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Top 7 Business Strategy Models

UPDATED POST- Some Models I use for Business Strategy- to analyze the huge reams of qualitative and uncertain data that business generates. I have added a bonus the Business canvas

  1. Porters 5 forces Model-To analyze industries
  2. Business Canvas
  3. BCG Matrix- To analyze Product Portfolios
  4. Porters Diamond Model- To analyze locations
  5. McKinsey 7 S Model-To analyze teams
  6. Gernier Theory- To analyze growth of organization
  7. Herzberg Hygiene Theory- To analyze soft aspects of individuals
  8. Marketing Mix Model- To analyze marketing mix.

(more…)

Book Review- Machine Learning for Hackers

This is review of the fashionably named book Machine Learning for Hackers by Drew Conway and John Myles White (O’Reilly ). The book is about hacking code in R.

 

The preface introduces the reader to the authors conception of what machine learning and hacking is all about. If the name of the book was machine learning for business analytsts or data miners, I am sure the content would have been unchanged though the popularity (and ambiguity) of the word hacker can often substitute for its usefulness. Indeed the many wise and learned Professors of statistics departments through out the civilized world would be mildly surprised and bemused by their day to day activities as hacking or teaching hackers. The book follows a case study and example based approach and uses the GGPLOT2 package within R programming almost to the point of ignoring any other native graphics system based in R. It can be quite useful for the aspiring reader who wishes to understand and join the booming market for skilled talent in statistical computing.

Chapter 1 has a very useful set of functions for data cleansing and formatting. It walks you through the basics of formatting based on dates and conditions, missing value and outlier treatment and using ggplot package in R for graphical analysis. The case study used is an Infochimps dataset with 60,000 recordings of UFO sightings. The case study is lucid, and done at a extremely helpful pace illustrating the powerful and flexible nature of R functions that can be used for data cleansing.The chapter mentions text editors and IDEs but fails to list them in a tabular format, while listing several other tables like Packages used in the book. It also jumps straight from installation instructions to functions in R without getting into the various kinds of data types within R or specifying where these can be referenced from. It thus assumes a higher level of basic programming understanding for the reader than the average R book.

Chapter 2 discusses data exploration, and has a very clear set of diagrams that explain the various data summary operations that are performed routinely. This is an innovative approach and will help students or newcomers to the field of data analysis. It introduces the reader to type determination functions, as well different kinds of encoding. The introduction to creating functions is quite elegant and simple , and numerical summary methods are explained adequately. While the chapter explains data exploration with the help of various histogram options in ggplot2 , it fails to create a more generic framework for data exploration or rules to assist the reader in visual data exploration in non standard data situations. While the examples are very helpful for a reader , there needs to be slightly more depth to step out of the example and into a framework for visual data exploration (or references for the same). A couple of case studies however elaborately explained cannot do justice to the vast field of data exploration and especially visual data exploration.

Chapter 3 discussed binary classification for the specific purpose for spam filtering using a dataset from SpamAssassin. It introduces the reader to the naïve Bayes classifier and the principles of text mining suing the tm package in R. Some of the example codes could have been better commented for easier readability in the book. Overall it is quite a easy tutorial for creating a naïve Bayes classifier even for beginners.

Chapter 4 discusses the issues in importance ranking and creating recommendation systems specifically in the case of ordering email messages into important and not important. It introduces the useful grepl, gsub, strsplit, strptime ,difftime and strtrim functions for parsing data. The chapter further introduces the reader to the concept of log (and affine) transformations in a lucid and clear way that can help even beginners learn this powerful transformation concept. Again the coding within this chapter is sparsely commented which can cause difficulties to people not used to learn reams of code. ( it may have been part of the code attached with the book, but I am reading an electronic book and I did not find an easy way to go back and forth between the code and the book). The readability of the chapters would be further enhanced by the use of flow charts explaining the path and process followed than overtly verbose textual descriptions running into multiple pages. The chapters are quite clearly written, but a helpful visual summary can help in both revising the concepts and elucidate the approach taken further.A suggestion for the authors could be to compile the list of useful functions they introduce in this book as a sort of reference card (or Ref Card) for R Hackers or atleast have a chapter wise summary of functions, datasets and packages used.

Chapter 5 discusses linear regression , and it is a surprising and not very good explanation of regression theory in the introduction to regression. However the chapter makes up in practical example what it oversimplifies in theory. The chapter on regression is not the finest chapter written in this otherwise excellent book. Part of this is because of relative lack of organization- correlation is explained after linear regression is explained. Once again the lack of a function summary and a process flow diagram hinders readability and a separate section on regression metrics that help make a regression result good or not so good could be a welcome addition. Functions introduced include lm.

