Tag: government

Ah! The Internet.

On the Internet I am not brown or black or white. I am Anonymous and yet myself. I am free to choose  whatever identity I wish to choose, free to drink from whatever pools of knowledge my local government wishes to forbid. The Internet does not care about how rich or poor I may be. It has ways to track exactly where I am, but it has tools to disguise that as well. On the internet the strongest government, the richest corporation and the deepest pockets can tremble before the bits and bytes of a talented and motivated hacker working from his basement in his parents house.
There are no losers on the Internet: only winners. Except for those who seek to covet and control the uncontrollable- the human desire to seek knowledge beyond the confines of whatever cave they may find themselves borne in.
There are no countries to wage war on the Internet: there is nothing to kill and die for. The Internet allowed a million writers to write and publish without the interference of brokers and intermediaries. It allowed a billion people to download a trillion songs that were locked away in some rich man’s virtual vault. It allowed a dozen countries to overthrow their dictators without wasting a billion worth of goods and treasure.

On the Internet, everyone is equal, free and true to the own nature they choose, not the fate that is chosen by corporation, country or circumstance.
Ah! The Internet- it will set you free.

Credit Downgrade of USA and Triple A Whining

As a person trained , deployed and often asked to comment on macroeconomic shenanigans- I have the following observations to make on the downgrade of US Debt by S&P

1) Credit rating is both a mathematical exercise of debt versus net worth as well as intention to repay. Given the recent deadlock in United States legislature on debt ceiling, it is natural and correct to assume that holding US debt is slightly more risky in 2011 as compared to 2001. That means if the US debt was AAA in 2001 it sure is slightly more risky in 2011.

2) Politicians are criticized the world over in democracies including India, UK and US. This is natural , healthy and enforced by checks and balances by constitution of each country. At the time of writing this, there are protests in India on corruption, in UK on economic disparities, in US on debt vs tax vs spending, Israel on inflation. It is the maturity of the media as well as average educational level of citizenry that amplifies and inflames or dampens sentiment regarding policy and business.

3) Conspicuous consumption has failed both at an environmental and economic level. Cheap debt to buy things you do not need may have made good macro economic sense as long as the things were made by people locally but that is no longer the case. Outsourcing is not all evil, but it sure is not a perfect solution to economics and competitiveness. Outsourcing is good or outsourcing is bad- well it depends.

4) In 1944 , the US took debt to fight Nazism, build atomic power and generally wage a lot of war and lots of dual use inventions. In 2004-2010 the US took debt to fight wars in Iraq, Afghanistan and bail out banks and automobile companies. Some erosion in the values represented by a free democracy has taken place, much to the delight of authoritarian regimes (who have managed to survive Google and Facebook).

5) A Double A rating is still quite a good rating. Noone is moving out of the US Treasuries- I mean seriously what are your alternative financial resources to park your government or central bank assets, euro, gold, oil, rare earth futures, metals or yen??

6) Income disparity as a trigger for social unrest in UK, France and other parts is an ominous looming threat that may lead to more action than the poor maths of S &P. It has been some time since riots occured in the United States and I believe in time series and cycles especially given the rising Gini coefficients .

Gini indices for the United States at various times, according to the US Census Bureau:[8][9][10]

  • 1929: 45.0 (estimated)
  • 1947: 37.6 (estimated)
  • 1967: 39.7 (first year reported)
  • 1968: 38.6 (lowest index reported)
  • 1970: 39.4
  • 1980: 40.3
  • 1990: 42.8
    • (Recalculations made in 1992 added a significant upward shift for later values)
  • 2000: 46.2
  • 2005: 46.9
  • 2006: 47.0 (highest index reported)
  • 2007: 46.3
  • 2008: 46.69
  • 2009: 46.8

7) Again I am slightly suspicious of an American Corporation downgrading the American Governmental debt when it failed to reconcile numbers by 2 trillion and famously managed to avoid downgrading Lehman Brothers.  What are the political affiliations of the S &P board. What are their backgrounds. Check the facts, Watson.

The Chinese government should be concerned if it is holding >1000 tonnes of Gold and >1 trillion plus of US treasuries lest we have a third opium war (as either Gold or US Treasuries will burst)

. Opium in 1850 like the US Treasuries in 2010 have no inherent value except for those addicted to them.

