Predictive Forecasting in Commercial Applications

Most organizations tend to have a sales plan or forecast for the next 1 year.This is done for internal planning as well as give guidance to financial investment analysts covering the listed company.

However a lot of organizations use simplistic linear models of

1) either growth based on previous history (Last year Sales * Factor of forecast (e.g 10 % growth in sales) -TIME SERIES APPROACH

OR

2) growth based on macro economic causal factors (e.g economy is in recession hence sales will grow by 3 %) REGRESSION BASED APPROACH and

3) A consensus of industrial factors (We have spare capacity of 10 % so we will likely slash prices and have sales growth of 2 % but profit growth of -3%) DELPHI BASED APPROACH (this is also based on bottoms up market feedback and top down sales pressure).

A better approach is to combine all these approaches in one or different models .

This can help build a much more robust forecasting model for organizations using nothing more than simple combination of excel cells.

The following model assumes only seven factors and tries to build a stable and relatively easy to understand forecast model.

Forecasted Sales for this quarter =

Historic Sales for this quarter last year *A1

+ Historic Average Sales for this quarter for past three -five years (based on industry cycle ups -downs)*A2

+ Historic Sales for this quarter/Actual Sales of Last Quarter( for seasonal factors )*A3

+Causal Factor 1 ( Eg. Outsourcing is likely to grow by 15 % in this year) *A4

+Causal Factor 2 (Foreign Exchange Movement.Dollar is likely to depreciate by 10 %)*A5

+ Causal Factor 3 (Our bench strength is likely to grow by 3 % in this quarter)*A6

+ Percentage Error Factor *A7 (There will always be +-5 to15 % error in forecasts.Capturing this error also helps provide a feedback loop for planning).

Here A1- A7 are constants

In order to get actual values of A1-A7 , run this a regression (use the add-in and tools menu in excel) on actual data for past three years quarters (keeping last six months seperate)

Then run the actual equation on last two quarters and check for actual error. If error exceeds the comfort level (+-3 % for critical industries and +-15 % for harder to predict industries) . Iterate the last two steps till you get a good equation.

Then substitute in the 7 factor predictive model to build your simple and robust sales plan for this quarter.

Happy forecasting !!!

Virtual Networking- Linkedin as a Case Study

I am Ajay Ohri,from Delhi ,India and I have been on Linkedin for almost a year now. I got an invite from an American client of mine who became friends with me. LinkedIn seemed a great way to keep in touch. As a data mining and analytics specialist , I was part of the SAS , SPSS and R groups (technical email groups in data mining). But something was missing. Thats right..the interactive touch that Linkedin increasingly provided. I have now 2580 contacts, get atleast 8 invitations every day , have 11 recommendations from professional collegues and have best answers in 2 questions .( ok, I am bad at the questions). These are some of the things I found help me grow my network and gain a lot by devoting 15 minutes of my time to online networking everyday.

1) Put up a nice professional photo – It helps people who have stumbled on your profile with a good impression.

2) Put all the companies and schools you have been to. Complete your profile. Then use the search feature to build up initial contacts.

3)  Ask and get atleast 1 recommendation per company. That should not be hard if you are a good  worker whom people remember.People with more recommendations are trusted and get more invites.Give honest and credible recommendations yourself.

4) Answer atleast one question a day belonging to your domain. Or Atleast ask 1 question. Ask atleast 1 question a week. That helps build up your noticeability.

5) Be an open networker- If you are open to sharing your email address (which is any ways available with a lot of people) you can be an open networker and join the Open Networkers and Linked In Open Networkers (LIONs)

6) Publicise your profile using the public profile feature. Use the link as an email signature.

7) Try and learn more about your area of work by going through questions. It helps build up skills. Accept all recruiters invites. They and your enhanced skills will help you in a rainy day in a tough economy.

8) Be humourous in your profile message (eg Ajay Shrugged …or Ajay is changing the world one mega byte a time). People love to network with humourous people.

9)Be sensitive to cultural differences when answering questions. Eastern and Western cultures think differently about what is private, public and what is rude.

10) Have fun doing this. Otherwise if it becomes a chore , like mowing the grass, it will remain unattented to and you will miss out on the free benefits of Linkedin.

11) Pass on forwards to help other people get jobs or get in contact. This will establish you as a good person to stay linked in too.

12) Join as many groups and associations that you find interesting. Start from your school alumni groups, then with groups of your friends and so on.Found a group. I founded two Decision Stats for data mining and statisticians and Creative Destruction for lateral thinkers.

Linked In help me get a contract for my firm, numerous inetrviews,domain specialists for technical help, and friends , and fortunately Linkedin allowed me access to fabulous people who did that.It helped me learn a language called R , which is open source and helped me give ideas to make two websites www.iwannacrib.com and www.decisionstats.com. Above all it gave me 2580 acquaintances whom I can fall back on in tougher times. Collectively they do help make a difference.