Chapter 6 showcases Generalized Additive Model (GAM) and Polynomial Regression, including an introduction to singularity and of over-fitting. Functions included in this chapter are transform, and poly while the package glmnet is also used here. The chapter also introduces the reader formally to the concept of cross validation (though examples of cross validation had been introduced in earlier chapters) and regularization. Logistic regression is also introduced at the end in this chapter.

Chapter 7 is about optimization. It describes error metric in a very easy to understand way. It creates a grid by using nested loops for various values of intercept and slope of a regression equation and computing the sum of square of errors. It then describes the optim function in detail including how it works and it’s various parameters. It introduces the curve function. The chapter then describes ridge regression including definition and hyperparameter lamda. The use of optim function to optimize the error in regression is useful learning for the aspiring hacker. Lastly it describes a case study of breaking codes using the simplistic Caesar cipher, a lexical database and the Metropolis method. Functions introduced in this chapter include .Machine$double.eps .

Chapter 8 deals with Principal Component Analysis and unsupervised learning. It uses the ymd function from lubridate package to convert string to date objects, and the cast function from reshape package to further manipulate the structure of data. Using the princomp functions enables PCA in R.The case study creates a stock market index and compares the results with the Dow Jones index.

Chapter 9 deals with Multidimensional Scaling as well as clustering US senators on the basis of similarity in voting records on legislation .It showcases matrix multiplication using %*% and also the dist function to compute distance matrix.

Chapter 10 has the subject of K Nearest Neighbors for recommendation systems. Packages used include class ,reshape and and functions used include cor, function and log. It also demonstrates creating a custom kNN function for calculating Euclidean distance between center of centroids and data. The case study used is the R package recommendation contest on Kaggle. Overall a simplistic introduction to creating a recommendation system using K nearest neighbors, without getting into any of the prepackaged packages within R that deal with association analysis , clustering or recommendation systems.

Chapter 11 introduces the reader to social network analysis (and elements of graph theory) using the example of Erdos Number as an interesting example of social networks of mathematicians. The example of Social Graph API by Google for hacking are quite new and intriguing (though a bit obsolete by changes, and should be rectified in either the errata or next edition) . However there exists packages within R that should be atleast referenced or used within this chapter (like TwitteR package that use the Twitter API and ROauth package for other social networks). Packages used within this chapter include Rcurl, RJSONIO, and igraph packages of R and functions used include rbind and ifelse. It also introduces the reader to the advanced software Gephi. The last example is to build a recommendation engine for whom to follow in Twitter using R.

Chapter 12 is about model comparison and introduces the concept of Support Vector Machines. It uses the package e1071 and shows the svm function. It also introduces the concept of tuning hyper parameters within default algorithms . A small problem in understanding the concepts is the misalignment of diagram pages with the relevant code. It lastly concludes with using mean square error as a method for comparing models built with different algorithms.

 

Overall the book is a welcome addition in the library of books based on R programming language, and the refreshing nature of the flow of material and the practicality of it’s case studies make this a recommended addition to both academic and corporate business analysts trying to derive insights by hacking lots of heterogeneous data.

Have a look for yourself at-
http://shop.oreilly.com/product/0636920018483.do

Text Mining Barack Obama using R #rstats

  • We copy and paste President Barack Obama’s “Yes We Can” speech in a text document and read it in. For a word cloud we need a dataframe with two columns, one with words and the the other with frequency.We read in the transcript from “http://politics.nuvvo.com/lesson/4678-transcript-of-obamas-speech-yes-we-can” and paste in the file located in the local directory- C:/Users/KUs/Desktop/new. Note tm is a powerful package and will read ALL the text documents within the particular folder

> library(tm)

>library(wordcloud)

> txt2=”C:/Users/KUs/Desktop/new”

> b=Corpus(DirSource(txt2), readerControl = list(language = “eng”))

> b<- tm_map(b, tolower) #Changes case to lower case

> b<- tm_map(b, stripWhitespace) #Strips White Space

> b <- tm_map(b, removePunctuation) #Removes Punctuation

> tdm <- TermDocumentMatrix(b)

> m1 <- as.matrix(tdm)

> v1<- sort(rowSums(m1),decreasing=TRUE)

> d1<- data.frame(word = names(v1),freq=v1)

> wordcloud(d1$word,d1$freq)

Now it seems we need to remove some of the very commonly occuring words like “the” and “and”. We are not using the standard stopwords in english (the tm package provides that see Chapter 13 Text Mining case studies), as the words “we” and “can” are also included .

