Tag: culture

Assumptions on Guns

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While sitting in Delhi, India- I sometimes notice that there is one big new worthy gun related incident in the United States every six months (latest incident Gabrielle giffords incident) and the mythical NRA (which seems just as powerful as equally mythical Jewish American or Cuban American lobby ) . As someone who once trained to fire guns (.22 and SLR -rifles actually), comes from a gun friendly culture (namely Punjabi-North Indian), my dad carried a gun sometimes as a police officer during his 30 plus years of service, I dont really like guns (except when they are in a movie). My 3 yr old son likes guns a lot (for some peculiar genetic reason even though we are careful not to show him any violent TV or movie at all).

So to settle the whole guns are good- guns are bad thing I turned to the one resource -Internet

Here are some findings-

1) A lot of hard statistical data on guns is biased by the perspective of the writer- it reminds me of the old saying Lies, True lies and Statistics.

2) There is not a lot of hard data in terms of a universal research which can be quoted- unlike say lung cancer is caused by cigarettes- no broad research which can be definitive in this regards.

3) American , European and Asian attitudes on guns actually seem a function of historical availability , historic crime rates and cultural propensity for guns.

Switzerland and United States are two extreme outlier examples on gun causing violence causal statistics.

4) Lot of old and outdated data quoted selectively.

It seems you can fudge data about guns in the following ways-

1) Use relative per capita numbers vis a vis aggregate numbers

2) Compare and contrast gun numbers with crime numbers selectively

3) Remove drill down of type of firearm- like hand guns, rifles, automatic, semi automatic

Maybe I am being simplistic-but I found it easier to list credible data sources on guns than to summarize all assumptions on guns. Are guns good or bad- i dont know -it depends? Any research you can quote is welcome.

Data Sources on Guns and Firearms and Crime-

1) http://www.justfacts.com/guncontrol.asp

Ownership

* As of 2009, the United States has a population of 307 million people.[5]

* Based on production data from firearm manufacturers,[6] there are roughly 300 million firearms owned by civilians in the United States as of 2010. Of these, about 100 million are handguns.[7]

* Based upon surveys, the following are estimates of private firearm ownership in the U.S. as of 2010:

Households With a Gun Adults Owning a Gun Adults Owning a Handgun
Percentage 40-45% 30-34% 17-19%
Number 47-53 million 70-80 million 40-45 million

[8]

* A 2005 nationwide Gallup poll of 1,012 adults found the following levels of firearm ownership:

Category Percentage Owning 

a Firearm
Households 42%
Individuals 30%
Male 47%
Female 13%
White 33%
Nonwhite 18%
Republican 41%
Independent 27%
Democrat 23%

[9]

* In the same poll, gun owners stated they own firearms for the following reasons:

Protection Against Crime 67%
Target Shooting 66%
Hunting 41%

2) NationMaster.com

http://www.nationmaster.com/graph/cri_mur_wit_fir-crime-murders-with-firearms

VIEW DATA: Totals Per capita
Definition Source Printable version
Bar Graph Pie Chart Map

Showing latest available data.

Rank Countries Amount
# 1 South Africa: 31,918
# 2 Colombia: 21,898
# 3 Thailand: 20,032
# 4 United States: 9,369
# 5 Philippines: 7,708
# 6 Mexico: 2,606
# 7 Slovakia: 2,356
# 8 El Salvador: 1,441
# 9 Zimbabwe: 598
# 10 Peru: 442
# 11 Germany: 269
# 12 Czech Republic: 181
# 13 Ukraine: 173
# 14 Canada: 144
# 15 Albania: 135
# 16 Costa Rica: 131
# 17 Azerbaijan: 120
# 18 Poland: 111
# 19 Uruguay: 109
# 20 Spain: 97
# 21 Portugal: 90
# 22 Croatia: 76
# 23 Switzerland: 68
# 24 Bulgaria: 63
# 25 Australia: 59
# 26 Sweden: 58
# 27 Bolivia: 52
# 28 Japan: 47
# 29 Slovenia: 39
= 30 Hungary: 38
= 30 Belarus: 38
# 32 Latvia: 28
# 33 Burma: 27
# 34 Macedonia, The Former Yugoslav Republic of: 26
# 35 Austria: 25
# 36 Estonia: 21
# 37 Moldova: 20
# 38 Lithuania: 16
= 39 United Kingdom: 14
= 39 Denmark: 14
# 41 Ireland: 12
# 42 New Zealand: 10
# 43 Chile: 9
# 44 Cyprus: 4
# 45 Morocco: 1
= 46 Iceland: 0
= 46 Luxembourg: 0
= 46 Oman: 0
Total: 100,693
Weighted average: 2,097.8

DEFINITION: Total recorded intentional homicides committed with a firearm. Crime statistics are often better indicators of prevalence of law enforcement and willingness to report crime, than actual prevalence.

