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Visual Guides to CRISP-DM ,KDD and SEMMA

April 10, 2013 2:22 am / 1 Comment

UPDATED- Here are three great examples of a visualization making a process easy to understand. Please click on the images to read them clearly.

1) It visualizes CRISP-DM and is made by Nicole Leaper (http://exde.wordpress.com/2009/03/13/a-visual-guide-to-crisp-dm-methodology/)

2) KDD -Knowledge Discovery in Databases -visualization by Fayyad whom I have interviewed here at http://www.decisionstats.com/interview-dr-usama-fayyad-founder-open-insights-llc/

and work By Gregory Piatetsky Shapiro interviewed by this website here

http://decisionstats.com/2009/08/13/interview-gregory-piatetsky-kdnuggets-com/

3) I am also attaching a visual representation of SEMMA from http://www.dataprix.net/en/blogs/respinosamilla/theory-data-mining

Data Frame in Python

August 22, 2012 4:35 am / Leave a Comment

Exploring some Python Packages and R packages to move /work with both Python and R without melting your brain or exceeding your project deadline

—————————————

If you liked the data.frame structure in R, you have some way to work with them at a faster processing speed in Python.

Here are three packages that enable you to do so-

(1) pydataframe http://code.google.com/p/pydataframe/

An implemention of an almost R like DataFrame object. (install via Pypi/Pip: “pip install pydataframe”)

Usage:

        u = DataFrame( { "Field1": [1, 2, 3],
                        "Field2": ['abc', 'def', 'hgi']},
                        optional:
                         ['Field1', 'Field2']
                         ["rowOne", "rowTwo", "thirdRow"])

A DataFrame is basically a table with rows and columns.

Columns are named, rows are numbered (but can be named) and can be easily selected and calculated upon. Internally, columns are stored as 1d numpy arrays. If you set row names, they’re converted into a dictionary for fast access. There is a rich subselection/slicing API, see help(DataFrame.get_item) (it also works for setting values). Please note that any slice get’s you another DataFrame, to access individual entries use get_row(), get_column(), get_value().

DataFrames also understand basic arithmetic and you can either add (multiply,…) a constant value, or another DataFrame of the same size / with the same column names, like this:

#multiply every value in ColumnA that is smaller than 5 by 6.
my_df[my_df[:,'ColumnA'] < 5, 'ColumnA'] *= 6

#you always need to specify both row and column selectors, use : to mean everything
my_df[:, 'ColumnB'] = my_df[:,'ColumnA'] + my_df[:, 'ColumnC']

#let's take every row that starts with Shu in ColumnA and replace it with a new list (comprehension)
select = my_df.where(lambda row: row['ColumnA'].startswith('Shu'))
my_df[select, 'ColumnA'] = [row['ColumnA'].replace('Shu', 'Sha') for row in my_df[select,:].iter_rows()]

Dataframes talk directly to R via rpy2 (rpy2 is not a prerequiste for the library!)

(2) pandas http://pandas.pydata.org/

Library Highlights

A fast and efficient DataFrame object for data manipulation with integrated indexing;
Tools for reading and writing data between in-memory data structures and different formats: CSV and text files, Microsoft Excel, SQL databases, and the fast HDF5 format;
Intelligent data alignment and integrated handling of missing data: gain automatic label-based alignment in computations and easily manipulate messy data into an orderly form;
Flexible reshaping and pivoting of data sets;
Intelligent label-based slicing, fancy indexing, and subsetting of large data sets;
Columns can be inserted and deleted from data structures for size mutability;
Aggregating or transforming data with a powerful group by engine allowing split-apply-combine operations on data sets;
High performance merging and joining of data sets;
Hierarchical axis indexing provides an intuitive way of working with high-dimensional data in a lower-dimensional data structure;
Time series-functionality: date range generation and frequency conversion, moving window statistics, moving window linear regressions, date shifting and lagging. Even create domain-specific time offsets and join time series without losing data;
The library has been ruthlessly optimized for performance, with critical code paths compiled to C;
Python with pandas is in use in a wide variety of academic and commercial domains, including Finance, Neuroscience, Economics, Statistics, Advertising, Web Analytics, and more.

Why not R?