> b <- tm_map(b, removeWords, c(“and”,”the”)) # We remove the words “and” and “the”.> tdm <- TermDocumentMatrix(b)

> m1 <- as.matrix(tdm)

> v1<- sort(rowSums(m1),decreasing=TRUE)

> d1<- data.frame(word = names(v1),freq=v1)

> wordcloud(d1$word,d1$freq)

But let’s see how the wordcloud changes if we remove all English Stopwords.

> b <- tm_map(b, removeWords, stopwords(“english”)) #Removes Stop Words

and rerunning the code after this

> tdm <- TermDocumentMatrix(b)

> m1 <- as.matrix(tdm)

> v1<- sort(rowSums(m1),decreasing=TRUE)

> d1<- data.frame(word = names(v1),freq=v1)

> wordcloud(d1$word,d1$freq)

 

and you can draw your own conclusions from the content of this famous speech based on your political preferences.

Politicians can give interesting speeches but they may be full of simple sounding words…..

 

Citation-

1. Ingo Feinerer (2012). tm: Text Mining Package. R package version0.5-7.1.

Ingo Feinerer, Kurt Hornik, and David Meyer (2008). Text Mining
Infrastructure in R. Journal of Statistical Software 25/5. URL:
http://www.jstatsoft.org/v25/i05/

2. Ian Fellows (2012). wordcloud: Word Clouds. R package version 2.0.

http://CRAN.R-project.org/package=wordcloud

3. You can see more than 100 of Obama’s speeches at http://obamaspeeches.com/

Quote- numbers dont lie, people do.

.

Google Plus API- statistical text mining anyone

For the past year and two I have noticed a lot of statistical analysis using #rstats /R on unstructured text generated in real time by the social network Twitter. From an analytic point of view , Google Plus is an interesting social network , as it is a social network that is new and arrived after the analytic tools are relatively refined. It is thus an interesting use case for evolution of people behavior measured globally AFTER analytic tools in text mining are evolved and we can thus measure how people behave and that behavior varies as the social network and its user interface evolves.

And it would also be  a nice benchmark to do sentiment analysis across multiple social networks.

Some interesting use cases of using Twitter that have been used in R.

  • Using R to search Twitter for analysis
http://www.franklincenterhq.org/2429/using-r-to-search-twitter-for-analysis/
  • Text Data Mining With Twitter And R
  • TWITTER FROM R… SURE, WHY NOT!
  • A package called TwitteR
  • slides from my R tutorial on Twitter text mining #rstats
  • Generating graphs of retweets and @-messages on Twitter using R and Gephi
But with Google Plus API now active

The Console lets you see and manage the following project information:

  • Activated APIs - Activate one or more APIs to enable traffic monitoring, filtering, and billing, and API-specific pages for your project. Read more about activating APIs here.
  • Traffic information - The Console reports traffic information for each activated API. Additionally, you can cap or filter usage by API. Read more about traffic reporting and request filtering here.
  • Billing information - When you activate billing, your activated APIs can exceed the courtesy usage quota. Usage fees are billed to the Google Checkout account that you specify. Read more about billing here.
  • Project keys - Each project is identified by either an API key or an OAuth 2.0 token. Use this key/token in your API requests to identify the project, in order to record usage data, enforce your filtering restrictions, and bill usage to the proper project. You can use the Console to generate or revoke API keys or OAuth 2.0 certificates to use in your application. Read more about keys here.
  • Team members - You can specify additional members with read, write, or ownership access to this project’s Console page. Read more about team members here.
Google+ API Courtesy limit: 1,000 queries/day

Effective limits:

API Per-User Limit Used Courtesy Limit
Google+ API 5.0 requests/second/user 0% 1,000 queries/day
API Calls
Most of the Google+ API follows a RESTful API design, meaning that you use standard HTTP methods to retrieve and manipulate resources. For example, to get the profile of a user, you might send an HTTP request like:

GET https://www.googleapis.com/plus/v1/people/userId

Common Parameters

Different API methods require parameters to be passed either as part of the URL path or as query parameters. Additionally, there are a few parameters that are common to all API endpoints. These are all passed as optional query parameters.

Parameter Name

Value

Description

callback

string

Specifies a JavaScript function that will be passed the response data for using the API with JSONP.

fields

string

Selector specifying which fields to include in a partial response.

key

string

API key. Your API key identifies your project and provides you with API access, quota, and reports. Required unless you provide an OAuth 2.0 token.

access_token

string

OAuth 2.0 token for the current user. Learn more about OAuth.

prettyPrint

boolean

If set to “true”, data output will include line breaks and indentation to make it more readable. If set to “false”, unnecessary whitespace is removed, reducing the size of the response. Defaults to “true”.

userIp

string

Identifies the IP address of the end user for whom the API call is being made. This allows per-user quotas to be enforced when calling the API from a server-side application. Learn more about Capping Usage.

