Recession in 2008

2 cents /rupees on the economic slow-uh-down in the US (economy is resilient ,tax cuts ,blah blah!)

1) Recessions -especially recessions that are anticipated and planned for always look worst at the beginning.

2) While some can cut spending the usual way for Govts is supply side (fed  rate cuts) for more money  , and demand side(Keynes) stimulus spending

3) Political costs is always a key policy decider in economic slow downs. We may see more bi partisan ship as parties work together for welfare projects in an election year

4) Costs of War are likely to come down in 2008, Health Care will be reformed (pre or post) election, and Microsoft-yahoo consolidation deals are what makes slowdown exciting for tech people especially in Web 2.0 analytics

5) Credit costs will come down , and foreclosures  on mortgages cannot increase beyond a political threshold. Expect more respect to risk analytics from now on in financial services .Job layoffs could lead to more rather than less consultants.

6) The last slowdown was due to tech meltdown and an economic disruptive event/tragedy. This one is cyclical and will be less severe.

7) Expect some slowdown in outsourcing (I am India based 😦 )  and China based exports due to a) dollar depreciation and
inflation catching up in Asia c) 2008 Political sensitivities

8) Windows Vista may continue to slow your computer  down. Google phone software may be new innovator on your mobile. Expect more mashable technologies (from SAS ??) . Stand alone platforms will have to mash with others ,and that too online and faster.Consultants may have to learn more than one platform .eg. PMML ,R ???

9) We will have more interesting 2008 than 2007. That’s the economist in me speaking. As Alan Greenspan wrote we will live in the age of turbulence.

10) Expect more environmental analytics related work opening up in some time.

Author: Ajay Ohri

http://about.me/ajayohri

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