The Math behind online strategy games

Online strategy games are the kind people play on Facebook , with thousands of multiple users logging in. The graphics are not as demanding as those in a virtual world (like www.secondlife.com or World of Warcraft http://www.worldofwarcraft.com )

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These graphical games are hugely entertaining and addictive. unfortunately World of Warcraft is not present either in India or China.

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However this post talks about simpler games (which are more like optimization problems). Here gamers get a specific or variable game currency to spend (which can be tokens, gold ,or dollars). The amounts can be fixed or varying dependent on current position. The gamer then has to allocate the currency into multiple resources that increase his net worth (or prevent his net worth from decreasing by other gamer’s interventions “attacks”) .  These multiple resources can be defensive (to prevent other gamers from stealing worth or value/score) , aggresive (to steal other gamers value) or passively accretive (enhances value on stand alone basis). Usually the costs of these resources are different with different benefits . The benefits are either fixed (like in the http://www.facebook.com games Triumph or Return of the Infernals ..below) or they vary (as in the game DopeWars Online).

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To further enhance the optimization complexity , gamers can form alliances or cartels to co ordinate strategy against other gamers.

Such games help in simulating operations production, market forces in business strategy (like the beer game) , and have now taken the leap into free online games thanks to Google’s Open social initiative and Facebook’s  pioneering application building by third party developers.

Ultimately they are simply optimization equations which seek to maximize net worth or score of a player subject to multiple fixed and variable constraints.

A good website to track the world of games is www.gamespot.com

This is a fast growing industry and creativity in designing a simple front end,financial resources to host servers , and some maths to run the back end optimization is all that is required .

You might just get some interesting cash flows from advertising, in game promotions,premium subscriptions , and bonus packs besides enjoying the game of course.

Get (or Atleast Try ) Clicky

After writing about various tools on online analytics, a good favorite is Clicky from http://getclicky.com/

It is recommended especially to WordPress users because it has a customized WP Plugin (which means all the fun without any of the code), has an affiliate referral program (it’s a tough economy !) and can help you track individual visitors with a great deal of analytical value.

You can view the www.getclicky.com site for their own benefit list.

Short of actually building a click stream capturing application (which is quite useful for tracking and building models for web mining), clickstream data is extremely helpful in generating insights as it is at a record /visitor level and can be sliced /diced and viewed for your custom insights.

As for building automated models using web data, their is another software from Kxen (www.Kxen.com). They have been around for some time , though losing out on a couple of big chances , but their web scoring module is definitely worth a dekko.

Analyzing Web Traffic by Google Trends

And the Google Lords are back with another software. This one helps analyze trends of websites (even if they are not yours) and so is pitched directly at Alexa .

It can be quite useful in analyzing internet web sites and also separating the fact and fiction from new web startups.And no you cant analyze Google sites from this software..the Sith Lords/Jedi of the internet thrive on mystery.

Here is an analysis of the big websites and you can see how Facebook overcame Myspace and why Yahoo.com is such a prize for Microsoft.

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facebook.com -Light Blue

myspace.com  -Red

yahoo.com -Orange

msn.com -Green

ebay.com -Dark Blue

Plurk vs Twitter: Sweet and Bitter

This is my Twitter Page. Note that my updates go down vertically almost like a blog (hence a micro blog)

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This is my http://www.plurk.com page. The updates go Horizontally almost like a Gantt Chart. This tool can be used for tracking projects also especially large , on the web projects…okay I am kidding.

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The change is nice…but Twitter is where my pals are.

Whats your micro blog ? (A micro blog is just a tool where you update your status continuously like  , to tell your friends , family or publish your stories /links to your latest blog posts). It is fun and sometimes very useful.

5 Web Analytics Softwares (apart from Google)

The following softwares are also recommended for web analytics (or analyzing traffic to your website)

1) Index Tools (acquired by Yahoo in April , thats 2 months ago) and now reportedly free .It is considered comparable in most features to Omniture , the market leader (see below)

http://www.indextools.com/products/features.html

2) Omniture

The leading professional web analytics software. The only caveat is the premium cost.

http://www.omniture.com/en/products/web_analytics

3) Get Clicky

getclicky.com

4) Sitemeter (Small , useful for counting traffics, not useful for graphics rich sites)

www.sitemeter.com

5) Microsoft’s Answer (Adcentre -Analytics)

http://advertising.microsoft.com/advertising/adcenter-analytics

So here are 5 alternative ways to Google Analytics and thus have more , better control over your data.

The actual software used should be dependent on

your budget,

anticipated traffic and

subject matter domain of website.