All the best for your online social networking. If Bill Gates can be on Linked In after retirement, then why can’t you ?

Surprising Hi5 and networking within social networks

Recently I visited my old account at Hi5 and was extremely surprised at the changes.


1) Much cleaner layout

2) and a lot of good looking applications (minus the Facebook Application Spam) with familiar faces from Rock You etc etc.

I guess the Google Social API seems to be working. Which leads me to ponder , since most people prefer to visit atmost 2-3 social networks , and will soon  have the ability to port material across social networks,

could there be a new wave of IPO’s and mergers and acquisitions in Social Networks to capture and consolidate audiences.

Much will depend upon Google itself (as it tries to lift the whole internet advertising industry all alone with a potential Yahoo deal)  or the Return of the Sith from Redmond who could buy , bully and  bludgeon their way into the new web 2.0 especially with Rich Internet Applications (like Silverlight from Microsoft coming) and Google facing anti trust scrutiny for a change.

Watch this space! Till then play Triumph on either My Space or FaceBook

 www.hi5.com

Obama battles Clinton over the Guamanians

Both Clinton and Obama say they’ve got the better health plan for Guamanians.

Obama said in an interview with Pacific Daily News that he would support reexamination of a $5.4 million Medicaid spending limit imposed on the territory. Clinton’s husband, former President Bill Clinton, told KUAM radio earlier that his wife would work to remove the cap.

Hillary Clinton also has called for Guamanians to be able to vote in presidential elections.

That was from a NY Times Story………

Now here is Iwanna crib’s perspective

If George W Bush called people from Greece as Grecians what would he call people from Guam.

Johnny McCain cant distinguish his Sunnis from his Shias but wants to fight one and ally with the other.

Can John Mc Cain distinguish Guamanians .Last heard he said he was held five years prisoner there. Only to tell he was misquoted by the f**kinf reporters.

Some nostalgic Yahoo features

1) Music Launch cast is the best free Radio on Yahoo messenger

2) My Yahoo is much better than iGoogle

3) Yahoo Groups were the first and still leading e-groups.

4) Yahoo messenger lost out to Skype and Gtalk but its now interchangeable with MSN contacts. The add-ins are great and the avatars are still unmatched. Plus add-ins that are twitter compatible, facebook reachable for status changes.Open Social should ensure some Facebook Games /Apps reach there too

5) The new Email look is a cross between Outlook and Gmail…but its cool.And better than hotmail/livemail.

6) Yahoo Buzz, Yahoo Answers are  good.So is Yahoo pictures.

7) The search engine ads are better left to Google.Thats underway taking out the last bottleneck.

8) Yahoo finance is still one of the best financial data sites.

9) Its still an old fashioned cluttered site…for nostalgia this is the best. Also has a host of options .Especially like Pipes.

No wonder Jerry Yang is squeezing Ballsmer of Micro-Soft for more money .

i-google.GIF       my-yahoo.GIF


Facebook has a cool change !!

After a rather big series on outsourcing, we are back reporting on technolgy.

Facebook now has chat available between contacts.

Yes it is quite light and fast.

No you might not voice chat as of now.

Yes the design is much better than Gtalk, Yahoo, Skype,Hotmail combined.

facebook-chat.GIF

I uploaded my entire Linked In list (2500 contacts ) (using export CSV function in Linkedin and upload contact file in Facebook) and sent them a facebook invite.

With a 10 % response rate and luckily 0 % no complaint rate  , I aim to chat with some of the top 250 professionals I know of, besides some fast aging batch mates.

Web 2.0 is cool ,huh !

Outsourcing Analytics to India: 1

Outsourcing -Some Facts

 

A study found that out of every 1 dollar outsourced, only 31 cents comes to the outsourced country. The rest is captured by the Western Company in terms of savings and dividends. Most of India’s outsourcing sector is directly and indirectly owned by Western private equity players, who also use their influence within client companies in the West to outsource work. In addition in some sectors outsourcing helps to bridge resources shortage gaps to make those domains sustainable. The excesses of outsourcing happens when middle management start outsourcing for a short term quarterly benefit, without retraining it’s workers and in order to get the tab of “successfully managed an outsourcing/transition process” on their resumes. To some part American tax policies are responsible for those excesses. Also countries that benefit from outsourcing become more stable allies and in turn provide emerging markets for Western Manufacturers. At best it can be termed as a transfer of value between Western workers to Western investors via outsourcing staff.

 

Outsourcing – What Works , What doesn’t

 

A healthy outsourcing project outsources only required number of projects, has proper time for transitioning, has an on site co coordinator, and is adequately priced. If the contract squeezes the vendor, the vendor may cut corners and drop quality (he has American investors to answer to!). If the price is too lavish, the outsourcer will be disappointed in lesser cost savings and the hidden costs especially traveling and training.

