Adding all the numbers

Once again I was just adding the numbers in the stimulus package of the US Senate.The economics pendulum has swung , and it has swung all the way to the left while staying there.

So here goes the math-

1) Money already spent in TARP (Troubled Asset Relief Program)

700 Billion

2) Money promised in Stimulus Package

800 Billion

Adults in the United States – =306-82=224 Million

Excluding the top 10 % , we have 200 million Americans qualifying for direct tax or indirect stimulus and stimuli.

That’s Total Money ( Bush TARP + Obama Stimulus) per Person =

1500 Billion/200 Million= 7500 USD

Or 15000 USD per Household.

What is wrong with this math ? Why does this number seem so low even though people /senators complain about pigs with lipsticks and pork barrel etc.

Why does the new CHANGED administration need approval for ALL 700 million ( i MEAN billion) at once ………………rather than say how about taking it 100 billion at a time.

Mortgage Relief

If instead of the usual 30 year mortgage loan, banks were told to increase loan tenure to 45 years , where 50 % defaults would be insured by the TARP after the first 20 billions of defaults- this can help bring DOWN the EMIs to say without costing anyone for healthier mortgage holders ( assume 80%)- thus giving a tax relief which is paid by the people themselves.

The Law

In eight years , the US managed to lose trillions of dollars in financial and economic crisis. Why don’t we see any lawsuits ? ( psst– Because all the US lawyers are all reclaiming houses and doing middle class bankruptcies . When not running for President .)

WASTE Again!

If you are interested in cryptology ,or would just like to pass messages securely without worrying too much ( especially corporate messages ,while on the road traveling,and using a public wireless network on the airports) you may try WASTE Again.

Note – We had blogged on the Tor Project much earlier and this is a step like that !

From the website-

What is "WASTE again"?

"WASTE again" enables you to create a decentralized and secure private mesh network using an unsecure network, such as the internet. Once the public encryption keys are exchanged, sending messages, creating groupchats and transferring files is easy and secure.

Creating a mesh

To create a mesh you need at least two computers with "WASTE again" installed. During installation, a unique pair of public and private keys for each computer is being generated. Before the first connection can be established, you need to exchange these public keys. These keys enable "WASTE again" to authenticate every connection to other "WASTE again" clients.

After exchanging the keys, you simply type in the computers IP address to connect to. If that computer is located behind a firewall or a NAT-router, you have to create a portmap first to enable incoming connections.

and the features include-

 

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Ajay- It is based on the same historical legacy of the PGP ( Pretty Good Privacy) project of the early 1990’s and offers up to 4096 bits of encryption. It offers a simple intuitive interface for a 4 step process in creating private and public key.Combine some John Le Carre novels tradecraft,one touch keypads and residual creativity :)  and your network is securely assured from goodwill hunting.

The downloads are here-http://wasteagain.sourceforge.net/downloads.shtml

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The $1 Bailout

Psst ! Wanna save some money for your organization. Lead a shareholder’s rally to accept federal bailout of a dollar. That puts a cap of $500,000 on the CEO’s salary. Easily the most profitable 1$ your company ever borrowed.

Where would all the CEO’s go ?Japan, China ,India pay less than this mostly. Unless you were the original owner of the company.

The top starting salary at my business school used to be $125,000  (that’s for locations out of US or UK). The top guy used to be hated by all the batch as his name got splashed in the newspapers , prompting the rest of parents to ask their child-

Hey , Why does he get so much while you don’t ? ( Now he wont)

On a serious note: If so many companies are declaring losses, that they will carry over on their books,they will actually get a tax benefit for the loss, as well as the bailout money at low rates of interest. Oh well, at least the CEO wont get rich ( if you think that half a million dollars is not rich).

There is something wrong in a world where a tea stall owner ( like in the movie Slumdog Millionaire)……….Wait ! There is something strange in a world where a tea stall owner makes more money than Citigroup and General Motors .Combined. But makes a thousand times less than their boss.

Do you make more money than Bear Sterns and Lehman Brothers ? Write in and share your perspectives.

SPSS and R

I rarely use SPSS now, but in college ( www.iiml.ac.in) my marketing professors kind of ensured I was buried in it for weeks. Much later I did to some ARIMA forecasting in SPSS for macro economic indicators prediction ( details coming up)–

 

However the SPSS help list is a great one ( SPSSX-L@LISTSERV.UGA.EDU) , not just for staying in touch with SPSS but also with the latest statistical modeling techniques. Here is an extract from the list ( www.listserv.uga.edu/archives/spssx-l.html ) on using SPSS and R together

 

Assuming version 16 or later, you need to install the R plug-in from Developer Central.  Then your R syntax can be run in the syntax window between

BEGIN PROGRAM R.

and

END PROGRAM R.

The output automatically appears in the SPSS Viewer with two cautions.  1) In version 16, R graphics are written to files and don’t appear in the Viewer.  Version 17 integrates the graphics directly.  2) When using R interactively, expression output appears in your console windows, e.g.,

summary(dta)

displays the summary statistics for a data frame, dta.  In non-interactive mode, which is what you are in when running BEGIN PROGRAM, you need to enclose the expression in a print function for it to display, e.g.,

print(summary(dta))

The documentation for the apis to communicate between SPSS and R is installed along with the plug-in, and there are examples in the Data Management book linked on Developer Central (www.spss.com/devcentral).

