Hypothesis testing is the use of statistics to determine the probability that a given hypothesis is true. The usual process of hypothesis testing consists of four steps.
- Formulate the null hypothesis (commonly, that the observations are the result of pure chance) and the alternative hypothesis (commonly, that the observations show a real effect combined with a component of chance variation).
from http://mathworld.wolfram.com/HypothesisTesting.html
Now let us take this way of thinking to the recent elections. Multiple scenarios can be tested.
- Clinton Campaign was bad in cyber security and cyber activist/ hackers breached both them as security of state and as candidate to highlight lack of cyber security
- Clinton as wife of ex President was not suitable to the ultra liberal cyber activists as conducive to democracy (ie. Bush,Clinton,Clinton,Bush,Bush,Obama,Obama,Clinton– would have been the Presidential roll call)
- Sustained hacking by cyber activists is also true for certain opponents ( Clinton had been a key opponent of Manning, Snowden et al)
- State players including intelligence agencies usually keep an arm’s length distance to maintain plausible deniability
- The CIA and NYTimes were able to firmly pinpoint the Russian Govt backed hackers only a few days after elections even though these activities seemed to have gone over a few years
- The FBI was investigating the Clinton (not the Trumps) for irresponsible cyber security and publicly said BEFORE elections
- Both FBI and CIA will see drastic personnel and leadership changes in a new adminsitration
- Where is the log data for breach of networks by Russian IP addresses (which does not mean they are in Russia- remember Tor)? Why cant it be shown publicly? Why cant charges be filed in a US court for illegal activity
- Quis custodiet ipsos custodes? Who guards the guardians of American cyber space. Even though the US has the largest conventional and nuclear military- do the recent incidents show a colossal underinvestment in cyber warfare and cyber defence by the Pentagon
- In God, We trust. Every one else must bring data. Currently the whole hacking, server debate is more like an episode of Big Bang Theory combined with Hackers. Data can and should be published ( just like Enron data was published)
- A better statistician /hacker than me can then formulate the hypothesis on who was responsible for breaching and releasing the information from DNC
DECISION STATS 