Data Formats

Resources in the Google+ API are represented using JSON data formats. For example, retrieving a user’s profile may result in a response like:

{
  "kind": "plus#person",
  "id": "118051310819094153327",
  "displayName": "Chirag Shah",
  "url": "https://plus.google.com/118051310819094153327",
  "image": {
    "url": "https://lh5.googleusercontent.com/-XnZDEoiF09Y/AAAAAAAAAAI/AAAAAAAAYCI/7fow4a2UTMU/photo.jpg"
  }
}

Common Properties

While each type of resource will have its own unique representation, there are a number of common properties that are found in almost all resource representations.

Property Name

Value

Description

displayName

string

This is the name of the resource, suitable for displaying to a user.

id

string

This property uniquely identifies a resource. Every resource of a given kind will have a unique id. Even though an id may sometimes look like a number, it should always be treated as a string.

kind

string

This identifies what kind of resource a JSON object represents. This is particularly useful when programmatically determining how to parse an unknown object.

url

string

This is the primary URL, or permalink, for the resource.

Pagination

In requests that can respond with potentially large collections, such as Activities list, each response contains a limited number of items, set by maxResults(default: 20). Each response also contains a nextPageToken property. To obtain the next page of items, you pass this value of nextPageToken to the pageTokenproperty of the next request. Repeat this process to page through the full collection.

For example, calling Activities list returns a response with nextPageToken:

{
  "kind": "plus#activityFeed",
  "title": "Plus Public Activities Feed",
  "nextPageToken": "CKaEL",
  "items": [
    {
      "kind": "plus#activity",
      "id": "123456789",
      ...
    },
    ...
  ]
  ...
}

To get the next page of activities, pass the value of this token in with your next Activities list request:

https://www.googleapis.com/plus/v1/people/me/activities/public?pageToken=CKaEL

As before, the response to this request includes nextPageToken, which you can pass in to get the next page of results. You can continue this cycle to get new pages — for the last page, “nextPageToken” will be absent.

 

it would be interesting the first wave of analysis on this new social network and see if it is any different from others, if at all.
After all, an API is only as good as the analysis and applications  that can be done on the data it provides

 

HIGHLIGHTS from REXER Survey :R gives best satisfaction

Simple graph showing hierarchical clustering. ...

Image via Wikipedia

A Summary report from Rexer Analytics Annual Survey

 

HIGHLIGHTS from the 4th Annual Data Miner Survey (2010):

 

•   FIELDS & GOALS: Data miners work in a diverse set of fields.  CRM / Marketing has been the #1 field in each of the past four years.  Fittingly, “improving the understanding of customers”, “retaining customers” and other CRM goals are also the goals identified by the most data miners surveyed.

 

•   ALGORITHMS: Decision trees, regression, and cluster analysis continue to form a triad of core algorithms for most data miners.  However, a wide variety of algorithms are being used.  This year, for the first time, the survey asked about Ensemble Models, and 22% of data miners report using them.
A third of data miners currently use text mining and another third plan to in the future.

 

•   MODELS: About one-third of data miners typically build final models with 10 or fewer variables, while about 28% generally construct models with more than 45 variables.

 

•   TOOLS: After a steady rise across the past few years, the open source data mining software R overtook other tools to become the tool used by more data miners (43%) than any other.  STATISTICA, which has also been climbing in the rankings, is selected as the primary data mining tool by the most data miners (18%).  Data miners report using an average of 4.6 software tools overall.  STATISTICA, IBM SPSS Modeler, and R received the strongest satisfaction ratings in both 2010 and 2009.

 

•   TECHNOLOGY: Data Mining most often occurs on a desktop or laptop computer, and frequently the data is stored locally.  Model scoring typically happens using the same software used to develop models.  STATISTICA users are more likely than other tool users to deploy models using PMML.

 

•   CHALLENGES: As in previous years, dirty data, explaining data mining to others, and difficult access to data are the top challenges data miners face.  This year data miners also shared best practices for overcoming these challenges.  The best practices are available online.

 

•   FUTURE: Data miners are optimistic about continued growth in the number of projects they will be conducting, and growth in data mining adoption is the number one “future trend” identified.  There is room to improve:  only 13% of data miners rate their company’s analytic capabilities as “excellent” and only 8% rate their data quality as “very strong”.