8   ) Ron Paul and Paul Krugman are the two extremes of economic ideology in the US.

Reminds me of the old saying- Robbing Peter to pay Paul. Both the Pauls seem equally unhappy and biased.

I have to read both WSJ and NYT to make sense of what actually is happening in the US as opinionated journalism has managed to elbow out fact based journalism. Do we need analytics in journalism education/ reporting?

9) Panic buying and selling would lead to short term arbitrage positions. People like W Buffet made more money in the crash of 2008 than people did in the boom years of 2006-7

If stocks are cheap- buy. on the dips. Acquire companies before they go for IPOs. Go buy your own stock if you are sitting on  a pile of cash. Buy some technology patents in cloud , mobile, tablet and statistical computing if you have a lot of cash and need to buy some long term assets.

10) Follow all advice above at own risk and no liability to this author 😉

 

Indian Business Schools Alumni try to grow more equal

A message from one the IIM (Indian Institute of Management) alumni networks, just an example of how any global organization should make extra efforts to make things more equal- and (thus position their brand for a differentiated place for attracting talent)

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indian_Institutes_of_Management

The Indian Institutes of Management (IIMs), are graduate business schools in India that also conduct research and provide consultancy services in the field of management to various sectors of the Indian economy. They were created by the Indian Government[1] with the aim of identifying the brightest intellectual talent[1] available in the student community of India and training it in the best management techniques available in the world, to ultimately create a pool of elite managers to manage and lead the various sections of the Indian economy.

The IIMs are considered the top business schools in India.[3] All the IIMs are completely autonomous institutes owned and financed by the Central Government of India. In order of establishment, the IIMs are located at Calcutta (Kolkata), Ahmedabad, Bangalore, Lucknow, Kozhikode (Calicut), Indore, Shillong, Ranchi, Rohtak, Raipur, Trichy, Kashipur and Udaipur. (My alma mater is Lucknow)

 

IIMs being role models have shared knowledge and skills with other institutions to improve their quality and standards in management education


————————————————————————————————————–
IIM A Alumni Association has been reaching out to the alumni associations of other IIMs to broad base the brotherhood (no offense to the fairer sex. Couldn’t think of a replacement word).

IM Calcutta Alumni Association has been conducting a lecture series and has invited us for the next edition. The topic is “The Unlimited Person”

India’s ambitions today – particulary reflected in the Corporate Sector – are Unlimited. What mind-set does it take to realise these ambitions ? Minds that live in the past or in the future – as too many Indian minds do – limit themselves, their companies and their country.

This presentation gives several examples of our current average mind-set and talks about ways in which an unlimited mind-set can emerge, creating “The Unlimited Person”

The speaker will be IIM Calcutta alumnus Shashi Maudgal, Chief Marketing Officer of Hindalco Industries of the Aditya Birla Group. The date is Friday June 24th at Gulmohar at the India Habitat Centre . Time 7 pm.

We hope you will come for this lecture and benefit from Shashi’s experience and insights.

Jayaraman -PGP ’70 / Sunil Kala PGP ’73 / Salil Agrawal PGP ’83

T. Venkateswaran PGP ’85 / Rahul Aggarwal PGP ’94

Tools for Hackers:Beginners

How to disguise your IP Address from your most wonderful glorious leaders-

From

 

https://www.torproject.org/projects/torbrowser.html.en

Tor Browser Bundle

The Tor software protects you by bouncing your communications around a distributed network of relays run by volunteers all around the world: it prevents somebody watching your Internet connection from learning what sites you visit, it prevents the sites you visit from learning your physical location, and it lets you access sites which are blocked.

The Tor Browser Bundle lets you use Tor on Windows, Mac OS X, or Linux without needing to install any software. It can run off a USB flash drive, comes with a pre-configured web browser, and is self-contained. The Tor IM Browser Bundleadditionally allows instant messaging and chat over Tor. If you would prefer to use your existing web browser, install Tor permanently, or if you don’t use Windows, see the other ways to download Tor.

Freedom House has produced a video on how to find and use the Tor Browser Bundle. If you don’t see a video below, view it at Youtube . Know of a better video or one translated into your language? Let us know!

