Software as a Religion ( SaaR)

The decline of organized religion and debate about such matters in the Western Hemisphere has been co-related to the increase in debates and arguments (again mostly) in the Western Hemisphere on software. Be it the PC vs Mac, the Microsofties vs Open Sourcers, the not so evil Google versus fans of Facebook, considerable activity is now being done by human beings in terms of social interaction on the merit’s and demerit’s of each software bundle. Perhaps for the first time in human history these interactions are being captured digitally on medium (that is hopefully longer lasting than papyrus).

Will this lead to newer branches of psychologists, sociologists (Goodwin’s law is too simplistic but an effort)

Even software as a religion is plausible, all they need is another college drop-put whizkid  to find a way to make it effective.

Religion as a software has of course been around for several millennium.

Also see http://goo.gl/smISa

Newer Doctrines for Newer Wars

On the Memorial Day, some thoughts on the convergence of revolutions in technology and war fare-

 

War – 

War is an openly declared state of organized conflict, typified by extreme aggression, societal disruption, and high mortality

1) Disrupting command and control objects is the primary stage of attack. Evading detection of your own command and control objects while retaining secure channels of communication with redundant lines of control is the primary stage of defense.

2) Pre emptive strikes are in. Reactive all out wars are out. Countries will no longer “declare war” before going to war. They already dont.

3) Commando /Special Forces/Terror strikes /Guerrilla warfare weapons, tactics and technology will have a big demand. So will be specialist trainers.

4) Improving the predictability of your own detect and destroy mechanisms, and disrupting the predictability of enemy detect and react mechanisms will be hugely in- even more than commissioning one more submarine and one more aircraft type.

5) Countries will revert to ancient tribal paradigms in fast shifting alliances for economics as well as geo politics. Very stupidly religion can be  factor in warfare even in the 21 st century.

 

6) Number of Kills per Weapons fired will converge to a constant .  Risks of secondary collateral damage will need to have a higher weight-age because they spur more retal attacks. Fewer prisoner of wars, higher KIA/ MIA ratio.

7) Fewer civilian casualties than all previous wars. This includes fewer civilian casualties even in nuclear war than previous nuclear scenarios.

8) War is a business. It will not be allowed to disrupt global supply chains for more than 2-3 weeks (or inventory replenishment of critical goods and /or services). commodities will lead to wars explicitly, especially since nuclear energy is discredited and carbon energy is diminishing. Expect synchronization with financial derivatives activity. War futures anyone.

9) The Geneva Convention is overdue for an update. Call it Geneva Convention 3.0 United Nations will remain critical to preventing or hastening global conflicts (remember the league of extra ordinary nations .)

10) Economic weapons, climate changing weapons, and sky weapons will emerge. Expect newer kinds of gun powder to be invented. Cyber weapons and hackers will be in demand . Thats the only bright spot.

Happy Memorial Day.

 

Enjoy that freedom to eat an barbecue- it was paid for in more blood than you will ever care to know.

 

Cognitive Biases exploited by Spammers and Phishers

"Keep Walking"

Since they day you arrive on this planet, you are programmed into accepting reality as good and bad.

Beautiful people good. Ugly people not good.

Fellow countrymen good. Fellow earthling not so good.

Same religion is good. Different religion is awkward.

These cognitive biases are exploited in social media in the following manner-

1) Same Name Bias- You like people of the same name as you. or people who remind you of your brothers name. or uncles name.

All that information is already known. Esp true on Linkedin.

2) Same Orientation Bias- People tend to react better to photos considered attractive of opposite sex / opposite preference. Especially true on Twitter and Facebook.

3) Nationality Bias- Israeli Americans tend to respond better to Jewish looking phishers who claim to be from Israel but are not. Ditto for Indians- Arabs etc. E|sp true on Linkedin and Facebook.

You are positively biased to people of same country or of friendly nation states and will likely accept invites/friend/poke

4) Same organization/ alumni bias- People at end of phishing attack will have higher response rate if proxy identity claims familiarity with organizations or schools attended. Especially true on Facebook and Linkedin.

5) Same interests/movies/books bias- Your likely response rate is higher to someone who has seen your profile page on Facebook for interests, and checked the RSS stream of your tweets for stuff you like.

Bias is just maths. Period.