Google’s fine print

Just read the fine print in Google Analytics,

Google’s (and its wholly owned subsidiaries’) total cumulative liability to You or any other party for any loss or damages resulting from any claims, demands, or actions arising out of or relating to this Agreement shall not exceed U.S. $500.”

“TERM and TERMINATION . Either party to the Agreement may terminate it at any time and for any reason.

Well , thats just standard legal clause right. Wrong.

It happened to me once when my gmail account got de activated for 1 day, as I wrote to larry@google.com and sergei@google.com , asking to stop their recruiter for spamming me.  If they (or any Googler) are reading this , please stop here right now, forgive me and I shall repent ………………………………………………………..for I need that gmail account still.

Anyways Google Analytics remains the best for tracking website performance.You can check website performance in terms of page views,time per page, location of visitors, trends in recency .frequency and duration of visits

Unfortunately it does not give you access to raw data from your own website, but gives you views , and slices of data .

The fine print says Google CAN use that data but you cant since, a record level data can be used for identifying customers using i.p addresses.

INFORMATION RIGHTS AND PUBLICITY . Google and its wholly owned subsidiaries may retain and use, subject to the terms of its Privacy Policy (located at http://www.google.com/privacy.html , or such other URL as Google may provide from time to time), information collected in Your use of the Service.

BLAH BLAH BLAH…

Unless You notify Google otherwise in writing, You hereby grant to Google and its wholly owned subsidiaries a limited license to use Your trade names, trademarks, service marks, logos, domain names and other distinctive brand features (“Brand Features”) in presentations, marketing materials, customer lists, and financial reports.”

7. PRIVACY . You will not (and will not allow any third party to) use the Service to track or collect personally identifiable information of Internet users, nor will You (or will You allow any third party to) associate any data gathered from Your website(s) (or such third parties’ website(s)) with any personally identifying information from any source as part of Your use (or such third parties’ use) of the Service. “.

Agreed on enhanced graphics, and functional design is extremely good for a free software. But it does allow the big G to own more of your data, which they cross sell for advertising.

Now if only Windows /Microsoft started giving programs for free by using advertising in their softwares. or Yahoo launched a tracking software .

Future Online Advertising Revenue Sharing Models

Imagine if one company had control to 60 % of all advertising in other media channels like Television ,Newspaper or Radio throughout the globe.

Given Google’s current dominance of the online Online Advertising revenue, there are likely to face significant anti trust operational risk within the next three years.Especially if they continue to play hardball on Uncle Bill from RedMond like the one they did with botched Yahoo -Microsoft deal.

The current model of pay per click for Adwords and earn per click for Adsense is unfair to both content generators and online advertisers leaving them vulnerable to  Google’s algorithms trying to cope with increasing click fraud perpetuated systematically.

Future  Online Advertising Revenue Sharing Models could include –

1) Pay per impression or time spent on site for content generators getting a higher weight age for  content generators and Pay per actual purchase for Adwords/online sales.

This removes the cost per milli (C.P.M) model to cost per customer model for advertisers which is only fair.

2) Enhanced social network and Instant Messenger advertising- If blog owners can make money from popular blogs,emails can contain ads , why can’t social network users on myspace and Facebook and orkut make some money atleast from people visiting their pages/profiles.This may involve some discreet ads below posts /messages.

This can only boost Google’s revenue in the long run and be good for the whole industry also.

3) Text Ads to Banner Ads – Banner Ads /Flashier Ads to actually increase appeal on online plain vanilla text ads. Also include some flash ads in all You Tube or Video content. This content /ads will be priced much differently and distinctly than treating it as just glorified text ads like it is treated currently. It could also create a new wave of new media advertising creative professionals savvy in Silverlight and Flash.

4) The 100 $ limit for adsense – Google really should disclose to investors how much money it owes to people for the adsense revenue below 100 $ as the long tail on the Internet can be very very long. Why have a limit on the internet anyways especially if the adsense customer is willing to provide electronic transfer details or Paypal equivalent payment transaction details, then those limits should be much lower as transaction costs per unit transaction would be lower.

What prevents Microsoft from launching a lower priced alternative to Adsense/ Adwords really beats me !!

5) Offline advertising/Microsoft moves – Imagine ads on your windows desktop like any other software supported by ads. Lets say Office without discreet ads on right hand side comes for 250 $ and Office with ads comes for 100 $ lower .(Assuming lifetime value of a customer to be  100 $ here). Tying ads to sell more Vista ?!!!Might just work.. 🙂

The online ad world is  ready for price wars —-as economies slow down, advertisers demand better bang for the buck from media partners and competition ready to heat up in the lucrative online ad world.