 

 

 

and if you now want to see or check your own website for a Denial of Service attack , download this

http://sourceforge.net/projects/loic/

This is the software for which 32 Turkish teenagers got arrested for bringing down their govt websites. Do NOT USE it for ILLEGAL purposes,

because 1) it is hosted on a western website that due to Patriot Act would tracking downloads as well as most likely be inserting some logging code into your computer (especially if you are still on Windows)

2) Turkey being a NATO member got rather immediate notice of this – which makes it very likely that this tool is compromised in the Western Hemisphere. You can probably use this in Eastern Hemisphere country excluding Israel, Turkey, China, India ,Korea or Japan because these countries do have sophisticated hackers working for the government as well.

3) This is just a beginners tool to understand how flooding a website with requests work.

http://sourceforge.net/projects/loic/files/

Basically download, unzip the file

Enter URL and click Lock on to know IP address.

use HTTP Method. Make say 1000 threads.

Then press the IMMA CHARGING MY LAZER big button.

Note the Failed Tab tells you how good or bad this method is.

Note – it wont work on my blogs hosted on wordpress.com- but then those blogs had a root level breach some time back. It did work on both my blogspot and my tumblr blogs, and it completely shattered my son’s self hosted wordpress blog (see below)

 

 

Predictive Analytics World

Here is an announcement from Predictive Analytics World, the worlds largest vendor neutral conference dedicated to Predictive Analytics alone. Decisionstats has been a blog partner of PAWCON since inception. This is cool stuff!Predictive Analytics World New York October 2011

Video Testimonials: Reasons to Attend Predictive Analytics World Oct 2011, NY  

What’s Predictive Analytics World (PAW) all about and why should you go? See and hear experiences from those who have attended PAW. The video recorded at PAW San Francisco 2011 includes statements from Thomas Davenport, conference chair Eric Siegel, and other conference participants and VIPs.

 

Join your peers October 17-21, 2011 at the Hilton New York for Predictive Analytics World, the business event for predictive analytics professionals, managers and commercial practitioners, covering today’s commercial deployment of predictive analytics, across industries and across software vendors.

Register using the code REDC before June 15th and 10% of your registration proceeds will be donated to American Red Cross Midwest Tornado Relief Effort. Also, take advantage of Super Early Bird Pricing and realize $400 in savings.

Discover new content covering all the latest topics and advanced methods by participating in PAW’s workshops, case studies, and educational sessions.   View full agenda and topics online now.

PAW NYC agenda highlights include:

  • Keynotes from Tom Davenport, President’s Distinguished Professor, Babson College, Author, Competing on Analytics and Eric Siegel,  Conference Program Chair, Predictive Analytics World
  • Special plenary sessions from industry heavyweights, Usama Fayyad, Ph.D., CEO, Open Insights and John F. Elder, CEO and Founder, Elder Research
  • Full day workshops that cover the topics of Decisioning, Core Methods, Net Lift Modeling, Hands-On Intro, Hands-On R, Intro to Predictive Analytics and Intro to Business Analytics
  • Topics covering black box trading, churn modeling, crowdsourcing, demand forecasting, ensemble models, fraud detection, healthcare, insurance applications, law enforcement, litigation, market mix modeling, mobile analytics, online marketing, risk management, social data, supply chain management, targeting direct marketing, uplift modeling (net lift), and other innovative applications that benefit organizations in new and creative ways.
Thomas Davenport
Thomas Davenport
Author, Competing on Analytics		 Eric Siegel, Ph.D
VIP from IBM Research (TBA)
Keynote on Jeopardy-Winning Watson and DeepQA		 Eric Siegel, Ph.D
Eric Siegel, Ph.D
Program Chair, Predictive Analytics World
Usama Fayyad, Ph.D
Usama Fayyad, Ph.D
CEO, Open Insights		 John F. Elder IV, Ph.D
John F. Elder IV, Ph.D
Chief Scientist, Elder Research, Inc.

Become an invaluable resource to your organization by discovering new processes and tactics that your peers are using to optimize with the best methods that leverage data – bringing their business results to the next level.

New Financial Services Track — You Asked and We Delivered

October’s event will include a new conference track of sessions dedicated to the Financial Services industry. This track will feature something for users of all levels, whether you’re deploying your first initiative or learning new ways to position analytics within your organization.

Text analytics. The new conference Text Analytics World,
co-located with PAW NYC, complements PAW’s agenda
with reasonable cross-registration options.

