Spam Analysis Akismet-WPStats-Blogging

Here is a brief dataset I out after one hour of cutting and pasting from’s creative data style formats. It shows spam,comments,traffic, and number of posts written monthly.

Clearly monthly traffic is directly related to number I write (suppose A + B* Posts)

But Spam is showing a discontinuous growth especially after a big month (in which Reddit helped)

Akismet had some missing historical values (which is curious)

So what can we do with this dataframe in R or any other statistical software.

Spam Analysis
Month Spam detected Traffic excluding spam Posts Written Traffic /Post Spam /Post Spam/Traffic Ham detected Missed spam False positives
Feb-11 1848 5079 18 282.17 102.6667 36.39% 4.00 6.00 0.0%
Jan-11 3724 10238 35 292.51 106.4 36.37% 0.00 3.00 0.0%
Dec-10 3676 10345 35 295.57 105.0286 35.53% 8.00 6.00 0.0%
Nov-10 3680 11723 71 165.11 51.83099 31.39% 24.00 3.00 0.0%
Oct-10 2292 16430 71 231.41 32.28169 13.95% 24.00 18.00 0.0%
Sep-10 0 17913 63 284.33 0 0.00% 0.00 0.00 0.0%
Aug-10 0 5403 17 317.82 0 0.00% 0.00 0.00 0.0%
Jul-10 2 5041 10 504.1 0.2 0.04% 0.00 0.00 0.0%
Jun-10 5 4271 11 388.27 0.454545 0.12% 10.00 1.00 0.0%

Zen and the art of applying T tests to Spam Data

Decisionstats traffic seemed up mmm but Spam is way way up

Whos spamming my dear bloggie


is it the russians doing a link spam. unlikely they dont bot against Akismet that much (as they fail)

And Captcha can be failed by python (apparently. sigh)

Is there a co relation of certain tags of posts, and count of spam- hoping to distort say blogs’s search engine rankings for SAS WPS Lawsuit in Google or jet ski across  pacific in Google.

Sigh- an old retired outlaw black hat is never kept in peace. Try doing a blog search for R in Google- Revo  is now down to number 7 (which is hmm given Google Instant)

Of course I think too much about SEO, but I dont run CPC ads- I made much more money when traffic is low – say 5-10 small businesses needing to forecast their sales .

and enjoy your Thanksgiving. Remember the Indians bring the Turkeys.


Open Source and Software Strategy

Curt Monash at Monash Research pointed out some ongoing open source GPL issues for WordPress and the Thesis issue (Also see and

As a user of both going upwards of 2 years- I believe open source and GPL license enforcement are general parts of software strategy of most software companies nowadays. Some thoughts on  open source and software strategy-Thesis remains a very very popular theme and has earned upwards of 100,000 $ for its creator (estimate based on 20k plus installs and 60$ avg price)

  • Little guys like to give away code to get some satisfaction/ recognition, big guys give away free code only when its necessary or when they are not making money in that product segment anyway.
  • As Ethan Hunt said, ” Every Hero needs a Villian”. Every software (market share) war between players needs One Big Company Holding more market share and Open Source Strategy between other player who is not able to create in house code, so effectively out sources by creating open source project. But same open source propent rarely gives away the secret to its own money making project.
    • Examples- Google creates open source Android, but wont reveal its secret algorithm for search which drives its main profits,
    • Google again puts a paper for MapReduce but it’s Yahoo that champions Hadoop,
    • Apple creates open source projects ( but wont give away its Operating Source codes (why?) which help people buys its more expensive hardware,
    • IBM who helped kickstart the whole proprietary code thing (remember MS DOS) is the new champion of open source ( and
    • Microsoft continues to spark open source debate but read and  also
    • SAS gives away a lot of open source code (Read Jim Davis , CMO SAS here , but will stick to Base SAS code (even though it seems to be making more money by verticals focus and data mining).
    • SPSS was the first big analytics company that helps supports R (open source stats software) but will cling to its own code on its softwares.
    • gives away its software (and I like Akismet just as well as blogging) for open source, but hey as anyone who is on knows how locked in you can get by its (pricy) platform.
    • Vendor Lock-in (wink wink price escalation) is the elephant in the room for Big Software Proprietary Companies.
    • SLA Quality, Maintenance and IP safety is the uh-oh for going in for open source software mostly.
  • Lack of IP protection for revenue models for open source code is the big bottleneck  for a lot of companies- as very few software users know what to do with source code if you give it to them anyways.
    • If companies were confident that they would still be earning same revenue and there would be less leakage or theft, they would gladly give away the source code.
    • Derivative softwares or extensions help popularize the original softwares.
      • Half Way Steps like Facebook Applications  the original big company to create a platform for third party creators),
      • IPhone Apps and Android Applications show success of creating APIs to help protect IP and software control while still giving some freedom to developers or alternate
      • User Interfaces to R in both SAS/IML and JMP is a similar example
  • Basically open source is mostly done by under dog while top dog mostly rakes in money ( and envy)
  • There is yet to a big commercial success in open source software, though they are very good open source softwares. Just as Google’s success helped establish advertising as an alternate ( and now dominant) revenue source for online companies , Open Source needs a big example of a company that made billions while giving source code away and still retaining control and direction of software strategy.
  • Open source people love to hate proprietary packages, yet there are more shades of grey (than black and white) and hypocrisy (read lies) within  the open source software movement than the regulated world of big software. People will be still people. Software is just a piece of code.  😉

(Art citation- and

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