Author: Ajay Ohri

http://about.me/ajayohri

Automating Regression Models :KXEN

Note : I have used KXEN both for modeling internet leads in 2008 as well as for consumer finance propensity models in 2006.These  are my personal views.

An extremely useful software and to my surprise very much under used in Industry is KXEN. It can be used for building regression models, time series models as well clustering models as well. I have used it primarily for regression models and clustering though. What KXEN does is it uses all the rules that modelers make for adding, dropping , and manipulating variables and automates them . It then produces the exported model code into PMML, SAS, SPSS and even SQL code for direct model execution. The validity of the model is tested by the modeler using a nice variety of graphs.The software uses a properietary algorithm called SRM.

The latest version is version 5 and it is available here http://www.kxen.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=61&Itemid=166

 

 

It is one of the best automated modelings I have used and been trained in, so if you are interested you can try an evaluation version here. The support team is excellent , and so are the sales chap ( they neither oversell nor undermine the competition) .It can cut down on both modeling time as well training time for learning the model. If combined with WPS or R to clean data in the initial stage it is good solution for renting or buying especially for cost savvy businesses.

  The only caveat if at all is it needs data to be cleaned  for formatting and variable type issues before entering for modeling, but that can be easily done.

Softwares for creating a Virtual Office

Would you like to work from home and see your kid when they are actually kids. Or would you rather commute to office, wasting some carbon fueled oil, and time in traffic.

 

Here are some softwares for creating a virtual office from home. if your organization does not have a work from home policy you can refer to the advantages section

 

Advantages of A Virtual Office

1) Zero company overheads – Especially leased rent space that sells by the foot.Save building costs rather than retrench employees.

2) Greater happiness for employees – Most employees prefer it. It also acts as a retention barrier.

3) Lower Energy costs – Employees are more energy conscious while working from home computers rather than offices with bright lighting.

4) Lower Transportation costs for employee

5) Lower Communication costs for employer ( see below).

6) Much lower IT costs

Disadvantages of A Virtual Office

1) Zero company oversight or supervision- When is the employee slacking off. Solution -End of Week Reports.

2) Greater risks if data breaches – Not if you use the softwares below.

3) Loss of Face to Face feeling – Not if you video conference. And you can always have meetings once a week or a month .

Infrastructure for a Virtual Office.

1) Broadband internet

2) VPN for secure connectivity and daily logs of data in and data out on the computer used. ( A good example of a VPN client I have used is

SafeNet SoftRemoteLT Version 10.7.5 (04/2006) ©2006 SafeNet, Inc.

3) VOIP communication -Like www.skype.com

4) Collobrative Software

Google Sites for documentation . http://sites.google.com

Google Docs http://docs.google.com/ Open Office (www.openoffice.org)  for Office Productivity software (if you want lower software costs as well)

www.gotomeeting.com or Citrix (www.citrix.com) for demonstrations or virtual meeting

Open Source Solutions Like R ( www.r-project.org) with GUI Rattle (www.togaware.com for analytical solutions.

 

5) Employee Owned PC ( remember Activity Log is enabled) with Speakers, Headphones and a Webcam.

6) All computation can be done on remote servers (Microsoft Windows Terminal Server or Better Still X Windows Server ) connected with VPN and Remote Desktop (embedded in Windows). This is thus even safer data security than data on emploee’s PC in office.The remote servers are managed by virtual teams of vendors. For huge data requirements try Amazon and www.rightscale.com

Cost of a Virtual Office is virtual ( or zero). There are obvious benefits for both cost cutting employers and employees.

So what’s stopping you from asking your HR manager and your CEO for a Virtual Office Today.

ps- I dont know how to create a Virtual Office with a Mac.yet.Watch this space.

Happy Holidays and a Bonus Tech Cartoon

Why Google Chrome has a bad market share ?

Google Chrome has a less than 1% market share despite being technically advanced, and open source. One reason is incompatibilty with Adobe products particularly Shockwave.The irony is that software is used mostly for running ads- so Google Chrome crashes many times with those ads.

Here is another reason, Microsoft takes its own sweet time building up compatabilty for its share of the internet for the new browser. Did you say anti-trust ? I say in God we trust and here below is the data.

image

A Search Engine for Non Profits

The season of Joy and Giving is here. And in time for that is a website that specifically focuses in to helping people find genuine non profits from others.

Its from www.guidestar.com and it helps you search whether a non -profit is . It also is the website powering non profits search behind Facebook Causes.

 

So use it ..its the season and plenty of people out there needing help.

 

A Return to Keynes

I first wrote about the need to adopt Keynesian stimulus spending on June 25, 2008 here at http://www.decisionstats.com/?p=143 instead of just tinkering with monetary rates to curb inflation. I stand both vindicated as well defeated. Vindication because finally the US as well Indian government have accepted the need for stimulus spending to create jobs, inflation being a proxy of them high fuel prices and note the following lines -I wrote them on June 25,2008 .

 

By blindly following Milton Friedman ’s economic monetary policies of money control, the central banks are ignoring the fundamentals of the current crisis in which essential commodities are having increased prices, and growth is threated by global and financial market failures. Ironically these are conditions that have taken place almost 79 years ago in the macro economic event called Great Depression.

 

So why the defeat .Well it is one thing to accurately  predict macro economic stress , and another to be affected by it. With nearly 6.7 % un-employment and another 12-14 % under employment ( people who have stopped looking for work or are forced to be part time workers ), thats almost one in every five American adult who is not able to contribute productively. No wonder almost one in every ten households is in mortgage default, almost assuming two earning members per household on the average. As a data consultant primarily focused on the North American market I have lot more data but lesser pipeline of clients to look for.

 

Layoffs give individual firms temporary cash flow relief but that relief is temporary as it overall reduces the capacity of the economy to absorb goods and services. Thus reduced supplies are almost inevitably followed by reduced demand ( note the latest retail and automobile sales numbers).Indeed tax policies should be tweaked to give latoff aggressive companies lesser benefit than conservative companies- as the government loses revenue from the missing income taxes.

 

In India, the central bank has again stuck to more of monetary policy and less stimulus relief despite the presence of large foreign exchange reserves ( which have grown almsot 20 % in value thanks to the rupee depreciating against the dollar).Thus it is not surprising that banks have frozen lending to automobiles and continue with higher rates as they stick to higher deposit rates and cautious ALM policies.

The projected growth of Indian GDP at 6.5 % is much lower than 8-9 % earlier and is likely to be even lesser.

The brighter side- the new US administration seems aware of the challenge. Unlike other superpowers in history the United States might be the only one whose economic boom is almost always shared among nations ( Europe after World War 2) and later on Asia thanks to offshoring.With job creation and spending as priority sectors this returns the US economy to Keynesian spending ( though it is marketed as being similar to the Replublican President EisenHower’s highway initiative to get more Bi-Partisan support)

And India is having elections next year which in the wake of terror attacks and an angry public might lead to higher turnout especially among the literate and urban masses and greater responsiveness .

Another surprise could be the technology sector as this sector has sprung more innovation than anyone. As more and more people start startups particularly in Bangalore , and lesser VC money to choose from – online B2C sales could also be booming thanks to lower costs in aggregated supply management.

 

Disclaimer- These are my personal views.

Apologies for the typos- my 1 yr old son broke the keyboard and some keys were missing the placeholders.