SOURCE: The Eighth United Nations Survey on Crime Trends and the Operations of Criminal Justice Systems (2002) (United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime, Centre for International Crime Prevention)

3)

Bureau of Justice Statistics

see

http://bjs.ojp.usdoj.gov/dataonline/Search/Homicide/State/RunHomTrendsInOneVar.cfm

or the brand new website (till 2009) on which I CANNOT get gun crime but can get total

http://www.ucrdatatool.gov/

Estimated  murder rate *
Year United States-Total
1960 5.1
1961 4.8
1962 4.6
1963 4.6
1964 4.9
1965 5.1
1966 5.6
1967 6.2
1968 6.9
1969 7.3
1970 7.9
1971 8.6
1972 9.0
1973 9.4
1974 9.8
1975 9.6
1976 8.7
1977 8.8
1978 9.0
1979 9.8
1980 10.2
1981 9.8
1982 9.1
1983 8.3
1984 7.9
1985 8.0
1986 8.6
1987 8.3
1988 8.5
1989 8.7
1990 9.4
1991 9.8
1992 9.3
1993 9.5
1994 9.0
1995 8.2
1996 7.4
1997 6.8
1998 6.3
1999 5.7
2000 5.5
2001 5.6
2002 5.6
2003 5.7
2004 5.5
2005 5.6
2006 5.7
2007 5.6
2008 5.4
2009 5.0
Notes: National or state offense totals are based on data from all reporting agencies and estimates for unreported areas.
* Rates are the number of reported offenses per 100,000 population
  • United States-Total –
    • The 168 murder and nonnegligent homicides that occurred as a result of the bombing of the Alfred P. Murrah Federal Building in Oklahoma City in 1995 are included in the national estimate.
    • The 2,823 murder and nonnegligent homicides that occurred as a result of the events of September 11, 2001, are not included in the national estimates.

     

    		•
    Sources: 
    FBI, Uniform Crime Reports as prepared by the National Archive of Criminal Justice Data
    4) united nation statistics of 2002  were too old in my opinion.
    wikipedia seems too broad based to qualify as a research article but is easily accessible http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gun_violence_in_the_United_States
    to actually buy a gun or see guns available for purchase in United States see
    http://www.usautoweapons.com/
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    Business Intelligence and Stat Computing: The White Man's Last Stand

    Unknown White Male
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    Name an industry in which top level executives are mostly white males, new recruits are mostly male (white or Indian/Chinese), women are primarily shunted into publicity relationships, social media or marketing.

    Statistical Computing And Business Intelligence are the white man’s last stand to preserve an exclusive club of hail fellow well met and lets catch up after drinks culture. Newer startups are the exception in the business intelligence world , but  a whiter face helps (so do an Indian or Chinese male) to attract a mostly male white venture capital industry.

    I have earlier talked about technology being totally dominated by Asian males at grad student level and ASA membership almost not representing minorities like blacks and yes women- but this is about corporate culture in the traditional BI world.

    If you are connected to the BI or Stat Computing world, who would you rather hire AND who have you actually hired- with identical resumes

    White Male or White Female or Brown Indian Male/Female or Yellow Male/Female or Black Male or Black Female

    How many Black Grad Assistants do you see in tech corridors- (Nah- it is easier to get a  hard working Chinese /Indian- who smiles and does a great job at $12/hour)

    How many non- Asian non white Authors do you see in technology and does that compare to pie chart below


    racist image Pictures, Images and Photos

    Note_ 2010 Census numbers arent available for STEM, and I was unable to find ethnic background for various technology companies, because though these numbers are collected for legal purposes, they are not publicly shared.

    Any technology company which has more than 40% women , or more than 10% blacks would be fairly representative to the US population. Anecdotal evidence suggests European employment for minorities is worse (especially for Asians) but better for women.

    Any data sources to support/ refute these hypothesis are welcome for purposes of scientific inquiry.

    racist math image Pictures, Images and Photos

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    China biggest threat to Indian Software in 5 years: Indian Tech CEO

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    An interview with a noted Indian Software CEO, mentions China the possible biggest threat in next 5 years at  http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/2010/10/13/stories/2010101353180700.htm

     

    China could be the biggest threat to India in next five years, positioning itself as the lowest-cost manpower supplier in the IT sector by 2015, according to Mr Vineet Nayar, CEO, HCL Technologies.

    “I believe it (China) is the biggest threat in the next five years that we are going to face…So India will have to up its game,” he told reporters on sidelines of ‘Directions’, the company’s annual town hall.

    Terming China, as both “threat and opportunity”, Mr Nayar said that India will have to find alternate “differentiators” than the ones it currently has. Despite issues of language and the purported inability to scale-up, China has sharpened its technological and innovation edge, he added.

    “Look at the technology companies from China…how does that fit in with the assumption that they (China) do not understand English or technology. They are producing cutting edge technology at a price which is lower than everyone else,” he said.

    Manpower

    By 2015, Mr Nayar said, China will be the lowest cost manpower supplier in IT sector to the world

    ——————————————————————————————–

    I wonder how he did his forecast. Did he do a time series analysis using a software, did he peer into his crystal ball, or did he spend a lot of time brainstorming with his strategic macro economic team on Chinese threat.

