On the Memorial Day, some thoughts on the convergence of revolutions in technology and war fare-
War is an openly declared state of organized conflict, typified by extreme aggression, societal disruption, and high mortality
1) Disrupting command and control objects is the primary stage of attack. Evading detection of your own command and control objects while retaining secure channels of communication with redundant lines of control is the primary stage of defense.
2) Pre emptive strikes are in. Reactive all out wars are out. Countries will no longer “declare war” before going to war. They already dont.
3) Commando /Special Forces/Terror strikes /Guerrilla warfare weapons, tactics and technology will have a big demand. So will be specialist trainers.
4) Improving the predictability of your own detect and destroy mechanisms, and disrupting the predictability of enemy detect and react mechanisms will be hugely in- even more than commissioning one more submarine and one more aircraft type.
5) Countries will revert to ancient tribal paradigms in fast shifting alliances for economics as well as geo politics. Very stupidly religion can be factor in warfare even in the 21 st century.
6) Number of Kills per Weapons fired will converge to a constant . Risks of secondary collateral damage will need to have a higher weight-age because they spur more retal attacks. Fewer prisoner of wars, higher KIA/ MIA ratio.
7) Fewer civilian casualties than all previous wars. This includes fewer civilian casualties even in nuclear war than previous nuclear scenarios.
8) War is a business. It will not be allowed to disrupt global supply chains for more than 2-3 weeks (or inventory replenishment of critical goods and /or services). commodities will lead to wars explicitly, especially since nuclear energy is discredited and carbon energy is diminishing. Expect synchronization with financial derivatives activity. War futures anyone.
9) The Geneva Convention is overdue for an update. Call it Geneva Convention 3.0 United Nations will remain critical to preventing or hastening global conflicts (remember the league of extra ordinary nations .)
10) Economic weapons, climate changing weapons, and sky weapons will emerge. Expect newer kinds of gun powder to be invented. Cyber weapons and hackers will be in demand . Thats the only bright spot.
Happy Memorial Day.
Enjoy that freedom to eat an barbecue- it was paid for in more blood than you will ever care to know.