 

Please contact us if you have any questions about the attached report or this annual research program.  The 5th Annual Data Miner Survey will be launching next month.  We will email you an invitation to participate.

 

Information about Rexer Analytics is available at www.RexerAnalytics.com. Rexer Analytics continues their impressive journey see http://www.rexeranalytics.com/Clients.html

|My only thought- since most data miners are using multiple tools including free tools as well as paid software, Perhaps a pie chart of market share by revenue and volume would be handy.

Also some ideas on comparing diverse data mining projects by data size, or complexity.

 

PAW Videos

A message from Predictive Analytics World on  newly available videos. It has many free videos as well so you can check them out.

Predictive Analytics World March 2011 in San Francisco

Access PAW DC Session Videos Now

Predictive Analytics World is pleased to announce on-demand access to the videos of PAW Washington DC, October 2010, including over 30 sessions and keynotes that you may view at your convenience. Access this leading predictive analytics content online now:

View the PAW DC session videos online

Register by January 18th and receive $150 off the full 2-day conference program videos (enter code PAW150 at checkout)

Trial videos – view the following for no charge:

Select individual conference sessions, or recognize savings by registering for access to one or two full days of sessions. These on-demand videos deliver PAW DC right to your desk, covering hot topics and advanced methods such as:

Social data 

Text mining

Search marketing

Risk management

Survey analysis

Consumer privacy

Sales force optimization

Response & cross-sell

Recommender systems

Featuring experts such as:
Usama Fayyad, Ph.D.
CEO, Open Insights Former Chief Data Officer, Yahoo!

Andrew Pole
Sr Mgr, Media/DB Mktng
Target
View Keynote for Free

John F. Elder, Ph.D.
CEO and Founder
Elder Research

Bruno Aziza
Director, Worldwide Strategy Lead, BI
Microsoft

Eric Siegel, Ph.D.
Conference Chair
Predictive Analytics World

PAW DC videos feature over 25 speakers with case studies from leading enterprises such as: CIBC, CEB, Forrester, Macy’s, MetLife, Microsoft, Miles Kimball, Monster.com, Oracle, Paychex, SunTrust, Target, UPMC, Xerox, Yahoo!, YMCA, and more.

How video access works:

View Slides on the Left See & Hear Speaker in the Right Window

Sign up by January 18 for immediate video access and $150 discount


San Francisco
March 14-15, 2011
Washington DC
October, 2011
London
November, 2011
Contact Us

Produced by:

 

Session Gallery: Day 1 of 2

Viewing (17) Sessions of (31)

 

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Keynote: Five Ways Predictive Analytics Cuts Enterprise Risk  

Eric Siegel, Ph.D., Program Chair, Predictive Analytics World

All business is an exercise in risk management. All organizations would benefit from measuring, tracking and computing risk as a core process, much like insurance companies do.

Predictive analytics does the trick, one customer at a time. This technology is a data-driven means to compute the risk each customer will defect, not respond to an expensive mailer, consume a retention discount even if she were not going to leave in the first place, not be targeted for a telephone solicitation that would have landed a sale, commit fraud, or become a “loss customer” such as a bad debtor or an insurance policy-holder with high claims.

In this keynote session, Dr. Eric Siegel reveals:

- Five ways predictive analytics evolves your enterprise to reduce risk

- Hidden sources of risk across operational functions

- What every business should learn from insurance companies

- How advancements have reversed the very meaning of fraud

- Why “man + machine” teams are greater than the sum of their parts for enterprise decision support

Length – 00:45:57 | Email to a Colleague

Price: $195

 

 

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Play video of session: Platinum Sponsor Presentation, Analytics: The Beauty of Diversity
Platinum Sponsor Presentation: Analytics – The Beauty of Diversity 

Anne H. Milley, Senior Director of Analytic Strategy, Worldwide Product Marketing, SAS

Analytics contributes to, and draws from, multiple disciplines. The unifying theme of “making the world a better place” is bred from diversity. For instance, the same methods used in econometrics might be used in market research, psychometrics and other disciplines. In a similar way, diverse paradigms are needed to best solve problems, reveal opportunities and make better decisions. This is why we evolve capabilities to formulate and solve a wide range of problems through multiple integrated languages and interfaces. Extending that, we have provided integration with other languages so that users can draw on the disciplines and paradigms needed to best practice their craft.