First of all, we love open source R! It is the most widely-used open source environment for statistical modeling and graphics, and it provided some early inspiration for pandas features. R users will be pleased to find this library adopts some of the best concepts of R, like the foundational DataFrame (one user familiar with R has described pandas as “R data.frame on steroids”). But pandas also seeks to solve some frustrations common to R users:

R has barebones data alignment and indexing functionality, leaving much work to the user. pandas makes it easy and intuitive to work with messy, irregularly indexed data, like time series data. pandas also provides rich tools, like hierarchical indexing, not found in R;
R is not well-suited to general purpose programming and system development. pandas enables you to do large-scale data processing seamlessly when developing your production applications;
Hybrid systems connecting R to a low-productivity systems language like Java, C++, or C# suffer from significantly reduced agility and maintainability, and you’re still stuck developing the system components in a low-productivity language;
The “copyleft” GPL license of R can create concerns for commercial software vendors who want to distribute R with their software under another license. Python and pandas use more permissive licenses.

(3) datamatrix http://pypi.python.org/pypi/datamatrix/0.8

datamatrix 0.8

A Pythonic implementation of R’s data.frame structure.

Latest Version: 0.9

This module allows access to comma- or other delimiter separated files as if they were tables, using a dictionary-like syntax. DataMatrix objects can be manipulated, rows and columns added and removed, or even transposed

—————————————————————–

Modeling in Python

(more…)

Using Rapid Miner and R for Sports Analytics #rstats

August 10, 2012 7:51 am / Leave a Comment

Rapid Miner has been one of the oldest open source analytics software, long long before open source or even analytics was considered a fashion buzzword. The Rapid Miner software has been a pioneer in many areas (like establishing a marketplace for Rapid Miner Extensions) and the Rapid Miner -R extension was one of the most promising enablers of using R in an enterprise setting.

The following interview was taken with a manager of analytics for a sports organization. The sports organization considers analytics as a strategic differentiator , hence the name is confidential. No part of the interview has been edited or manipulated.

Ajay- Why did you choose Rapid Miner and R? What were the other software alternatives you considered and discarded?

Analyst- We considered most of the other major players in statistics/data mining or enterprise BI. However, we found that the value proposition for an open source solution was too compelling to justify the premium pricing that the commercial solutions would have required. The widespread adoption of R and the variety of packages and algorithms available for it, made it an easy choice. We liked RapidMiner as a way to design structured, repeatable processes, and the ability to optimize learner parameters in a systematic way. It also handled large data sets better than R on 32-bit Windows did. The GUI, particularly when 5.0 was released, made it more usable than R for analysts who weren’t experienced programmers.

Ajay- What analytics do you do think Rapid Miner and R are best suited for?

Analyst- We use RM+R mainly for sports analysis so far, rather than for more traditional business applications. It has been quite suitable for that, and I can easily see how it would be used for other types of applications.

Ajay- Any experiences as an enterprise customer? How was the installation process? How good is the enterprise level support?

Analyst- Rapid-I has been one of the most responsive tech companies I’ve dealt with, either in my current role or with previous employers. They are small enough to be able to respond quickly to requests, and in more than one case, have fixed a problem, or added a small feature we needed within a matter of days. In other cases, we have contracted with them to add larger pieces of specific functionality we needed at reasonable consulting rates. Those features are added to the mainline product, and become fully supported through regular channels. The longer consulting projects have typically had a turnaround of just a few weeks.

Ajay- What challenges if any did you face in executing a pure open source analytics bundle ?

Analyst- As Rapid-I is a smaller company based in Europe, the availability of training and consulting in the USA isn’t as extensive as for the major enterprise software players, and the time zone differences sometimes slow down the communications cycle. There were times where we were the first customer to attempt a specific integration point in our technical environment, and with no prior experiences to fall back on, we had to work with Rapid-I to figure out how to do it. Compared to the what traditional software vendors provide, both R and RM tend to have sparse, terse, occasionally incomplete documentation. The situation is getting better, but still lags behind what the traditional enterprise software vendors provide.