    China has various advantages over India (and in fact the US)-

    1) Big pool of reliable scientific manpower

    2) State funded education in higher studies and STEM

    3) Increasing exposure with the West-English speaking is no longer an issue. Almost 50 % of Grad Students in the US in STEM and certain sectors are Chinese and they not only retain fraternal ties with the motherland- they often remain un-assimilated with American Culture mainstream. or they have a separate interaction with fellow American Chinese and seperate with American Americans.

    Chinese suffer from some disadvantages in software-

    1) Communism Perception- Just because the Govt is communist and likes to confront US once a year (and India twice a month)- is no excuse for the hapless Chinese startup guy to lose out on software outsourcing contracts. unfortunately there have been reported cases where sneak codes have been inserted in code deliverables for American partners, just like American companies are forced to work with DoD (especially in software, embedded chips and telecom)

    If you have 10000 lines of code delivered by your Chinese partner, how sure are you of going through each line of code for each sub routine or call procedure.

    2) English- Chinese accent is like Chinese cooking. Unique- many Chinese are unable to master the different style of English even after years (derived from Latin and Indo European class of languages)

    Sales jobs tend to go to American trained Chinese or to Westerners.

    In Indian software companies, accent is a lesser problem.

    ———————————————————————————-

    The biggest threat to Indian software in 5 years is actually Indian software itself- Can it evolve and mature to a product based model from a service only model.

    Can Indian software partner with Chinese companies and maybe teach the Indian government why friendship is more profitable than envy and suspicion. If the US and China can trade enormously despite annual tensions, why cant Indian services do the same- if they lose this opportunity, US companies will likely bypass them and create the same GE/McKinsey style backoffices that started the Indian offshoring phenomenon.

    3) Lastly- what did the poor American grad student do to deserve that even if devotes years to study STEM (and being called a Geek and Nerd) his job will get outsourced to India or China (if not now- in his 30s or worse in his 40s). Talk to any middle aged IT chap in the US who is middle class- and India and China would figure in why he still worries about his overpriced mortgage.

    Unless the US wants only Twitter and Facebook as dominant technologies in the 21 st century.

    Amen.

     

     

     

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    Bruno Aziza, Microsoft Global BI Lead joins PAW Keynote

    By Richard Wheeler (Zephyris) 2007. Lambda rep...
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    An interesting development, Bruno Aziza, Director, Worldwide Strategy Lead, Business Intelligence, Microsoft has joined Predictive Analytics World as a keynote speaker.

    http://www.predictiveanalyticsworld.com/dc/2010/agenda.php#day2-2

    Keynote
    Predictive Analytics and Business Performance

    In this session, Bruno Aziza will discuss the challenges organizations face with Analytics and Performance. This participative session will provide first-hand accounts from Fortune 500 companies who are winning by building accountability, intelligence, and informed decision-making into their organizational DNA.

    Speaker: Bruno Aziza, Director, Worldwide Strategy Lead, Business Intelligence, Microsoft

    Some info about Mr Aziza,

    http://www.predictiveanalyticsworld.com/dc/2010/speakers.php#aziza

    Bruno Aziza, Director, Worldwide Strategy Lead, Business Intelligence,Microsoft

    Bruno AzizaBruno Aziza is a recognized authority on Strategy Execution, Business Intelligence and Information Management. He is the co-author of best-selling book, “Drive Business Performance: Enabling a Culture of Intelligent Execution” and a Fellow at the Advanced Performance Institute, a world-leading and independent advisory group specialized in organizational performance. Drs. Kaplan & Norton, of Balanced Scorecard fame, praise Aziza for moving “the field of performance management forward in important new directions.”

    Aziza’s work has been featured in publications across North America, Europe and Asia such as Business Finance magazine, Intelligent Enterprise, CRM magazine and others.

    Aziza has held management positions at Apple Inc., Business Objects (SAP), AppStream(Symantec) and Decathlon SA. He currently works on Microsoft Business Intelligence go-to-market strategy and execution for partners, services, sales and marketing. Aziza lives in Seattle with his family and enjoys sports and travelling.

    He regularly provides views on leadership and performance on the SuccessFactors thought leader Network , the CIO Network and Forbes Magazine. Aziza is the host ofBizIntelligence.TV – a leading weekly show on Business Intelligence and Analytics. An award-winning speaker, Aziza frequently keynotes international events and has shared the stage with executives and thought leaders such as Dr. Kaplan. Aziza’s biggest crowd to date is 5,000 people.

    Follow or contact Bruno via:
    •Twitter @ http://twitter.com/brunoaziza
    •Facebook @ http://tinyurl.com/bruno-on-facebook
    •Linkedin @ http://www.linkedin.com/in/brunoaziza
    •YouTube @ http://tinyurl.com/bruno-on-tv
    •Kindle blog @ http://tinyurl.com/culture-blog
    •Forbes blog @ http://tinyurl.com/culture-blog

    That makes it an interesting Pow Wow between the big players at the conference Oracle,SAP, IBM, SAS and now MS –all seem to be there.

    Truly a Predictive Analytics World.