Length – 20:11 | Email to a Colleague

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Play video of session: Gold Sponsor Presentation Predictive Analytics Accelerate Insight for Financial Services
Gold Sponsor Presentation: Predictive Analytics Accelerate Insight for Financial Services 

Finbarr Deely, Director of Business Development,ParAccel

Financial services organizations face immense hurdles in maintaining profitability and building competitive advantage. Financial services organizations must perform “what-if” scenario analysis, identify risks, and detect fraud patterns. The advanced analytic complexity required often makes such analysis slow and painful, if not impossible. This presentation outlines the analytic challenges facing these organizations and provides a clear path to providing the accelerated insight needed to perform in today’s complex business environment to reduce risk, stop fraud and increase profits. * The value of predictive analytics in Accelerating Insight * Financial Services Analytic Case Studies * Brief Overview of ParAccel Analytic Database

Length – 09:06 | Email to a Colleague

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TOPIC: BUSINESS VALUE
Case Study: Monster.com
Creating Global Competitive Power with Predictive Analytics 

Jean Paul Isson, Vice President, Globab BI & Predictive Analytics, Monster Worldwide

Using Predictive analytics to gain a deeper understanding of customer behaviours, increase marketing ROI and drive growth

- Creating global competitive power with business intelligence: Making the right decisions – at the right time

- Avoiding common change management challenges in sales, marketing, customer service, and products

- Developing a BI vision – and implementing it: successful business intelligence implementation models

- Using predictive analytics as a business driver to stay on top of the competition

- Following the Monster Worldwide global BI evolution: How Monster used BI to go from good to great

Length – 51:17 | Email to a Colleague

Price: $195

 

 

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TOPIC: SURVEY ANALYSIS
Case Study: YMCA
Turning Member Satisfaction Surveys into an Actionable Narrative 

Dean Abbott, President, Abbott Analytics

Employees are a key constituency at the Y and previous analysis has shown that their attitudes have a direct bearing on Member Satisfaction. This session will describe a successful approach for the analysis of YMCA employee surveys. Decision trees are built and examined in depth to identify key questions in describing key employee satisfaction metrics, including several interesting groupings of employee attitudes. Our approach will be contrasted with other factor analysis and regression-based approaches to survey analysis that we used initially. The predictive models described are currently in use and resulted in both greater understanding of employee attitudes, and a revised “short-form” survey with fewer key questions identified by the decision trees as the most important predictors.

Length – 50:19 | Email to a Colleague

Price: $195

 

 

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TOPIC: INDUSTRY TRENDS
2010 Data Minter Survey Results: Highlights
 

Karl Rexer, Ph.D., Rexer Analytics

Do you want to know the views, actions, and opinions of the data mining community? Each year, Rexer Analytics conducts a global survey of data miners to find out. This year at PAW we unveil the results of our 4th Annual Data Miner Survey. This session will present the research highlights, such as:

- Analytic goals & key challenges

- Impact of the economy

- Regional differences

- Text mining trends

Length – 15:20 | Email to a Colleague

Price: $195

 

 

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Multiple Case Studies: U.S. DoD, U.S. DHS, SSA
Text Mining: Lessons Learned 

John F. Elder, Chief Scientist, Elder Research, Inc.

Text Mining is the “Wild West” of data mining and predictive analytics – the potential for gain is huge, the capability claims are often tall tales, and the “land rush” for leadership is very much a race.

In solving unstructured (text) analysis challenges, we found that principles from inductive modeling – learning relationships from labeled cases – has great power to enhance text mining. Dr. Elder highlights key technical breakthroughs discovered while working on projects for leading government agencies, including: Text Mining is the “Wild West” of data mining and predictive analytics – the potential for gain is huge, the capability claims are often tall tales, and the “land rush” for leadership is very much a race.

- Prioritizing searches for the Dept. of Homeland Security

- Quick decisions for Social Security Admin. disability

- Document discovery for the Dept. of Defense

- Disease discovery for the Dept. of Homeland Security

- Risk profiling for the Dept. of Defense

Length – 48:58 | Email to a Colleague

Price: $195

 

 

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Play video of session: Keynote: How Target Gets the Most out of Its Guest Data to Improve Marketing ROI
Keynote: How Target Gets the Most out of Its Guest Data to Improve Marketing ROI 

Andrew Pole, Senior Manager, Media and Database Marketing, Target

In this session, you’ll learn how Target leverages its own internal guest data to optimize its direct marketing – with the ultimate goal of enhancing our guests’ shopping experience and driving in-store and online performance. You will hear about what guest data is available at Target, how and where we collect it, and how it is used to improve the performance and relevance of direct marketing vehicles. Furthermore, we will discuss Target’s development and usage of guest segmentation, response modeling, and optimization as means to suppress poor performers from mailings, determine relevant product categories and services for online targeted content, and optimally assign receipt marketing offers to our guests when offer quantities are limited.