Ajay- What are the things you can do in R ,and what are the things you prefer to do in Rapid Miner (comparison for technical synergies)

Analyst- Our experience has been that RM is superior to R at writing and maintaining structured processes, better at handling larger amounts of data, and more flexible at fine-tuning model parameters automatically. The biggest limitation we’ve had with RM compared to R is that R has a larger library of user-contributed packages for additional data mining algorithms. Sometimes we opted to use R because RM hadn’t yet implemented a specific algorithm. The introduction the R extension has allowed us to combine the strengths of both tools in a very logical and productive way.

In particular, extending RapidMiner with R helped address RM’s weakness in the breadth of algorithms, because it brings the entire R ecosystem into RM (similar to how Rapid-I implemented much of the Weka library early on in RM’s development). Further, because the R user community releases packages that implement new techniques faster than the enterprise vendors can, this helps turn a potential weakness into a potential strength. However, R packages tend to be of varying quality, and are more prone to go stale due to lack of support/bug fixes. This depends heavily on the package’s maintainer and its prevalence of use in the R community. So when RapidMiner has a learner with a native implementation, it’s usually better to use it than the R equivalent.

Interview Rob J Hyndman Forecasting Expert #rstats

August 9, 2012 12:08 pm / 2 Comments

Here is an interview with Prof Rob J Hyndman who has created many time series forecasting methods and authored books as well as R packages on the same.

Ajay -Describe your journey from being a student of science to a Professor. What were some key turning points along that journey?

Rob- I started a science honours degree at the University of Melbourne in 1985. By the end of 1985 I found myself simultaneously working as a statistical consultant (having completed all of one year of statistics courses!). For the next three years I studied mathematics, statistics and computer science at university, and tried to learn whatever I needed to in order to help my growing group of clients. Often we would cover things in classes that I’d already taught myself through my consulting work. That really set the trend for the rest of my career. I’ve always been an academic on the one hand, and a statistical consultant on the other. The consulting work has led me to learn a lot of things that I would not otherwise have come across, and has also encouraged me to focus on research problems that are of direct relevance to the clients I work with.

I never set out to be an academic. In fact, I thought that I would get a job in the business world as soon as I finished my degree. But once I completed the degree, I was offered a position as a statistical consultant within the University of Melbourne, helping researchers in various disciplines and doing some commercial work. After a year, I was getting bored doing only consulting, and I thought it would be interesting to do a PhD. I was lucky enough to be offered a generous scholarship which meant I was paid more to study than to continue working.

Again, I thought that I would probably go and get a job in the business world after I finished my PhD. But I finished it early and my scholarship was going to be cut off once I submitted my thesis. So instead, I offered to teach classes for free at the university and delayed submitting my thesis until the scholarship period ran out. That turned out to be a smart move because the university saw that I was a good teacher, and offered me a lecturing position starting immediately I submitted my thesis. So I sort of fell into an academic career.

I’ve kept up the consulting work part-time because it is interesting, and it gives me a little extra money. But I’ve also stayed an academic because I love the freedom to be able to work on anything that takes my fancy.

Ajay- Describe your upcoming book on Forecasting.

Rob- My first textbook on forecasting (with Makridakis and Wheelwright) was written a few years after I finished my PhD. It has been very popular, but it costs a lot of money (about $140 on Amazon). I estimate that I get about $1 for every book sold. The rest goes to the publisher (Wiley) and all they do is print, market and distribute it. I even typeset the whole thing myself and they print directly from the files I provided. It is now about 15 years since the book was written and it badly needs updating. I had a choice of writing a new edition with Wiley or doing something completely new. I decided to do a new one, largely because I didn’t want a publisher to make a lot of money out of students using my hard work.

It seems to me that students try to avoid buying textbooks and will search around looking for suitable online material instead. Often the online material is of very low quality and contains many errors.

As I wasn’t making much money on my textbook, and the facilities now exist to make online publishing very easy, I decided to try a publishing experiment. So my new textbook will be online and completely free. So far it is about 2/3 completed and is available at http://otexts.com/fpp/. I am hoping that my co-author (George Athanasopoulos) and I will finish it off before the end of 2012.

The book is intended to provide a comprehensive introduction to forecasting methods. We don’t attempt to discuss the theory much, but provide enough information for people to use the methods in practice. It is tied to the forecast package in R, and we provide code to show how to use the various forecasting methods.

