Sets except Labs Table and Rx Table

From https://www.kaggle.com/

The $3 million Heritage Health Prize opens to entries

It’s been one month since the launch of the Heritage Health Prize. The prize has attracted some great publicity, receiving coverage from the Wall Street Journal, The Economist, Slate andForbes.

By now, people have had a good chance to poke around the first portion of the data. Now the fun starts! HPN have released two more years’-worth of data, set the accuracy threshold and are opening up the competition to entries. The data are available from the Heritage Health Prize page. Good luck to all participants!

The Deloitte/FIDE Chess Ratings Competition results

The Deloitte/FIDE Chess Ratings Competition attracted one of the strongest fields ever seen in a Kaggle Competition. The competition attracted 189 teams, ranging from chess ratings  experts to Netflix Prize winners. As Jeff Sonas wrote on the Kaggle blog last week, the  competition has far exceeded his expectations. A big congratulations the provisional winner, Tim Salimans, an econometrician at Erasmus University in Rotterdam. We look forward to reading about the approaches used by top performers on the Kaggle blog. We also look forward to the results of the FIDE prize, which could see the introduction of a new chess ratings system.

ICDAR 2011 Competition Results

The ICDAR 2011 competition also finished recently. The competiiton required participants to develop an algorithm that correctly matched handwriting samples. The winners were Lewis Griffin and Andrew Newell from the University College London who achieved Kaggle’s first ever perfect score by managing to match every sample correctly! Andrew and Lewis have posted a description of their winning method on the Kaggle blog.

Revolution R Enterprise

Since R is the most popular language used by Kaggle members, the Revolution Analytics team is making Revolution R Enterprise (the pre-eminent commercial version of R) available free of charge to Kaggle members. Revolution R Enterprise has several advantages over standard R, including the ability to seemlessly handle larger datasets. To get your free copy, visit http://info.revolutionanalytics.com/Kaggle.html.
Kaggle-in-Class

As many of you know, Kaggle offers a free platform, Kaggle-in-Class, for instructors who want to host competitions for their students. For those interested in hearing more about the use of Kaggle-in-Class as a teaching tool, Susan Holmes and Nelson Ray from Stanford University share their experience in a webinar organized by the Consortium for the Advancement of Undergraduate Statistics Education.

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Google Storage for Developers goes into Enterprise Mode

Schematic representation of the SSL handshake ...
Image via Wikipedia

To help unify and uniform, collobrative work and data management and business models across the enterprise in secure SSL cloud environments- Google Storage has been rolling out some changes (read below)-this also gives you more options on the day Amazon goes ahem down (cough cough) because they didn’t think someone in their data environment could be sympathetic to free data.

——————————————————————————————————————————————————————–

https://groups.google.com/group/gs-announce

And now to the actual update.

We’re making some changes to Google Storage for Developers to make team-based development easier. As part of this work, we are introducing the concept of a project. In preparation for this feature, we will be creating projects for every user and migrating their buckets to it.

What does this mean for you?

Everything will continue to work as it always has. However, you will notice that if you perform a get-acl operation on any of your buckets, you will see extra ACL entries. These entries correspond to project groups. Each group has only one member – the person who owned the buckets before the bucket migration;  no additional rights have been granted to any of your buckets or objects. You should preserve these new ACL grants if you modify bucket ACLs.

An example entry for a modified ACL would look like this:

We’ll be rolling out these changes over the next few days,

http://blog.cloudberrylab.com/2011/04/cloudberry-explorer-for-google-storage.html

Detailed Note on GS-

https://code.google.com/apis/storage/

Google Storage for Developers is a RESTful service for storing and accessing your data on Google’s infrastructure. The service combines the performance and scalability of Google’s cloud with advanced security and sharing capabilities. Highlights include:

Fast, scalable, highly available object store

  • All data replicated to multiple U.S. data centers
  • Read-your-writes data consistency
  • Objects of hundreds of gigabytes in size per request with range-get support
  • Domain-scoped bucket namespace

Easy, flexible authentication and sharing

  • Key-based authentication
  • Authenticated downloads from a web browser
  • Individual- and group-level access controls

In addition, Google Storage for Developers offers a web-based interface for managing your storage and GSUtil, an open source command line tool and library. The service is also compatible with many existing cloud storage tools and libraries. With pay-as-you-go pricing, it’s easy to get started and scale as your needs grow.

Google Storage for Developers is currently only available to a limited number of developers. Please sign up to join the waiting list.

Google Chrome- Unites All Blog Readers across the world

D'où vient le logo de Google Chrome ?
Image by Emilie Ogez via Flickr

ever wondered what Pakistani blogs are saying about UBL. What Libyan bloggers go through to send you a piece.

Dont trust Ne-ew York Times or Fox-y News and /or both.

Read directly using breakthrough machine learning algorithms.

The Boys in Stanford and friends – bring Google Chrome Languages-

Now available at 0 cost. No viruses. Just annoying ads. Superbowl style.

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Lovely forecasting blog

Eight different random walks.
Image via Wikipedia

I really loved this simple, smart and yet elegant explanation of forecasting. even a high school quarterback could understand it, and maybe get a internship job building and running and re running code for Mars shot.

Despite my plea that you remain svelte in real life, I implore you to be naïve in business forecasting – and use a naïve forecasting model early and often. A naïve forecasting model is the most important model you will ever use in business forecasting.

and now the killer line

Purists may argue that the only true naïve forecast is the “no-change” forecast, meaning either a random walk (forecast = last known actual) or a seasonal random walk (e.g. forecast = actual from corresponding period last year). These are referred to as NF1 and NF2 in the Makridakis text (where NF = Naïve Forecast). In our 2006 SAS webseries Finding Flaws in Forecasting, an attendee asked “What about using a simple time series forecast with no intervention as the naïve forecast?” Is that allowed?

i did write a blog article on forecasting some time back, but back then I was a little blogger, with the website name being http://iwannacrib.com

great work in helping make forecasting easier to understand for people who have flower shops and dont have a bee, to help them with the forecasts, nor an geeky email list, not 4000$.

make it easier for the little guy to forecast his sales, so he cuts down on his supply chain inventory, lowering his carbon footprint.

Blog.sas.com take a bow, on labour day, helping workers with easy to understand models.

http://blogs.sas.com/forecasting/index.php?/archives/68-Which-Naive-Model-to-Use.html