Length – 47:49 | Email to a Colleague

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Play video of session: Platinum Sponsor Presentation: Driving Analytics Into Decision Making
Platinum Sponsor Presentation: Driving Analytics Into Decision Making  

Jason Verlen, Director, SPSS Product Strategy & Management, IBM Software Group

Organizations looking to dramatically improve their business outcomes are turning to decision management, a convergence of technology and business processes that is used to streamline and predict the outcome of daily decision-making. IBM SPSS Decision Management technology provides the critical link between analytical insight and recommended actions. In this session you’ll learn how Decision Management software integrates analytics with business rules and business applications for front-line systems such as call center applications, insurance claim processing, and websites. See how you can improve every customer interaction, minimize operational risk, reduce fraud and optimize results.

Length – 17:29 | Email to a Colleague

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TOPIC: DATA INFRASTRUCTURE AND INTEGRATION
Case Study: Macy’s
The world is not flat (even though modeling software has to think it is) 

Paul Coleman, Director of Marketing Statistics, Macy’s Inc.

Software for statistical modeling generally use flat files, where each record represents a unique case with all its variables. In contrast most large databases are relational, where data are distributed among various normalized tables for efficient storage. Variable creation and model scoring engines are necessary to bridge data mining and storage needs. Development datasets taken from a sampled history require snapshot management. Scoring datasets are taken from the present timeframe and the entire available universe. Organizations, with significant data, must decide when to store or calculate necessary data and understand the consequences for their modeling program.

Length – 34:54 | Email to a Colleague

Price: $195

 

 

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TOPIC: CUSTOMER VALUE
Case Study: SunTrust
When One Model Will Not Solve the Problem – Using Multiple Models to Create One Solution 

Dudley Gwaltney, Group Vice President, Analytical Modeling, SunTrust Bank

In 2007, SunTrust Bank developed a series of models to identify clients likely to have large changes in deposit balances. The models include three basic binary and two linear regression models.

Based on the models, 15% of SunTrust clients were targeted as those most likely to have large balance changes. These clients accounted for 65% of the absolute balance change and 60% of the large balance change clients. The targeted clients are grouped into a portfolio and assigned to individual SunTrust Retail Branch. Since 2008, the portfolio generated a 2.6% increase in balances over control.

Using the SunTrust example, this presentation will focus on:

- Identifying situations requiring multiple models

- Determining what types of models are needed

- Combining the individual component models into one output

Length – 48:22 | Email to a Colleague

Price: $195

 

 

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TOPIC: RESPONSE & CROSS-SELL
Case Study: Paychex
Staying One Step Ahead of the Competition – Development of a Predictive 401(k) Marketing and Sales Campaign 

Jason Fox, Information Systems and Portfolio Manager,Paychex

In-depth case study of Paychex, Inc. utilizing predictive modeling to turn the tides on competitive pressures within their own client base. Paychex, a leading provider of payroll and human resource solutions, will guide you through the development of a Predictive 401(k) Marketing and Sales model. Through the use of sophisticated data mining techniques and regression analysis the model derives the probability a client will add retirement services products with Paychex or with a competitor. Session will include roadblocks that could have ended development and ROI analysis. Speaker: Frank Fiorille, Director of Enterprise Risk Management, Paychex Speaker: Jason Fox, Risk Management Analyst, Paychex

Length – 26:29 | Email to a Colleague

Price: $195

 

 

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TOPIC: SEGMENTATION
Practitioner: Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce
Segmentation Do’s and Don’ts 

Daymond Ling, Senior Director, Modelling & Analytics,Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce

The concept of Segmentation is well accepted in business and has withstood the test of time. Even with the advent of new artificial intelligence and machine learning methods, this old war horse still has its place and is alive and well. Like all analytical methods, when used correctly it can lead to enhanced market positioning and competitive advantage, while improper application can have severe negative consequences.

This session will explore what are the elements of success, and what are the worse practices that lead to failure. The relationship between segmentation and predictive modeling will also be discussed to clarify when it is appropriate to use one versus the other, and how to use them together synergistically.

Length – 45:57 | Email to a Colleague

Price: $195

 

 

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TOPIC: SOCIAL DATA
Thought Leadership
Social Network Analysis: Killer Application for Cloud Analytics
 

James Kobielus, Senior Analyst, Forrester Research

Social networks such as Twitter and Facebook are a potential goldmine of insights on what is truly going through customers´minds. Every company wants to know whether, how, how often, and by whom they´re being mentioned across the billowing new cloud of social media. Just as important, every company wants to influence those discussions in their favor, target new business, and harvest maximum revenue potential. In this session, Forrester analyst James Kobielus identifies fruitful applications of social network analysis in customer service, sales, marketing, and brand management. He presents a roadmap for enterprises to leverage their inline analytics initiatives and leverage high-performance data warehousing (DW) clouds and appliances in order to analyze shifting patterns of customer sentiment, influence, and propensity. Leveraging Forrester’s ongoing research in advanced analytics and customer relationship management, Kobielus will discuss industry trends, commercial modeling tools, and emerging best practices in social network analysis, which represents a game-changing new discipline in predictive analytics.

