Here are some economic predictions I made at the start of 2008 –
1) Recessions -especially recessions that are anticipated and planned for always look worst at the beginning.
2) While some can cut spending the usual way for Govts is supply side (fed rate cuts) for more money , and demand side(Keynes) stimulus spending
3) Political costs is always a key policy decider in economic slow downs. We may see more bi partisan ship as parties work together for welfare projects in an election year
Basically the only prediction that I got correct was Number 9 –
9) We will have more interesting 2008 than 2007. That’s the economist in me speaking. As Alan Greenspan wrote we will live in the age of turbulence.
In fact that was the only thing Alan and I got correct the whole year , though I did switch to Keynesian spending in June , that’s before Ben Bernanke did but about 15 years after Paul Krugman did.
Anyway here are some economic predictions for 2009 ( economists , even pretend ones like me are rather stubborn)
)0( Price of Oil and Commodities will rebound by end of quarter 1. This would also be impacted by the auto industry in 2 months time and any consolidation there.
1) Entertaintment business will continue to grow. It may thrive as people have more time and more reason to get cheered up.Expect more shift to the web though not in the degree expected.Online entertainment will further evolve. Expect more profitable online communities.
2) War focuses will shift from Iraq to Afghan-Pakistan ( it already has).Expect some more rumbles and surprises there.