The idea of online textbooks makes a lot of sense. They are continuously updated so if we find a mistake we fix it immediately. Also, we can add new sections, or update parts of the book, as required rather than waiting for a new edition to come out. We can also add richer content including video, dynamic graphics, etc.

For readers that want a print edition, we will be aiming to produce a print version of the book every year (available via Amazon).

I like the idea so much I’m trying to set up a new publishing platform (otexts.com) to enable other authors to do the same sort of thing. It is taking longer than I would like to make that happen, but probably next year we should have something ready for other authors to use.

Ajay- How can we make textbooks cheaper for students as well as compensate authors fairly

Rob- Well free is definitely cheaper, and there are a few businesses trying to make free online textbooks a reality. Apart from my own efforts, http://www.flatworldknowledge.com/ is producing a lot of free textbooks. And textbookrevolution.org is another great resource.

With otexts.com, we will compensate authors in two ways. First, the print versions of a book will be sold (although at a vastly cheaper rate than other commercial publishers). The royalties on print sales will be split 50/50 with the authors. Second, we plan to have some features of each book available for subscription only (e.g., solutions to exercises, some multimedia content, etc.). Again, the subscription fees will be split 50/50 with the authors.

Ajay- Suppose a person who used to use forecasting software from another company decides to switch to R. How easy and lucid do you think the current documentation on R website for business analytics practitioners such as these – in the corporate world.

Rob- The documentation on the R website is not very good for newcomers, but there are a lot of other R resources now available. One of the best introductions is Matloff’s “The Art of R Programming”. Provided someone has done some programming before (e.g., VBA, python or java), learning R is a breeze. The people who have trouble are those who have only ever used menu interfaces such as Excel. Then they are not only learning R, but learning to think about computing in a different way from what they are used to, and that can be tricky. However, it is well worth it. Once you know how to code, you can do so much more. I wish some basic programming was part of every business and statistics degree.

If you are working in a particular area, then it is often best to find a book that uses R in that discipline. For example, if you want to do forecasting, you can use my book (otexts.com/fpp/). Or if you are using R for data visualization, get hold of Hadley Wickham’s ggplot2 book.

Ajay- In a long and storied career- What is the best forecast you ever made ? and the worst?

Rob- Actually, my best work is not so much in making forecasts as in developing new forecasting methodology. I’m very proud of my forecasting models for electricity demand which are now used for all long-term planning of electricity capacity in Australia (see http://robjhyndman.com/papers/peak-electricity-demand/ for the details). Also, my methods for population forecasting (http://robjhyndman.com/papers/stochastic-population-forecasts/ ) are pretty good (in my opinion!). These methods are now used by some national governments (but not Australia!) for their official population forecasts.

Of course, I’ve made some bad forecasts, but usually when I’ve tried to do more than is reasonable given the available data. One of my earliest consulting jobs involved forecasting the sales for a large car manufacturer. They wanted forecasts for the next fifteen years using less than ten years of historical data. I should have refused as it is unreasonable to forecast that far ahead using so little data. But I was young and naive and wanted the work. So I did the forecasts, and they were clearly outside the company’s (reasonable) expectations, and they then refused to pay me. Lesson learned. It’s better to refuse work than do it poorly.

Probably the biggest impact I’ve had is in helping the Australian government forecast the national health budget. In 2001 and 2002, they had underestimated health expenditure by nearly $1 billion in each year which is a lot of money to have to find, even for a national government. I was invited to assist them in developing a new forecasting method, which I did. The new method has forecast errors of the order of plus or minus $50 million which is much more manageable. The method I developed for them was the basis of the ETS models discussed in my 2008 book on exponential smoothing (www.exponentialsmoothing.net)

. And now anyone can use the method with the ets() function in the forecast package for R.

About-

Rob J Hyndman is Professor of Statistics in the Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics at Monash University and Director of the Monash University Business & Economic Forecasting Unit. He is also Editor-in-Chief of the International Journal of Forecasting and a Director of the International Institute of Forecasters. Rob is the author of over 100 research papers in statistical science. In 2007, he received the Moran medal from the Australian Academy of Science for his contributions to statistical research, especially in the area of statistical forecasting. For 25 years, Rob has maintained an active consulting practice, assisting hundreds of companies and organizations. His recent consulting work has involved forecasting electricity demand, tourism demand, the Australian government health budget and case volume at a US call centre.