Length – 48:16 | Email to a Colleague

Price: $195

 

 

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TOPIC: HEALTHCARE – INTERNATIONAL TARGETING
Case Study: Life Line Screening
Taking CRM Global Through Predictive Analytics 

Ozgur Dogan,
VP, Quantitative Solutions Group, Merkle Inc

Trish Mathe,
Director of Database Marketing, Life Line Screening

While Life Line is successfully executing a US CRM roadmap, they are also beginning this same evolution abroad. They are beginning in the UK where Merkle procured data and built a response model that is pulling responses over 30% higher than competitors. This presentation will give an overview of the US CRM roadmap, and then focus on the beginning of their strategy abroad, focusing on the data procurement they could not get anywhere else but through Merkle and the successful modeling and analytics for the UK. Speaker: Ozgur Dogan, VP, Quantitative Solutions Group, Merkle Inc Speaker: Trish Mathe, Director of Database Marketing, Life Line Screening

Length – 40:12 | Email to a Colleague

Price: $195

 

 

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TOPIC: SURVEY ANALYSIS
Case Study: Forrester
Making Survey Insights Addressable and Scalable – The Case Study of Forrester’s Technographics Benchmark Survey 

Nethra Sambamoorthi, Team Leader, Consumer Dynamics & Analytics, Global Consulting, Acxiom Corporation

Marketers use surveys to create enterprise wide applicable strategic insights to: (1) develop segmentation schemes, (2) summarize consumer behaviors and attitudes for the whole US population, and (3) use multiple surveys to draw unified views about their target audience. However, these insights are not directly addressable and scalable to the whole consumer universe which is very important when applying the power of survey intelligence to the one to one consumer marketing problems marketers routinely face. Acxiom partnered with Forrester Research, creating addressable and scalable applications of Forrester’s Technographics Survey and applied it successfully to a number of industries and applications.

Length – 39:23 | Email to a Colleague

Price: $195

 

 

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TOPIC: HEALTHCARE
Case Study: UPMC Health Plan
A Predictive Model for Hospital Readmissions 

Scott Zasadil, Senior Scientist, UPMC Health Plan

Hospital readmissions are a significant component of our nation’s healthcare costs. Predicting who is likely to be readmitted is a challenging problem. Using a set of 123,951 hospital discharges spanning nearly three years, we developed a model that predicts an individual’s 30-day readmission should they incur a hospital admission. The model uses an ensemble of boosted decision trees and prior medical claims and captures 64% of all 30-day readmits with a true positive rate of over 27%. Moreover, many of the ‘false’ positives are simply delayed true positives. 53% of the predicted 30-day readmissions are readmitted within 180 days.

Length – 54:18 | Email to a Colleague

Price: $195

An Introduction to Data Mining-online book

I was reading David Smith’s blog http://blog.revolutionanalytics.com/

where he mentioned this interview of Norman Nie, at TDWI

http://tdwi.org/Articles/2010/11/17/R-101.aspx?Page=2-

where I saw this link (its great if you want to study Data Mining btw)

http://www.kdnuggets.com/education/usa-canada.html -

and I c/liked the U Toronto link

http://chem-eng.utoronto.ca/~datamining/

Best of All- I really liked this online book created by Professor S. Sayad

Its succinct and beautiful and describes all of the Data Mining you want to read in one Map (actually 4 images painstakingly assembled with perfection)

The best thing is- in the original map- even the sub items are click-able for specifics like Pie Chart and Stacked Column chart are not in one simple drop down like Charts- but rather by nature of the kind of variables that lead to these charts. For doing that- you would need to go to the site itself- ( see http://chem-eng.utoronto.ca/~datamining/dmc/categorical_variables.htm

vs

http://chem-eng.utoronto.ca/~datamining/dmc/categorical_numerical.htm

Again- there is no mention of the data visualization software used to create the images but I think I can take a hint from the Software Page which says software used are-

Software

See it on your own-online book (c)Professor S. Sayad

Really good DIY tutorial

http://chem-eng.utoronto.ca/~datamining/dmc/data_mining_map.htm

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