## ROC Curve

ROC Curve is a nice modeling concept to know as it will used practically in nearly all models

irrespective of spoefic technique and irrespective of statistical software.

We use the Wikipedia for referring to easy to implement statistics rather than crusty

thick books which seem prohibitely dense and opaque to outsiders

-This is how you define the ROC Curve.

actual value
p n total
prediction
outcome
p’ True
Positive
False
Positive
P’
n’ False
Negative
True
Negative
N’
total P N

true positive (TP)

eqv. with hit
true negative (TN)
eqv. with correct rejection
false positive (FP)
eqv. with false alarm, Type I error
false negative (FN)
eqv. with miss, Type II error true positive rate (TPR)
eqv. with hit rate, recall, sensitivity
TPR = TP / P = TP / (TP + FN)
false positive rate (FPR)
eqv. with false alarm rate, fall-out
FPR = FP / N = FP / (FP + TN)
accuracy (ACC)
ACC = (TP + TN) / (P + N)
specificity (SPC)
SPC = TN / (FP + TN) = 1 ? FPR
positive predictive value (PPV)
eqv. with precision
PPV = TP / (TP + FP)

Here is a good java enabled page to calculate the ROC Curve.