You might also go through the PowerPoint article on Developer Central, "Programmability in SPSS Statistics 17", which you will find on the front page of the site.  It includes a detailed example of using the R Quantreg package in SPSS as an extension command.  There is also a download in the R section on creating an SPSS dialog box that generates an R program directly.  Look for Rboxplot – Creating an R Program from a Dialog.  This has a simple dialog box that generates code for an R boxplot along with an article that explains what is happening.

 

Ajay ‘s 2 cents– SPSS treats R as an opportunity rather than a threat, partly because SPSS is a much lower priced software , and has been working to displace SAS in vain for some time now.

SAS ( the company and not the language) as the market leader has the most to lose due to

  • its high market share ( which it has maintained by aggressively seeking both legal action as well as by pumping in or investing or generously giving — huge amounts of money in hosting conferences,papers and research and keeping alumni and current employees happy and loyal),

and

  • premium pricing ( which comes under greater pricing pressure amid a general economic downturn amongst its preferred customers -especially banks and companies like Amazon , GE Money etc)

and

  • multi pronged competition with tacit support from bigger players waiting on sidelines
  • ( like IBM has an alliance with WPS which is almost a de facto Base SAS clone as it can take in SAS datasets, SAS code, and output SAS code, SAS datasets besides having it’s own Eclipse based design for the Workbench
  • Microsoft expanding data mining capabilities in SQL Server and initiatives like Microsoft Azure ( OS for Cloud Computers ) and Microsoft Mesh .
  • open source players like R, KNIME, Rapid Miner getting commercial momentum due to better value for cost ( 0 ).

and

  • data and code portability between SAS,SPSS,R due to PMML standards means switching barriers are getting lowered. There are almost no switching barriers between Base SAS and WPS in my testing experience.

The coming market share battles between SAS, and WPS and R will be interesting to watch for the analyst/customers — that is if the current economic crisis doesn’t claim any of the companies or the clients first. Alliances as well community networking among users and developers could be critical.

Still innovation flows from creative destruction of old ideas, mindsets, attitudes and yes even software.

SAS L Get out the Vote

Voting is still on for SAS L rookie of the year. 

One of the earliest Rookies nominated from India is ehm, me, which can be pretty rare.

Name            # of 2007  # of 2008
                       posts      posts
Ajay Ohri             0          351
Joe Matise           0          250
Karma Dorjetarap  4          219
Akshaya Nathilvar  0          169
Scott Bucher        0          154
Stefan Pohl          5          148
Richard Wright      0           79
Choy Junyu          0           73
Scott Raynaud      0           69
SAS 9 BI USER      0           55
Tom Smith           0           53
Jim Agnew           0           52
Josh Lee              0           51

 

If you are on the SAS-L list, you can vote for the following

You can vote (one vote per person please) at:
http://ires.ku.edu/~ipsr/SGF2009/saslbof.htm
Voting will end February 12th.

KNIME

Check out KNIME from www.knime.org if you are looking for modular data extensibility and ability to do exploratory analysis. You can use it for data modeling using decision tree and extend it further. Thanks to Bob Schultz and REVolution Computing guys as well as Mike Zeller of www.zementis.com for leading- pointing me this way.

  • Yes they (KNIME.org) have a commercial version as well as free version.
  • No, they wont charge you in hidden costs. Including training or learning time etc.
  • Yes , they do use PMML for porting data from platforms.
  • Best of all , it is great website with video tutorials and segmented data downloads ( German efficiency !!) while the www.r-project.org website is functional but uses HTML 4.0 ( which is from the seventies.or the eighties. or whatever)
  • No, they wont charge you for it !!!

From the website –

Welcome!

KNIME, pronounced [naim], is a modular data exploration platform that enables the user to visually create data flows (often referred to as pipelines), selectively execute some or all analysis steps, and later investigate the results through interactive views on data and models.

KNIME was developed (and will continue to be expanded) by the Chair for Bioinformatics and Information Mining at the University of Konstanz, Germany. The group headed by Michael Berthold is also using KNIME for teaching and research at the University. Quite a number of new data analysis methods developed at the chair are integrated in KNIME. Let us know if you are looking for something in particular, not all of those modules are part of the standard KNIME release just yet…

KNIME base version already incorporates over 100 processing nodes for data I/O, preprocessing and cleansing, modelling, analysis and data mining as well as various interactive views, such as scatter plots, parallel coordinates and others. It integrates all analysis modules of the well known Weka data mining environment and additional plugins allow R-scripts to be run, offering access to a vast library of statistical routines.

KNIME is based on the Eclipse platform and, through its modular API, easily extensible.

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Coming up- Technical comparison of KNIME with Rapid Miner (http://rapid-i.com/content/view/26/82/) – which is similar in both free version and commercial licensing.These are both data mining rather than predictive analytics products.

I wish they host both KNIME as well as Rapid Miner on the Cloud using the Ohri Framework ( a joke which began on the SAS Consulting Group) on a Windows 64 OS , with remote desktop like functionality.So me just  logins , uploads the data,press button, wait for a sec and downloads the results.

Sigh  !!

( All screenshots in this post are acknowledged of www.knime.org)