Anonymous grows up and matures…Anonanalytics.com

July 6, 2012 5:32 am / Leave a Comment

I liked the design, user interfaces and the conceptual ideas behind the latest Anonymous hactivist websites (much better than the shabby graphic design of Wikileaks, or Friends of Wikileaks, though I guess they have been busy what with Julian’s escapades and Syrian emails)

I disagree (and let us agree to disagree some of the time)

with the complete lack of respect for Graphical User Interfaces for tools. If dDOS really took off due to LOIC, why not build a GUI for SQL Injection (or atleats the top 25 vulnerability testing as by this list http://www.sans.org/top25-software-errors/

Shouldnt Tor be embedded within the next generation of Loic.

Automated testing tools are used by companies like Adobe (and others)… so why not create simple GUI for the existing tools.., I may be completely offtrack here.. but I think hacker education has been a critical misstep[ that has undermined Western Democracies preparedness for Cyber tactics by hostile regimes)…. how to create the next generation of hackers by easy tutorials (see codeacademy and build appropriate modules)

-A slick website to be funded by Bitcoins (Money can buy everything including Mastercard and Visa, but Bitcoins are an innovative step towards an internet economy currency)

-A collobrative wiki

http://wiki.echelon2.org/wiki/Main_Page

Seriously dude, why not make this a part of Wikipedia- (i know Jimmy Wales got shifty eyes, but can you trust some1 )

-Analytics for Anonymous (sighs! I should have thought about this earlier)

http://anonanalytics.com/ (can be used to play and bill both sides of corporate espionage and be cyber private investigators)

What We Do

We provide the public with investigative reports exposing corrupt companies. Our team includes analysts, forensic accountants, statisticians, computer experts, and lawyers from various jurisdictions and backgrounds. All information presented in our reports is acquired through legal channels, fact-checked, and vetted thoroughly before release. This is both for the protection of our associates as well as groups/individuals who rely on our work.

_and lastly creative content for Pinterest.com and Public Relations ( what next-? Tom Cruise to play Julian Assange in the new Movie ?)

http://www.par-anoia.net/ />Potentially Alarming Research: Anonymous Intelligence AgencyInformation is and will be free. Expect it. ~ Anonymous

Links of interest

Latest Scientology Mails (Austria)
Full FBI call transcript
Arrest Tracker
HBGary Email Viewer
The Pirate Bay Proxy
We Are Anonymous – Book
To be announced…

Google Cloud is finally here

June 30, 2012 11:34 am / Leave a Comment

Amazon gets some competition, and customers should see some relief, unless Google withdraws commitment on these products after a few years of trying (like it often does now!)

http://cloud.google.com/products/index.html

Machine Type Pricing
Configuration	Virtual Cores	Memory	GCEU *	Local disk	Price/Hour	$/GCEU/hour
n1-standard-1-d	1	3.75GB ***	2.75	420GB ***	$0.145	0.053
n1-standard-2-d	2	7.5GB	5.5	870GB	$0.29	0.053
n1-standard-4-d	4	15GB	11	1770GB	$0.58	0.053
n1-standard-8-d	8	30GB	22	2 x 1770GB	$1.16	0.053

Network Pricing
Ingress	Free
Egress to the same Zone.	Free
Egress to a different Cloud service within the same Region.	Free
Egress to a different Zone in the same Region (per GB)	$0.01
Egress to a different Region within the US	$0.01 ****
Inter-continental Egress	At Internet Egress Rate

Internet Egress (Americas/EMEA destination) per GB
0-1 TB in a month	$0.12
1-10 TB	$0.11
10+ TB	$0.08

Internet Egress (APAC destination) per GB
0-1 TB in a month	$0.21
1-10 TB	$0.18
10+ TB	$0.15

Persistent Disk Pricing
Provisioned space	$0.10 GB/month
Snapshot storage**	$0.125 GB/month
IO Operations	$0.10 per million

IP Address Pricing
Static IP address (assigned but unused)	$0.01 per hour
Ephemeral IP address (attached to instance)	Free

* GCEU is Google Compute Engine Unit — a measure of computational power of our instances based on industry benchmarks; review the GCEU definition for more information
** coming soon
*** 1GB is defined as 2^30 bytes
**** promotional pricing; eventually will be charged at internet download rates

Google Prediction API

Tap into Google’s machine learning algorithms to analyze data and predict future outcomes.

