us elections – DECISION STATS

Obama battles Clinton over the Guamanians

Both Clinton and Obama say they’ve got the better health plan for Guamanians.

Obama said in an interview with Pacific Daily News that he would support reexamination of a $5.4 million Medicaid spending limit imposed on the territory. Clinton’s husband, former President Bill Clinton, told KUAM radio earlier that his wife would work to remove the cap.

Hillary Clinton also has called for Guamanians to be able to vote in presidential elections.

That was from a NY Times Story………

Now here is Iwanna crib’s perspective

If George W Bush called people from Greece as Grecians what would he call people from Guam.

Johnny McCain cant distinguish his Sunnis from his Shias but wants to fight one and ally with the other.

Can John Mc Cain distinguish Guamanians .Last heard he said he was held five years prisoner there. Only to tell he was misquoted by the f**kinf reporters.

The Nastiness Index

Reading about the latest back and forth and then back again rounds between not that conservative Republicans, conservative Republicans, liberal Democrats, not so liberal Democrats makes you wonder if there is some way of quantifying the daily dose of political news. If we can quantify the level of terror threat in color coding, can we create a blue and red nastiness index for quantifying the political debates in a country.

The Nastiness Index can be used to decribe political equilibrium in a country. eg in USA if the Index shows high blue , and less red it means the Democrats are pummeling the Republicans. If the Index shows low blue and low red, it means all is quiet. If it shows high red, and low blue , it means the opposition is down and the administration is up.Stock markets can use this index to quantify the level of political activity, inactivity and stability of elected governments.

If the nastiness index shows high blue and high red, it means its election time folks.

Politics in Analytics

Observers of American Electoral politics ,including the current Presidential Campaign would be struck by the sophisticated degree of analytics being involved. This includes the following –

1) Segmentation of likely percentage Response Rates (vote yes(1) , vote opponent (0)

based on

history of voting

response to stimuli (experience vs change)

ethnicity (black, white ,latino)

income groups (<40,000 USD ,>100000 USD)

education (college educated)

gender (male,female)

geography (rural ,urban,college town)

union affliation

and even coffee (latte drinkers etc 🙂 )

What is striking is that most of these variables like race, gender cannot be used for marketing anything else like credit cards, or financial services on charges of discrimination.

What could be really interesting is if they add credit bureau variables and create logistic models (and not just segmentation). Maybe by 2016, there will be a different category of analytics called Quantitative Political analytics.

–

Another note – What is similar between Ralph Nader , Chaos Theory and Butterfly effect.

Chaos theory states that future results can vary a lot based on slight changes in initial differences.

Butterfly Effect uses this to say a small event like butterfly fluttering in china can cause a big event like typhoon in the US.

Ralph Nader entering the race in 2000 got 90000 votes in Florida, mostly to be siphoned away from Al Gore , who lost Florida and the elections by less than 1000 votes.

Al Gore was against Iraq war since the beginning and had he been President maybe the world would have been greener and no war in Iraq. maybe. No offense meant to anyone.

Howard Dean screaming or Bill Clinton calling Obama as similar to Jesse Jackson’s wins (which is analytically and quantitatively true) or Hillary crying in Iowa , can be similar butterfly effects.No offense meant to anyone.