 

The worst type of outsourcing transition is some people will transition in three weeks what they have learnt in three years to a bunch of consultants flying in, and will then be fired. This leaves everyone confused on the vendor side especially as most transition projects end up doing most of the documentation themselves . The resentful employees (and rightly so) share the bare professional minimum information and there is no team work here.

 

The best outsourcing projects that I have seen work are ones in which the vendor team is treated as a member of the company that happens to sit in India, thus can provide round the clock coverage due to time zone differences. The vendors are usually eager to learn, and if the outsourcing team is secure in transferring knowledge they generally pass along the soft informal tricks and trades of the process as well (for e.g. do not use table A from DW X, use table B, as it is more accurate). These contracts are generally adequately priced as ell. Remember your vendor team gets approx 20 to 33 % of billings only (for 100 dollar invoice only 30 dollars will go the team salary), the rest goes in overheads, investor returns etc. So an adequate billing rate ensures that your of shore team has more food with some jam on the table, thus will stick with you longer. An important check is to ask from your vendor before the contract starts to give the exact ratio of billing to salaries, and also to give the promotion schedule for the team. Also ask for the names of the analysts and qualifications and actual time spent in vendor company to avoid window dressing by vendors.

 

 

Choosing the right vendor without burning your fingers

 

You may get confused or plain irritated at the vendor selection stage where every vendor claims to build the Taj Mahal on the moon for 20 $ a hour for you. One of the best techniques is to give some sample data/task to be done to multiple vendors, and then evaluate the top 3. Then go for a free two month pilot to see synergies and team capabilities. Always ask for names of analytics working on the project. Then award the project but with adequate penalties in an elaborate service level agreement and liability clauses, just to keep operational risk down.

 


What to outsource and what not: A stepwise approach

 

Don’t give your vendor more to chew than he can swallow. Ask the vendor for examples and not just slides on similar work. Give an old actual project done by your team as a test in the pilot above. A stepwise approach to outsourcing will help save you much more money in the long term.

 

Outsourcing in Data Mining and Analytics:Transitions

 

India , China and Eastern Europe have vast pools of statisticians and MBA s that can be utilized for data mining analytics. But outsourcing everything in your analytics project is , well ,its like throwing the baby out with the bath water.

 

Time intensive tasks like Data crunching, Data querying, Data pulling and cleaning , and running repetitive jobs should definitely be outsourced. An additional aspect is to get these tasks documented during the transition process for your own operational stability.

 

The next stage is to transition reporting, but only after you feel your vendor team has documented and is comfortable with the data universe. Since most vendor teams use Master’s degrees and advanced programmers you can also give incentives to them for creating an automation process rather than do the same task again and again which enables them to enhance billing.

 

 

Lastly you can outsource high value tasks like market basket analysis ,scoring models as well as credit models, but only after regular compliance training has been given. You can also ask your offshore team to do research on newer techniques that you never had the time to.

 

 

 

Data Security

For data security insist on an on site inspection or a suitable standard like ISO 27001 certification to keep sensitive data safe, with proper encryption (like PGP) for data exchanges. Also insist on certain legal training for your offshore team (and not just on the job training) and this could be in the form of certifications as well.

 

Insist on sharing all codes and logs from your vendor as your own intellectual property as this will ensure operational stability and quality assurance at all stages of the project and the contract.

 

Outsourcing in this manner enables systematic freeing up of valuable on site resources to business context and strategic tasks rather than low level tasks, thus enhancing their skill sets as well. Having adequate penalties (in terms of free credits) for service level agreement breaches will ensure high quality steady output.


Cutting software costs in outsourcing of analytics and data mining –

Some costs like software costs remain the same through the globe.

You can use the outsourcing transition to force some innovation, like insist 50 % of offshore team uses Open Office and Google Applications for first six months, and nearly half the team uses open source statistical tools like R.

 

Using newer softwares like WPS ( a base SAS clone ) for cutting down SAS and SPSS costs, open source tools like Linux for say 25 % of the offshore team’s systems can actually help you do a test and control on costs on your own team.

 

Having personally worked with all these softwares, an optimized approach can save you much more costs than you can imagine.

 

Cultural Differences, Communication and Tracking– Most Indians see Western culture from Hollywood movies so be prepared for some fun here. Try and speak slowly, and ask if you have been understood after you say a paragraph. Ask your offshore team to send you a meeting summary after each call, and ask them to send a schedule of work for the upcoming week to ensure adequate resource allocation.

 

You can insist on time sheets (log in –log out), since most outsourcing companies record this information anyways for their own purposes so it’s not a big deal. Eastern cultures tend to be hierarchical with emphasis on deferring to superior’s opinions so try and ask your offshore team to speak up their thoughts in time. Use of instant messengers like skype greatly helps streamline communication.

 

Remember, for better or for worse, outsourcing is here to stay in some form or the other. If you cannot beat it, then join it , and if you do it correctly you, and your company will gain and you will enjoy the process as well.