Take advantage of Super Early Bird Pricing and realize
$400 in savings before June 15, 2011.

Note:  Each additional attendee from the same company registered at the same time receives an extra $200 off the Conference Pass.

Register Now!

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Register Now!
All Analytics Conferences: 

Predictive Analytics World for Government – Sept 12-13 in DC
Predictive Analytics World NYC – Oct 17-21
Text Analytics World NYC – Oct 19-20
Predictive Analytics World San Francisco – March 2012
Predictive Analytics World Videos – Available on-demand
Produced by: 

Predictionimpact
RisingMedia

 

What is a White Paper?

Christine and Jimmy Wales
Image via Wikipedia

As per Jimmy Wales and his merry band at Wiki (pedia not leaky-ah)- The emphasis is mine

What is the best white paper you have read in the past 15 years.

Categories are-

  • Business benefits: Makes a business case for a certain technology or methodology.
  • Technical: Describes how a certain technology works.
  • Hybrid: Combines business benefits with technical details in a single document.
  • Policy: Makes a case for a certain political solution to a societal or economic challenge.
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A white paper is an authoritative report or guide that helps solve a problem. White papers are used to educate readers and help people make decisions, and are often requested and used in politics, policy, business, and technical fields. In commercial use, the term has also come to refer to documents used by businesses as a marketing or sales tool. Policy makers frequently request white papers from universities or academic personnel to inform policy developments with expert opinions or relevant research.

Government white papers

In the Commonwealth of Nations, “white paper” is an informal name for a parliamentary paper enunciating government policy; in the United Kingdom these are mostly issued as “Command papers“. White papers are issued by the government and lay out policy, or proposed action, on a topic of current concern. Although a white paper may on occasion be a consultation as to the details of new legislation, it does signify a clear intention on the part of a government to pass new law. White Papers are a “…. tool of participatory democracy … not [an] unalterable policy commitment.[1] “White Papers have tried to perform the dual role of presenting firm government policies while at the same time inviting opinions upon them.” [2]

In Canada, a white paper “is considered to be a policy document, approved by Cabinet, tabled in the House of Commons and made available to the general public.”[3] A Canadian author notes that the “provision of policy information through the use of white and green papers can help to create an awareness of policy issues among parliamentarians and the public and to encourage an exchange of information and analysis. They can also serve as educational techniques”.[4]

“White Papers are used as a means of presenting government policy preferences prior to the introduction of legislation”; as such, the “publication of a White Paper serves to test the climate of public opinion regarding a controversial policy issue and enables the government to gauge its probable impact”.[5]

By contrast, green papers, which are issued much more frequently, are more open ended. These green papers, also known as consultation documents, may merely propose a strategy to be implemented in the details of other legislation or they may set out proposals on which the government wishes to obtain public views and opinion.

White papers published by the European Commission are documents containing proposals for European Union action in a specific area. They sometimes follow a green paper released to launch a public consultation process.

For examples see the following:

 Commercial white papers

Since the early 1990s, the term white paper has also come to refer to documents used by businesses and so-called think tanks as marketing or sales tools. White papers of this sort argue that the benefits of a particular technology, product or policy are superior for solving a specific problem.

These types of white papers are almost always marketing communications documents designed to promote a specific company’s or group’s solutions or products. As a marketing tool, these papers will highlight information favorable to the company authorizing or sponsoring the paper. Such white papers are often used to generate sales leads, establish thought leadership, make a business case, or to educate customers or voters.

There are four main types of commercial white papers:

  • Business benefits: Makes a business case for a certain technology or methodology.
  • Technical: Describes how a certain technology works.
  • Hybrid: Combines business benefits with technical details in a single document.
  • Policy: Makes a case for a certain political solution to a societal or economic challenge.

Resources

  • Stelzner, Michael (2007). Writing White Papers: How to capture readers and keep them engaged. Poway, California: WhitePaperSource Publishing. pp. 214. ISBN 9780977716937.
  • Bly, Robert W. (2006). The White Paper Marketing Handbook. Florence, Kentucky: South-Western Educational Publishing. pp. 256. ISBN 9780324300826.
  • Kantor, Jonathan (2009). Crafting White Paper 2.0: Designing Information for Today’s Time and Attention Challenged Business Reader. Denver,Colorado: Lulu Publishing. pp. 167.ISBN 9780557163243.