Leverage machine learning without the complexity
Use the familiar RESTful interface
Enter input in any format – numeric or text

Build smart apps

Learn how you can use Prediction API to build customer sentiment analysis, spam detection or document and email classification.

Google Translation API

Use Google Translate API to build multilingual apps and programmatically translate text in your webpage or application.

Translate text into other languages programmatically
Use the familiar RESTful interface
Take advantage of Google’s powerful translation algorithms

Build multilingual apps

Learn how you can use Translate API to build apps that can programmatically translate text in your applications or websites.

Google BigQuery

Analyze Big Data in the cloud using SQL and get real-time business insights in seconds using Google BigQuery. Use a fully-managed data analysis service with no servers to install or maintain.
Figure

Reliable & Secure

Complete peace of mind as your data is automatically replicated across multiple sites and secured using access control lists.
Scale infinitely

You can store up to hundreds of terabytes, paying only for what you use.
Blazing fast

Run ad hoc SQL queries on
multi-terabyte datasets in seconds.

Google App Engine

Create apps on Google’s platform that are easy to manage and scale. Benefit from the same systems and infrastructure that power Google’s applications.

Focus on your apps

Let us worry about the underlying infrastructure and systems.
Scale infinitely

See your applications scale seamlessly from hundreds to millions of users.
Business ready

Premium paid support and 99.95% SLA for business users

Webscraping using iMacros

May 26, 2012 3:44 pm / Leave a Comment

The noted Diamonds dataset in the ggplot2 package of R is actually culled from the website http://www.diamondse.info/diamond-prices.asp

However it has ~55000 diamonds, while the whole Diamonds search engine has almost ten times that number. Using iMacros – a Google Chrome Plugin, we can scrape that data (or almost any data). The iMacros chrome plugin is available at https://chrome.google.com/webstore/detail/cplklnmnlbnpmjogncfgfijoopmnlemp while notes on coding are at http://wiki.imacros.net

Imacros makes coding as easy as recording macro and the code is automatcially generated for whatever actions you do. You can set parameters to extract only specific parts of the website, and code can be run into a loop (of 9999 times!)

Here is the iMacros code-Note you need to navigate to the web site http://www.diamondse.info/diamond-prices.asp before running it

VERSION BUILD=5100505 RECORDER=CR
FRAME F=1
SET !EXTRACT_TEST_POPUP NO
SET !ERRORIGNORE YES
TAG POS=6 TYPE=TABLE ATTR=TXT:* EXTRACT=TXT
TAG POS=1 TYPE=DIV ATTR=CLASS:paginate_enabled_next
SAVEAS TYPE=EXTRACT FOLDER=* FILE=test+3

and voila- all the diamonds you need to analyze!

The returning data can be read using the standard delimiter data munging in the language of SAS or R.

Description

Automate your web browser. Record and replay repetitious work

If you encounter any problems with iMacros for Chrome, please let us know in our Chrome user forum at http://forum.iopus.com/viewforum.php?f=21

Our forum is also the best place for new feature suggestions  
----

iMacros was designed to automate the most repetitious tasks on the web. If there’s an activity you have to do repeatedly, just record it in iMacros. The next time you need to do it, the entire macro will run at the click of a button! With iMacros, you can quickly and easily fill out web forms, remember passwords, create a webmail notifier, and more. You can keep the macros on your computer for your own use, use them within bookmark sync / Xmarks or share them with others by embedding them on your homepage, blog, company Intranet or any social bookmarking service as bookmarklet. The uses are limited only by your imagination!

Popular uses are as web macro recorder, form filler on steroids and highly-secure password manager (256-bit AES encryption).

DECISION STATS

Tag Archives: easy

Visual Guides to CRISP-DM ,KDD and SEMMA

Data Frame in Python

Library Highlights

Why not R?

Using Rapid Miner and R for Sports Analytics #rstats

Interview Rob J Hyndman Forecasting Expert #rstats

Anonymous grows up and matures…Anonanalytics.com

Links of interest

Webscraping using iMacros

Description

Automate your web browser. Record and replay repetitious work

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